College Football Week 2 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (9/10)
Let’s take a look at our best College Football Week 2 odds, picks, and predictions for Saturday’s games.
Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 2 College Football Power Rankings >>
College Football Week 1 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Saturday
Iowa (-3.5) vs. Iowa St.
Those who watched Iowa score seven points on two safeties and a field goal in last week’s 7-3 win over South Dakota State would be forgiven for not wanting to invest in the Hawkeyes. But this line is short by any objective measure. It implies these teams are roughly equal in a vacuum, with Iowa only installed as favorites due to the game being played in Kinnick Stadium
But these teams aren’t equal.
Iowa’s offense is horrible. But all the Hawkeyes are asking is that it not turn the ball over, because Iowa has a top-3 national defense/special teams combination.
Just take a look back at last year. Iowa beat Iowa State in Ames 27-17 in a game the Hawkeyes only gained 173 yards of offense. The Hawkes scored 20 points off four forced turnovers. That Iowa State team was better than this one. Over the offseason, the Cyclones lost QB Brock Purdy, RB Breece Hall, TE Charlie Kolar, two OL starters, and eight starters on defense.
Not only that, but ISU didn’t replace the outgoing production with plug-and-play starters from the portal. Per 247Sports, ISU’s transfer crop ranked No. 110 in the nation. Not much could be ascertained about the new cast of characters in ISU’s win over an FCS opponent in the opener. Things won’t be so easy on Saturday.
Iowa’s defense ranked 12th in EPA/rush last season and returned almost everyone in the front-seven. The Hawkeyes also ranked No. 10 in EPA/pass last season despite losing CB Riley Moss to a season-ending injury. Moss is back, now.
Iowa is traditionally money in games with short spreads like this. In its last 16 games with spreads of 3.5-points or less, Iowa is 12-4 ATS. Everyone is concerned about Iowa’s offense. But the bigger question should be: How is Iowa State going to score against this defense?
Bet: Iowa (-3.5)
- Thor Nystrom
Syracuse (-23.5) at UConn
The Orange were one of the pleasant surprises of Week 1, blasting Louisville 31-7. It appears Syracuse’s passing game and defense have both taken a large step forward since the end of last season. The offense is now directed by respected OC Robert Anae, who appears to have coaxed major improvement out of the passing attack with his quick-hitting sideline-to-sideline machinations.
That performance should have gotten Syracuse upgraded in power rankings. But the sportsbooks appear to have overlooked that, dropping a spread more indicative of the preseason outlooks for both teams.
I purchased a Syracuse +20.5 ticket on Sunday. Since then, predictable money on the Orange has come in to push this spread to -22.5. I still think there’s value on Syracuse at this number – I would bet them up to -24.
Bet: Syracuse (-23.5)
- Thor Nystrom
Pittsburgh (+6) vs. Tennessee
It appears as though Pittsburgh will be without RB ​​Rodney Hammond Jr., who suffered a right leg injury on a helmet-to-helmet targeting call in the win over the Mountaineers. Hammond was a breakout star against WVU, posting 129 scrimmage yards and two TD.
Pitt is going to miss him. But Hammond’s absence will clear the way for Israel Abanikanda, who was expected to lead the rotation this season but took a backseat against the Mountaineers as Hammond had one of the best games of his life.
My system is showing an absurd amount of value on Pitt in this game, installing the Panthers as 2.8-point favorites in a game the market has set at Vols -6.5 – that’s nearly a double-digit discrepancy.
Recent history also points towards Pitt. While Tennessee is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 against ranked opponents, Pitt is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home underdog of 6.5 or fewer. Pitt HC Pat Narduzzi loves these spots.
Bet: Pittsburgh (+6)
- Thor Nystrom
Virginia (+4.5) at Illinois
This is the second-straight week the books have opened Illinois with a weird number. Last week, it was opening the Illini as four-point underdogs to Indiana. That appeared to be a mistake line. Illini gagged away a win late and lost 23-20, but covered most spread tickets purchased through mid-week.
This week, the books have surprisingly swung the other way, despite Illinois’ late-game collapse. This time, it’s the Illini who are getting too much respect. My numbers say Virginia should be favored.
I do think that Virginia’s front-seven will have issues with Illinois’ physical downhill running game. I also think that Illinois is going to have more problems defending Virginia’s high-octane passing attack, which includes four future NFL receivers and a quarterback who may get drafted in Brennan Armstrong. I like the Cavs to spring the upset.
Bet: Virginia (+4.5)
- Thor Nystrom
Fresno State (+1) at Oregon State
Another instance where I think the books opened the wrong team as the favorite.
Oregon State looked incredible the opener, racing out to a 24-0 lead over Boise State at halftime in an eventual 34-17 win. But the Beavs were greatly aided by BSU QB Hank Bachmeier’s nightmare performance.
Bachmeier had almost as many first half turnovers (three) as he had completions (four). By the time Bachmeier was yanked, the game was already, for all practical purposes, over.
