Top 5 College Football Week 12 Picks & Predictions (2024)
College football betting expert Scott Bogman will provide his top picks and predictions for each and every week of CFB action. Let’s get ready for this weekend’s games with Bogman’s best college football bets for Week 12. Check out all of his top picks and predictions below.
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College Football Week 12 Picks & Predictions
UCLA vs. Washington
The Under is showing significant value, and these teams have combined to go 14-5 in playing to the Under this season. UCLA has played well recently, winning three straight after a brutal stretch (#1 Strength of Schedule) to start the season. However, UCLA has passed at a 63.7% clip this year, but Washington defending the pass well (3rd in passing yards allowed per game, 21st in pass TDs allowed, and grade 11th in Coverage) makes this a more challenging game for UCLA. Washington has struggled recently, going 1-3 in their last four games, and 26 is their highest team total in that stretch. Washington has played much better at home this season. The Huskies have been struggling on offense, but Washington State's 24 points is the most they have allowed at home. Washington should be expected to put their best effort forward as they need one more win to qualify for a Bowl game, and the only game left after this is on the road at #1 Oregon in two weeks. Washington is 2-8 ATS this season and is hard to trust but with so much on the line, home-field advantage, nasty weather, and desperation the Under seems like a very reasonable play against a traveling UCLA team, even riding a hot streak.
Pick: UNDER 46.5
Utah vs. Colorado
Utah at Colorado has a very strange kick time of 10 am local time, one of the many reasons the Under is in play. The kick time is weird because it makes everything for the players (and fans) feel slightly 'off' and might lead to a sluggish start for both teams. Utah has been playing great defense to stay in games. Even BYU hadn't had a game total below 60 in their previous four games, and then only 43 against Utah, 31 was the total with Houston, a 13-7 loss to TCU that had averaged 68.8 points total in Big 12 matchups. The 27 Utah gave up to Arizona State is the most they have given up all year, and they lost all those games just discussed. The offense for Utah is the Achilles heel as they are below average statistically in scoring, total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, and all PFFoffensive grades outside of Blocking. QB Brandon Rose had the Utes offense trending in the right direction, and he is now injured and will miss the rest of the season, leaving them with Isaac Wilson returning under center. Colorado will put up some points, but they will have to do the heavy lifting against what is likely the best defense they have played this season. The early start, strong defense from both sides, and an ugly offense from Utah make the Under a strong play in this game.
Pick: UNDER 46.5
Oregon vs. Wisconsin
This is a big line at 14 points, but Oregon has been covering these large lines since the Ohio State victory, including lines of 30.5 (@ Purdue), 21.5 (vs. Illinois), and 14.5 (@ Michigan). The Ducks didn't cover 24 vs Maryland, but they have covered every spread under 17.5 points this year. Wisconsin is a middling Big 10 team with a decent record, but in their four losses this season, they have failed to cover in any of them including at home against Alabama and Penn State. Wisconsin has been strong in defending the pass, but the pass offenses they have faced haven't been top-notch. Iowa, Northwestern, Purdue, and Western Michigan all rank below 99th in Passing Offense, but Alabama, USC, and Penn State are the only above-average passing offenses Wisconsin has faced, and they didn't beat this spread against any of them. Oregon. The Ducks will be down WR Tez Johnson but RB Jordan James was able to play last week and the Oregon defense should not have a hard time handling backup QB Braedyn Locke. Locke is 4th of 112 qualified QBs in Turnover Worthy Play percentage this season and will likely need to pass late to catch up which will allow the Oregon defense to make a play. Oregon has a bye week, they matchup well and all Wisconsin has in this game is homefield advantage. Take the Ducks and lay the points.
Pick: Oregon -14
Notre Dame vs. Virginia
Notre Dame has covered the total in their games in three of the last four games they have played. Virginia is coming off a big win against Pitt last week but are still massive underdogs in this game because of their defense. UVA is 82nd in scoring defense, grade 81st or lower in every defensive category from PFF and are 106th in Defensive EPA. Notre Dame has been playing with desire since the loss to Northern Illinois and have covered in six of those seven games and five hit the Over. Virginia stood tall and beat Pitt last week but the two games before that they allowed over 400 yards and 40 points to Clemson and North Carolina. Notre Dame will do the heavy lifting here but Virginia has only scored fewer than 20 points twice and are a Top-15 scoring offense in the 4th quarter. Notre Dame Overs have been an easy trend to follow and while this total hasn't moved this week the majority of the betting public is on the Over as well so take it quickly to avoid a spike before kickoff.
Pick: OVER 50.5
Illinois vs. Michigan State
Illinois isn't bulletproof as they come into this game losing two straight but Michigan State shouldn't be a problem for them. The Spartans have improved and still have their eyes set on a bowl birth but they are more likely to win against Purdue and Rutgers at home than take this matchup on the road against Illinois. QB Aidan Chiles has been up and down this season but 14 turnovers have led him to the highest Turnover Worthy Play rate among QBs with 200 dropbacks (112 qualified). MSU has been solid on defense, which has slowed some offensively challenged teams like Iowa and Boston College. Illinois may have issues scoring in this game, but they beat Michigan, a much better team defensively than MSU, in a low-scoring scrap, 21-7. Illinois is stronger on offense than they are on defense which plays well in this game against a team with a horrible offense and ok defense. This small spread has shrunk a bit already toward MSU, making this an even more enticing play.
Pick: Illinois -2.5