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College Football Week 13 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Long Shot Bets (2023)

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We've finally made it.

The final full week of the college football regular season is upon us. Time and time again we get some of the biggest upsets of the season in this final weekend. Many teams have little to play for while others are playing for bowl eligibility and conference title dreams. With a loaded slate of rivalry games surrounding the holiday weekend, there are plenty of opportunities for long-shot upsets.

Here are a few of my favorites to end the 2023 season.

College Football Week 13 Longshot Bets

Utah State Aggies (-6) at New Mexico Lobos

New Mexico has little to play for other than pride. They sit at 4-7 on the season and 2-5 in Mountain West play. Bowl eligibility isn't in the cards for the Lobos, but that didn't stop them from playing spoiler to Fresno State this past Saturday. The Lobos rank near the bottom of the country in many defensive metrics but that didn't stop them from holding Fresno State to 229 yards of total offense.

Utah State's resume looks a tad better. They're 5-6, so this game is the difference between bowl eligibility and not. That can be an opportunity for a team to come out stiff and try too hard. With this Aggie defense that ranks 127th in SP+, any big play can spell disaster. New Mexico is a top-60 team in both EPA per rush and EPA per dropback. Although the Lobos have their own issues on defense, they should be just one or two plays away from getting back in this game if they find themselves trailing.

I like the Lobos to pull of the upset here. The Aggies defense will allow New Mexico to stay in this and frankly, the New Mexico offense is not as bad as some of the advanced metrics suggest. The Utah State motivation could end up actually being a negative as New Mexico has no choice but to play loose as they have nothing to lose. Start your weekend off here with a long shot upset.

Pick: Utah State +210

Houston Cougars at UCF Knights (-13.5)

This is another game where one of these teams has nothing to play for while the other needs a win to be bowl eligible. UCF has been riddled with injuries all season and this past week and missed the extra point on a late score that would have tied the game in a 24-23 loss. Did the Knights blow their chance at a bowl in their first Big 12 season? The answer may be yes.

This past week we saw Houston blow a big early lead to lose to Oklahoma State. On the surface, that's not very impressive, but in a season that feels a bit like a lost one in Houston, they showed signs of life. Against this UCF defense, they can have success. Quarterback Donovan Smith has had a lot of success for the Cougars. He's compiled 2,640 yards in the air with 21 touchdowns as well as six rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown. He really can do it all for this offense. So long as he can limit turnovers, Smith can put points on the board for the Cougars.

This is really a must win game for a UCF team that hoped for a little more than 6-6 and 3-6 in their inaugural Big 12 season. Houston is a hungry team and these two schools have history from their years playing in conference together. At this long number, I love the Cougars to finish the year on a high note and look to build towards a solid 2024 campaign.

Pick: Houston +425

Kentucky Wildcats at Louisville Cardinals (-6.5)

It's rivalry week. We finally get these traditional matchups where there will be no love lost. This Bluegrass State rivalry is as bad-blooded as they come.

Kentucky was looking towards another strong season in the SEC after their 5-0 start and off of a convincing win over Florida. What followed was a trip through the SEC buzzsaw: Georgia, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi State, Alabama and South Carolina. To go through that 1-5 was a disappointment for the Wildcats, but understandable. Although they are 6-5, they aren't as average as the record suggests. SP+ ranks them 33rd in the country with a 34th ranked defense. This is the biggest edge the Wildcats have in this matchup.

Louisville is 10-1 and headed to the ACC championship game against a Florida State team with a backup quarterback. I know this is a big rivalry game, but you have to imagine there's going to be some difficulty keeping total focus on this one with the big game next weekend. The Louisville record is kind of a mirage as well. The Cardinals didn't play Florida State, Clemson or North Carolina in the ACC this year. They escaped close games against Virginia and Miami the past two weeks as well, so they are more than capable of being caught. 

Kentucky will be one of the best defenses Louisville has played all year and although the Kentucky's offense isn't superb, Louisville showed that they can have lapses on defense the last two weeks. With a chance at their first outright conference title since they won the Big East in 2006, Louisville is could find it difficult to focus on this game. It's a prime spot for Kentucky to finish the 2023 season strong with bragging rights over their rival.

Pick: Kentucky +235

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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