Fresno didn’t have a similar opportunity to impress the betting public, playing an FCS opponent (35-7 win). But we can’t forget that the Bulldogs have one of the most devastating aerial attacks in the nation, led by QB Jake Haener and a deep group of receivers.
Oregon State’s pass defense was No. 82 EPA/pass in 2021. Bachmeier’s dud flattered the Beavs. Haener should provide a market correction in that regard.
Bet: Fresno State (+1)
- Thor Nystrom
Arkansas (-9) vs. South Carolina
Last week we saw both teams win, but Arkansas was impressive, while South Carolina was not. Spencer Rattler looked shaky against Georgia State. He threw two picks, went 3-14 on 3rd downs, and lead the Gamecocks to just over 300 yards of offense and only two offensive touchdowns. The SC defense was looking to improve on their 94th-ranked run defense from last season, but Georgia State ran for 200 yards and averaged 5 yards-per-carry.
Arkansas was ninth in rushing last season and already put up over 200 on Cincy. Running back Raheim Sanders and QB KJ Jefferson should be licking their chops in this one. The final ingredient here is the pass rush on both sides of the ball. Arkansas tallied four sacks last week. SC didn’t get one while allowing three to a Sun Belt opponent!
South Carolina should have way more firepower with talented players like RB MarShawn Lloyd and TE Jaheim Bell on offense, but Spencer Rattler showed me nothing. Arkansas should roll in this one. I’ll lay the points!
Bet: Arkansas -9 (-110 on DraftKings)
- Scott Bogman
Houston (+4) @ Texas Tech
This was the first game that caught my eye this week because I was surprised that Texas Tech was favored. This almost feels like the old-school thought process of “A Power 5 team hosting a G5 team has to be favored.â€
Houston is coming off a 12-win 2021 campaign. They return their starting QB Clayton Tune, who has over 1000 pass attempts, 7000 yards, 60 TDs, and has played in 34 games. Texas Tech is a team on the rise. They were over .500 for the first time since 2015, and they looked solid in new HC Joey McGuire’s debut, putting up 63 points. Texas Tech played Murray State in Week 1, and while they did put up over 600 yards, they also lost their starting QB Tyler Shough to a shoulder injury.
The Red Raiders have some depth at QB. Hence, it isn’t a total disaster, but this is still not a great matchup for them. Houston is a way more complete team, returning over half the starters on defense for a team that was top 10 in total yards allowed, including two All-Conference players. Houston is better on offense and defense by enough to still be favored on the road, and they’re still dogs!
Tech bowing up and playing a competitive game would not be shocking, but we are still getting points even in that scenario. The points are safer, of course, but I also don’t hate the money line at +135!
Bet: Houston ML (+135 on DraftKings)
- Scott Bogman
Miami (-25) vs. Southern Miss AND Over 51.5
The Hurricanes are going to do the heavy lifting to get to the total on this one, and if that hits, the spread should also be a cover. This is simply a gigantic mismatch in Miami’s favor. They put 70 points up last week in another mismatch against FCS Bethune-Cookman.
Southern Miss is a more formidable opponent, of course, but they looked rough last week. They were particularly bad on defense, where they gave up 244 rushing yards to Liberty and let a 3rd-string QB beat them in OT. They also let Liberty control the clock (38:58-30:55 in 3OT) and had five turnovers and ten penalties. The Golden Eagles might not have starting QB Ty Keyes as well. Even if they aren’t, he probably won’t be at 100%, which will lead to poor field position at best and turnovers at worst.
Miami was crisp in Week 1, has a way better roster, and has a potential NFL-caliber QB in Tyler Van Dyke. I think this is a Miami stomping in all 3 phases and that they will put up the majority (if not all) of this total.
Bet: Miami -25 (-110) AND Over 51.5 (-110)
- Scott Bogman
WVU vs. Kansas – Over 59.5
West Virginia is coming off of a game where they just put up 31 against Pitt and had 190 rushing yards. Pitt was fifth against the run last year; they never gave up more than 160 yards and gave up 100+ rushing yards only five times. WVU started Georgia transfer QB JT Daniels against Pitt. The former 5-star didn’t light the world on fire, but he was good enough to score three TD (two passing, one rushing).
Kansas was 129th last year against the run allowing almost 250 yards per game. They were also 129th in scoring defense allowing over 40 PPG. Kansas hasn’t offered a lot on offense recently, but they put up 56 points last week against a weak FCS opponent in Tennessee Tech. Jalon Daniels took over as the starting Kansas QB for good last season in the final three games, and the Jayhawks averaged just over 37 PPG, mainly due to a 57-point effort I saw firsthand in Austin.
I think WVU will have no problem getting to at least 35 points and probably more. The Jayhawks put up at least 28 points in each of Jalon Daniels’s starts last year. These included a 34-28 loss to WVU in the last game that went over this total. The Mountaineers will have to do the heavy lifting here, but Kansas can do a little damage on offense now, which makes me confident that these teams will get to this over and then some!
Bet: Over 59.5 (-110 on DraftKings)
- Scott Bogman
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