College Football Week 3: Early Lines, Odds, & Predictions
Week 2 of the 2024-25 college football season is in the books and there are plenty of power rankings to adjust based on the latest results. No. 3 Texas went into Ann Arbor and routed No. 9 Michigan 31-12, holding the Wolverines without a touchdown until a late score came in garbage time. No. 5 Notre Dame lost at home as a four-touchdown favorite to Northern Illinois, surrendering a field goal in the last minute of the game following their big road win against Texas A&M in Week 1.
Two other top-ten programs, Oregon and Penn State, survived potential upsets against Boise State and Bowling Green. At the same time, No. 2 Ohio State and No. 14 Tennessee routed their opponents in lopsided matchups. Iowa blew a 13-0 lead at half-time and wound up losing 20-19 on a 54-yard walk-off field goal to in-state rival Iowa State, while Syracuse, led by quarterback Kyle McCord, beat No. 23 Georgia Tech outright 31-28 to improve to 2-0 in the ACC.
We wound up 2-2 with our Week 2 best bets, so let’s try to get back to 4-0 with my latest line movement analysis to predict four games on the Week 3 slate.
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College Football Early Line Movement: Week 3
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
| Away | Home | Open Spread | Current Spread | Open Total | Current Total | Day | Spread +/- | Total +/- |
| Arizona | Kansas State | -6.5 | -7 | 56.5 | 57 | Monday | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| Boston College | Missouri | -16.5 | -16.5 | 54 | 54 | Monday | 0 | 0 |
| Arizona State | Texas State | -2.5 | -2 | 59 | 58.5 | Monday | +0.5 | +0.5 |
| West Virginia | Pittsburgh | +5.5 | +2.5 | 59 | 60.5 | Monday | -3.0 | -1.5 |
Arizona (20) vs. Kansas State (14)
Friday night gives us one of just a few top-25 head-to-head matchups in Week 3 between Arizona and Kansas State in the Big 12. Kansas State survived a thriller against Tulane on the road in Week 2, scoring 24 points in the second half to eke out a victory. Meanwhile, Arizona, led by QB Noah Fifita and star wideout Tetairoa McMillan, recorded a comeback effort over Northern Arizona 22-10.
Arizona’s outing was concerning to say the least, especially falling into a halftime deficit against an FCS opponent. Kansas State QB Avery Johnson has thrown two touchdowns in each game this season, while using his mobility to extend plays and pick up first downs. Arizona’s defense gave up 39 points to New Mexico in Week 1, so I give the edge to Kansas State, especially under the lights at home.
The point spread has inflated from Kansas State -6.5 to 7, so we could wind up with a push, but I like Kansas State to win by at least a touchdown in this matchup between two Wildcats programs on Friday night. The point spread and total remain the same as when they opened, favoring the Tigers -16.5 with a total of 54 points.
Best Bet: Kansas State -7 (-112)
Boston College (24) vs. Missouri (6)
Boston College ran Florida State off of its own field in Week 2 behind QB Thomas Castellanos and new head coach Bill O’Brien. The element of surprise is likely gone now for the Eagles as they travel to face No. 6 Missouri on Saturday afternoon.
The Tigers have shut out Murray State and Buffalo, which is still an impressive feat despite facing lower-tier opponents. Boston College shutout Duquesne before holding Florida State to 13 total points after taking a double-digit lead early in the game.
This will be Missouri’s first real test of the season. Stopping Boston College’s run game, behind a veteran offensive line, is the key to this game. There’s continuity on both offenses and while the edge does go to Missouri QB Brady Cook and wideouts Theo Wease and Luther Burden, Boston College won’t be a pushover defensively.
I like the Eagles’ to stay within 16 points and keep this game relatively competitive, grinding clock behind Castellanos and a cycle of talented running backs.
Best Bet: Boston College +16.5 (-112)
Arizona State vs. Texas State
The Arizona State Sun Devils travel to San Marcos, Texas on Thursday night to face one of the most talented non-Power 4 teams in the country, the Texas State Bobcats. The Bobcats’ point spread has gone from +2.5 to +2 as home underdogs in prime time, while the point total line has shifted down half a point from 59 to 58.5.
Arizona State is a run-heavy offense behind RB Cameron Skattebo, who is averaging 7.1 YPC. The Sun Devils only scored three points in the second half against Mississippi State last week and hung on to win 30-23. The Bobcats struggled more against FCS opponent, Lamar, than they did against UTSA last week, going up 35-3 at halftime en route to a 49-10 victory.
Texas State has completed over 68 percent of its passes for five touchdowns and racked up five rushing touchdowns against UTSA in Week 2. Their offense is potent, while their run defense is also strong. Arizona State may be on upset alert on the road against the Bobcats, which is why the point spread has moved half a point in favor of Texas State.
We’ve got to back the home underdog to cover +2 during Thursday’s standalone primetime game, so let’s stake a unit on the Bobcats to cover the point spread and sprinkle on their +110 moneyline odds as well.
Best Bet: Texas State +2 (-108)
West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh
A clash between ACC and Big 12 opponents will take place on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET in Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, when the West Virginia Mountaineers travel to face the undefeated Pitt Panthers.
The Panthers continue to be led by long-time head coach Pat Narduzzi, who got his team to outlast Cincinnati 28-27 on the road in Week 2, kicking the go-ahead field goal with 15 seconds left in the game. Pitt has yet to surrender a rushing touchdown and is giving up less than 2.5 YPC, while a bit vulnerable through the air.
West Virginia QB Garrett Greene struggled against Penn State at home in Week 1 but got a softer matchup to regain his confidence against Albany in Week 2, culminating in a 49-14 win. This is Greene’s first road game of the year and it won’t be easy, as the Panthers specialize in taking away the run, forcing Greene to beat them through the air.
The line has moved aggressively from +5.5 to +2.5 in favor of Pitt, who remain slight home underdogs. The point total also moved from 59 to 60.5, implying that this may be a high-scoring back-and-forth type of game from both teams.
The last two matchups in 2023 and 2022 were won by the home team, as Pitt won 38-31 in 2022 and the Mountaineers pulled off a 17-6 victory in 2023. I give the edge to Narduzzi and Pitt as home underdogs, rostering a good offense and great run defense, so let’s take +2.5 before it gets any shorter later this week.
Best Bet: Pitt +2.5 (-105)
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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.