College Football Week 12 Picks & Predictions: Bogman’s Best Bets

by Scott Bogman |
Nov 16, 2023

Iâ€™m taking some close games this week, which I donâ€™t tend to do, but Iâ€™m feeling good about these. Lines become stranger at this point in the season, with some teams fighting for a Bowl bid and others firing coaches and looking towards next season. Iâ€™m aware of it in these games. Georgia-Tennesse obviously has a lot on the line, and Louisville is also playing for a potential big Bowl game.

Florida must win against Missouri this week or Florida State next week to make a Bowl. Illinois needs a win, but they have Northwestern next week, and Arkansas State needs a big win against Texas State to make a bowl, or Marshall is waiting next week.

My pick of the Under is because of the TSU QB situation. There are a ton of storylines here, but Iâ€™m looking for ones that can get us some wins!

College Football Week 12 Picks & Predictions

Week 10 Record: 4-6 | 2023 Record: 54-56 | Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

#10 Louisville +1 @ Miami AND UNDER 46.5

Iâ€™ve swung and missed with Louisville a few times this season, but this is more about Miami. The Hurricanes went with the freshman QB Emory Williams last week, and he provided a great spark before leaving with the brutal compound fracture. Miami is now forced to go back to Tyler Van Dyke, who was benched for turnover issues, and he faces a defense that has forced 18 turnovers this season (t-21st). The Louisville defense has also held teams to an average of 17.1 points per game (PPG) and is 10th nationally against the run.

Scoring can be an issue for Louisville, as Miami has a strong defense against the run (seventh nationally). I am confident Louisville can switch gears and pass the ball against Miami. I would describe Hurricanes as â€˜middle of the roadâ€™ against the pass, and Louisville has won behind Jack Plummer doing â€œjust enough to win,â€ and I think that trend continues here.

Miami played very well against Florida State and beat the spread against them last week, but I think the wind was taken out of their sails when Emory Williams went out. If Louisville forces an INT or fumble by Van Dyke early in this game, I feel like the Hurricanes will crumble. These teams will probably play this a bit tight, but I will take the Cardinal and the Under, with Louisville getting a point (or a pick since itâ€™s all over the place).

Miami played their â€˜big gameâ€™ last week, and theyâ€™ve already qualified for a Bowl game, so nothing is on the line for them, and Louisville could be in line for a major Bowl game.

Duke @ Virginia OVER 47.5

These teams seem to have found something on offense over the last few weeks, and I will lean into it. Virginia has played a bit of musical chairs at the QB position, but it seems like Anthony Colandrea will be under center again. Colandrea actually kept the Cavaliers in the game against Louisville last week in a road game. Dukeâ€™s defense has been pretty strong, but recently, they have shown a little wear, allowing 47 to UNC last week and hitting the Over in three of their last four games.

The Duke offense getting something from backup QB Grayson Loftis last week is the main reason I have any amount of confidence in the Over. The Blue Devils have had issues on offense since Riley Leonard went down, but last week, Loftis put up 189 passing yards with three passing TDs, and he ran one in. There is a chance that Henry Belin could start for Duke, which would probably be better, but in CFB, the injury reports are inconsistent and strange. I expect it to be Loftis.

The majority of the offensive production will come from the run for Duke. They are a run-first offense as they are 40th in rushing yards per game and post 100 in passing yards per game. Even if Duke wasnâ€™t a run-first offense, the Virginia defense is 115th against the run this season statistically and has graded as the second-worst run defense, according to PFF. Jordan Waters leads the Duke rushing attack, but they get explosive plays from Jacquez Moore, who is the ninth in the country in Breakaway Yard %.

Duke is going to get the majority of the points to get to this total, but I think the Cavaliers can put up around 17 toward this total, with anything else being a bonus. Duke has put up over 30 points four times this season. Once against FCS Lafayette, and the three other times were in the only three games they have faced below-average run defenses. Those three games all went Over, and Virginia is the worst run defense Duke will face all year.

I think Duke will continue the trend. Take the Over.

#9 Missouri vs. Florida OVER 58.5

The Tigerâ€™s defense has looked stronger over the last month of the season. They held Tennessee to seven points, South Carolina to 12, and even Georgia was held to only 30 (only two games with fewer points for UGA). Iâ€™m taking the Over in this one because Florida has hit the Over in six straight games behind a defense that has been ROUGH!

Florida has hit the over in five of six SEC games this season and has allowed at least 39 points in each of their last four games. In those four games, Floridaâ€™s opponents have gone over their average points and three of four over their yards per game. LSU put the hammer down on the Gators last week with 52 points and 701 yards while only possessing the ball for 25:36!

Missouri is a little bit more one-dimensional than LSU, although last week, Florida gave it all up to Jayden Daniels. Missouri QB Brady Cook isnâ€™t going to run like Daniels, but he does have over 200 rushing yards on the season and six rushing TDs. Florida will have a tough time stopping anything that Brady Cook and WR Luther Burden and Iâ€™m counting on the Tigers scoring on most of their possessions.

Graham Mertz has really settled in for Florida, and they have been playing great offensively over their last five games, averaging 442 Total yards and 34 points. The RB tandem of Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne has been great, too, and the offense is rising as the defense sinks. Florida should play some inspired football, as my co-host Thor Nystrom mentioned on the BP CFB Show earlier this week because they have to win one more game to be bowl-eligible.

Florida playing inspired means scoring more points to me. The defense just doesnâ€™t have it right now. Iâ€™ll shy away from the spread because Florida is desperate for a win, but I think we go way Over the total in this one!

Other Bets I like:

ECU +2.5 @ Navy
#1 Georgia-10 @ #18 Tennessee
UNT -2 @ Tulsa
#16 Iowa -3 vs Illinois
Arkansas St. vs. Texas St. UNDER 59.5
TCU vs. Baylor OVER 59

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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