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College Football Week 13 Picks & Predictions: Bogman’s Best Bets (2023)

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Rivalry week is here!  I’m trying to close out over the hump and I’m feeling confident enough to lay some points and dance with some totals!  I hope you have enjoyed some CFB this season and enjoy Thanksgiving weekend with the 4 F’s, food, friends, family and football!

College Football Week 13 Picks & Predictions

  • Week 12 Record: 5-4-1
  • 2023 Record:  59-60-1

LSU -10.5 vs Texas A&M AND OVER 66

Mike Farrell brought up the point that the Tigers want Jayden Daniels to win the Heisman and this is the final chance for Daniels to make an impression as Bama and Georgia are set for the SEC title game.

LSU finally had a game go under last week when the total shot up over 70 to 75 against Georgia state and they only missed it by 5.  This week the total dropped to 66 and every single game LSU has played against SEC opponents has gone over 60 except the game against Miss State.  Miss State only mustered 14 points in that game, LSU held Auburn to only 18 points as well but all other SEC (Arkansas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Bama and Florida) scored between 31-55.  QB Jaylan Henderson has been a very solid replacement for Max Johnson the past two games and the Aggie offense hasn’t missed a beat since Jimbo left.

While the Aggies might score some points it likely isn’t going to come close to what LSU will put up!  LSU is averaging the most points in the country at 46.8 PPG and Daniels has the Heisman in his sites.  Texas A&M has played decent on defense but the secondary has been torched by some good QBs like Van Dyke (21/30  374-5), Milroe (21/33  321-3-1) and Dart (24/33  387-2) and Daniels is better than all of those guys by a wide margin.

LSU on defense is rough which is why all of their games go over, they are 85th in scoring, 103rd in rushing and 99th against the pass.  Even a 3rd string QB will score but not enough to keep the Aggies in it against this strong Tigers offense.  LSU wins somewhere in the neighborhood of 49-35!

Utah vs Colorado OVER 52.5

The Over in this one to me is going to come down to Utah’s running game doing damage against a Colorado front 7 that is leaking like crazy!  

Utah has put up rushing totals of 317 against Cal, 247 on USC, 352 on ASU.  Cal and Arizona State both rank in the top 50 in YPG allowed on the ground but rank below 100 in run defense grade according to PFF.  Colorado ranks below both Cal and ASU in PFF Run Defense grade and if the effort they displayed in the Washington State game means anything they are going to get run over by Utah.

Colorado could have an issue on offense if QB Shedeur Sanders is out, as of now he’s listed as day-to-day but he’s probably a true Game Time decision.  Colorado has put up some low totals during their 5 game losing streak but they aren’t going to need to put a ton to help get to this total.  Utah put up 55 points 3 weeks ago against ASU in an absolute route at home and I feel like this is going to be a similar offensive output for the Utes.

This is a lopsided contest for sure but with Utah playing at home I think they are going to want to win big to send the home fans into the offseason with a bang!  I think this game finishes somewhere around 45-17 with Utah putting it on Coach Prime and the Bufs!

#5 Florida State @ Florida Over 50

I understand that we are not only dealing with backup QBs for both teams in this game and I still want the Over.  

Tate Rodemaker is taking over for one of the best of the year in Jordan Travis for the Seminoles.  The playmakers for FSU are going to be able to beat the Florida defense that has been leaky and we picked on last week too.  Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson, Trey Benson and Jaheim Bell will take the pressure off Rodemaker. Well, playmakers and the fact that the Florida defense has given up 124 Points and just under 1700 yards over the last 3 games REALLY takes the pressure off.  There might be a few miscues but the Florida defense will allow for those and FSU will put up points.

The reason I don’t want to pick a side is that Florida has to win this game to become bowl eligible and I expect them to put up a fight.  Florida State has a very solid pass defense but they haven’t played any dangerous passing offense’s since Week 1 against LSU.  Miami is the probably the best passing offense the Florida State defense has faced since LSU and that was the week they switched to Emory Williams and he got hurt and they went back to Tyler Van Dyke.  I don’t think that backup QB Max Brown is going to light up the FSU secondary but he should be good enough to put up at least two TDs.  

The QBs are an unknown for sure but I see a few outs to the over in this game.  I think the Florida offense is either going to keep them in it and it’s a ‘down to the wire’ 31-28 type of game or they turn the ball over and provide short fields for FSU and they get most if not all of this total.  The Florida defense makes me confident that we’re going to go sailing past this Over!

Other Bets I Like:

  • #9 Missouri -8.5 @ Arkansas
  • ECU -3 vs Tulsa
  • UAB @ North Texas UNDER 74/5
  • Illinois -4 vs Northwestern
  • #2 Ohio State @ #3 Michigan UNDER 46
  • Kansas -6 @ Cincinnati

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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