College Football Week 3 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Notre Dame vs. California (2022)

Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 3 odds, picks, and predictions for this week’s game: Notre Dame vs. California.

And check out our other Week 3 College Football Game Previews & Picks:

• Fresno State vs. USC
• Mississippi State vs. LSU
• Penn State vs. Auburn
• Ole Miss vs. Georgia Tech
• BYU vs. Oregon
• Washington State vs. Colorado State
• UConn vs. Michigan
• Georgia vs. South Carolina
• Oklahoma at Nebraska
• Charlotte at Georgia State
• New Mexico vs. UTEP
• Houston vs Kansas
• Texas vs UTSA
• Marshall at Bowling Green
• New Mexico State at Wisconsin
• Western Kentucky at Indiana
• Toledo at Ohio State
• Tulane at Kansas State
• Miami at Texas A&M

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 3 College Football Power Rankings >>

College Football Week 3 Early Odds, Picks & Prediction: Notre Dame vs. California

The market is reacting to Notre Dame QB Tyler Buchner being out for the rest of the season with a high-grade AC joint sprain in his non-throwing shoulder. He suffered that injury in last Saturday’s 26-21 home loss to Marshall. Buchner failed to impress in his two starts, going 28-of-50 for 378 yards and a 0/2 TD/INT rate.

The Irish are turning the offense over to QB Drew Pyne. Pyne doesn't have Buchner's arm strength, and he's also smaller and less-athletic. But Pyne has looked decent as a game-managing caretaker in limited looks the past few years.

Buchner has playmaking chops but has posted a 3/5 TD/INT rate over 85 career attempts. Pyne has a 3/1 TD/INT ratio over 39 career attempts with a slightly higher passer rating. Pyne isn't going to make the flash plays Buchner is capable of, but he also isn't going to be as careless with the ball.

With Pyne behind center, the ceiling of the offense lowers, but the floor rises. Since the offense spent the first two games on the mat - Notre Dame currently ranks No. 124 in PFF passing grade - this is actually a good thing for short-term projection purposes. I don't currently see a huge qualitative discrepancy between the two.

Pyne's style actually may end up suiting the offense better for this season. Instead of funneling an enormous percentage of the offensive usage into Buchner, both running and throwing, the Irish will now spread the rock a little more. Short-area accuracy is all that's needed when playing with uber-stud ND TE Michael Mayer, and Pyne has that. It is worth noting that Notre Dame's new QB2 is a true freshman, so the Irish no longer have a margin for error with quarterback health.

This Cal team looks very similar to all of Justin Wilcox's Cal teams. The defense is solid. The offense is horrible. The special teams are average. Cal is coming off a mere six-point home win against lowly UNLV, a game in which Cal scored only 20 points. Despite the soft opening slate, Cal still only ranks No. 80 in YPP. Notre Dame's defense shouldn't have issues shutting the Bears down.

I'm buying the dip on Notre Dame.

Pick: Notre Dame (-10)

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>

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