College Football Week 2 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Long Shot Bets (2023)
Week 1 was chock full of big upsets, from Colorado stunning TCU to Texas State taking control of Baylor. We nailed the late-night upset in Laramie, Wyo., where the Cowboys outlasted Texas Tech in double overtime for a nice +460 hit.
Week 2 lacks high-profile marquee matchups (outside of Tuscaloosa), but that usually spells prime upset material. Let's take a look at some of my favorite spots for long shot winners on the slate.
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College Football Week 2 Long Shot Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Texas State (+360) at UTSA (-12.5)
In Week 1, we saw a team with a new head coach that came in and completely reshaped the roster, go on the road in the Big 12, and come out with a massive upset. Of course, I'm talking about Texas State. Like Coach Prime in Colorado, GJ Kinne jumped from the FCS ranks at Incarnate Word. From day one, he reconstructed this roster to look like the kind of offense he ran so successfully at Incarnate Word. It worked, as transfer QB TJ Finley from Auburn looked phenomenal. They lit up a Baylor defense that was respectable in EPA pass defense in 2022.
UTSA's offense looked like a shell of eighth-ranked EPA per-play offense from 2022. Even though they returned star QB Frank Harris, the weapons around him aren't the same. UTSA struggled to get drives going against Houston. When they did, they shot themselves in the foot with turnovers and missed FGs. The defense looked solid against the Cougars, but it was a Houston offense breaking in a transfer at QB and RB while working with a cavalcade of sophomore pass-catchers.
Kinne's rallying cry since day one has been "Take back Texas." These in-state games have been circled on the calendar all spring and summer. Perhaps none were more emphasized than this game between two schools separated by just 53 miles. The advanced stats are undervaluing this Bobcat team. They're also overvaluing a Roadrunner team, returning a longtime starter at QB and little else. I'm rolling with the Bobcats again to continue to surprise and upset the Roadrunners in Week 2.
Jacksonville State (+420) at Coastal Carolina (-13.5)
Your eyes did not deceive you. If you watched the Coastal Carolina at UCLA game on Saturday night, Grayson McCall is still the QB for the Chanticleers. Your eyes also did not deceive you that this is not the same offense we've been accustomed to seeing with Coastal Carolina. UCLA is expected to be a bit improved on defense this year after finishing 113th in EPA defense last year. However, Coastal Carolina only managed one 10+ yard run (a 10-yard scramble for McCall) and a 6.45 YPA through the air. This was alarming for a Coastal offense that we're used to seeing light-up scoreboards. With Jamey Chadwell off to Liberty, McCall was rumored to be flirting with the portal. Perhaps the writing was on the wall for this offense in 2023.
Jacksonville State won a tight game in Week 0 against UTEP, but they got some poor quarterback play from Zion Webb. In Week 1, Nebraska transfer QB Logan Smothers came in and showed out against an overmatched FCS ETSU. In both games, the Gamecocks were explosive, running the ball with 4.45 yards per carry and huge runs of 40+ yards. UCLA was able to run for 4.94 yards per carry against this Coastal defense, so Jacksonville State may cause them some issues as well. The Gamecock defense has held their own so far against inferior offensive opponents and the Chanticleer offense may not pose the same threat we thought during the preseason.
HC Rich Rodriguez has thrived his whole coaching career as an underdog. With being ineligible for postseason play of any kind due to the NCAA's transition rules, any big game against a successful FBS program will be a huge opportunity for Jacksonville State to show they belong. I suspect you'll see some more hype around this team after a win on the road Saturday night.
Texas (+225) at Alabama (-7)
Is Texas back? The age-old question may well be answered Saturday night as the Longhorns travel to Tuscaloosa, Ala., to take on the Crimson Tide. Both teams looked great in their opening contests versus overmatched opponents. Texas was methodical, and QB Quinn Ewers looked fantastic in their rout of Rice. Meanwhile, QB Jalen Milroe and Alabama ran through Middle Tennessee with little resistance.
Last year, Texas had every opportunity to win a classic with the Tide. Ewers got hurt in the first half, and backup QB Hudson Card played valiantly, just coming up short. This year, Ewers is back, and if last week is any indication, he is even better. The connection with WR Xavier Worthy could be one of the best in the nation and give Alabama fits all day. On the other side of the ball, Texas could have one of the best defenses the Big 12 has seen in a long time. This team is finally ready to compete with the national title contenders in 2023.
Alabama has been a powerhouse for nearly 15 years under Nick Saban but is coming off of a disappointing season by their standards and returning very little production. On offense they lost their QB Bryce Young and RB Jahmyr Gibbs. They have the talent to replace them, but it might take time. They only return the 108th most production on that side of the ball. It's even worse on the defensive side as they return the 120th most production. Alabama will likely end up as the best team in the SEC West, but for an early contest like this against a strong veteran team like Texas, I like the Longhorns to pull off the upset.
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