College Football Week 12 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Under-the-Radar Plays (2022)
After going 0-3 in Week 10, we bounced back with a 2-0 effort in Week 11. It’s hard to believe that we’ve only got two more weeks left in the regular season. However, this column will continue into conference championship week and the beginning of bowl season. So we’ve still got plenty of time to keep the winning going.
The Week 12 slate isn’t filled with many marquee matchups, as many teams prepare for upcoming rivalry games next week. Let’s get into my favorite under-the-radar plays for the regular season’s penultimate weekend.
2022 season record: 21-15-1
Check out Thor Nystrom's Week 12 College Football Power Rankings >>
Duke Blue Devils at Pittsburgh Panthers (-7.5) | Total 50.5
Second place in the ACC Coastal division will be on the line when the Blue Devils and Panthers square off in Pittsburgh. Duke is having a tremendous year in coach Mike Elko’s debut season, while Pitt has fallen off a bit after losing quarterback Kenny Pickett and receiver Jordan Addison.
This game is an interesting strength vs. strength battle. Both teams possess top 50 rush offenses that’ll go up against top 30 run defenses. The problem is Pitt’s passing game might not be good enough to exploit a Duke secondary that ranks 78th in yards allowed per pass attempt.
Points could be a premium in a game featuring two defensive-minded head coaches. I also don’t mind taking the underdog against Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi, who is 15-26-1 as a home favorite during his tenure.
The pick: Under 50.5 (-105) | Lean Duke +7.5 (down to +7) (-105)
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-3) at Charlotte 49ers | Total 64.5
This is an ugly game between two teams that are going nowhere this season. But that’s why gambling was invented, right? Charlotte has shown a pulse since firing its head coach a few weeks ago and will get a chance to end a dismal season on a high note against a Bulldogs team that ruined its chance of becoming bowl-eligible last week.
Charlotte doesn’t have much, but it has a good offense that should put up points against a Bulldogs defense, giving up more than 470 yards per game. Charlotte’s defense is actually worse (496 ypg allowed), but Louisiana Tech’s offense is limited without starting quarterback Parker McNeil, who will miss this game.
I expect the 49ers to come out with plenty of energy at home in their final game of the year, while Louisiana Tech may just be playing out the string.
The pick: Charlotte +3 (-120)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Auburn Tigers (-5.5) | Total 53
Auburn cashed for us last week and continues to play hard under interim head coach Cadillac Williams. You would think Auburn wouldn’t put much effort into a game against Western Kentucky with the Iron Bowl on deck. But at 4-6, Auburn still has a chance at bowl eligibility with a victory.
Western Kentucky, meanwhile, is sort of in a trickier spot. The Hilltoppers are already bowl-eligible but are still fighting to qualify for the Conference USA title game. To do so, they need to win next week at Florida Atlantic and get some help. I’m not saying WKU won’t try in this one, but the Hilltoppers might actually have bigger fish to fry next week.
This is also a pretty good matchup for Auburn, who excels in pass defense. The Tigers rank 19th in yards per attempt allowed and 25th in Success Rate. That’s ideal against a Western Kentucky offense that almost exclusively throws and ranks fourth in the nation in doing so.
I also expect Auburn’s offense to find success on the ground against a Hilltoppers rush defense that’s decent against the run but not close to the caliber of some of Auburn’s SEC opponents.
The pick: Auburn -5.5 (-110)
Colorado State Rams at Air Force Falcons (-22), Total 43.5
This game is gross, but it fits one of the few general betting rules I abide to: Fade service academies laying big numbers. Air Force, Army and Navy all utilize triple option offenses that keep the clock running and limit possessions. That lack of possessions makes it much harder for these schools to cover as big favorites.
Colorado State isn’t good, as its lone wins have come against Nevada and Hawaii, who are miserable. But the Rams are starting to figure things out under first-year coach Jay Norvell. Colorado State covered and out-gained San Jose State two weeks ago before losing by 1 to Wyoming in a game they probably should’ve won.
The Rams don’t have an elite run defense, allowing 4.18 yards per carry. However, defending the run is the strength of this defense. And Colorado State should be able to move the ball through the air against a Falcons pass defense that isn’t great in coverage. Air Force is 5-5 as a favorite this year, but this spread feels a touch too high against an improving Rams team. It isn’t pretty, but I’ll trust Colorado State to keep this within three possessions.
The pick: Colorado State +22 (down to +21) (-110)
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