College Football Week 3 Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
Gear up for another awesome weekend of college football action with BettingPros! We’ll have you covered with all of our top picks for the week along with our projected spreads and totals to help guide your college football bets. Below are our top picks and predictions for this week’s college football games.
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Top College Football Odds & Picks: Week 3
Alabama vs. Wisconsin
It feels like the only way Wisconsin can keep this game close is to completely ugly things up. Play slow, keep the ball on the ground and limit opportunities for an explosive Alabama offense. The Wisconsin defense has been fine, but far from elite in its first two games against South Dakota and Western Michigan. The Badgers are middle of the pack in yards per play but have allowed only 13.5 points per game. An Alabama offense averaging six yards per carry against Western Kentucky and USF could find success on the ground against this Badgers defense, which gives me some pause on taking a full game under. So instead, I’ll opt to fade the Wisconsin offense against an Alabama defense that’s been really strong this year. The Crimson Tide have allowed just over 3 yards per play to start the year, and should be able to shut down a Badgers offense that doesn’t create explosive plays and isn’t overly efficient on the ground. I’m a bit queasy about laying such a big number with a Bama team I don’t fully trust in its first big road test under new coach Kalen DeBoer. But I feel comfortable banking on its defense to stymie an offense that failed to eclipse 30 points against South Dakota and Western Michigan.
Pick: Wisconsin Team Total Under 16.5 points
-Matt Barbato
Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa
Oklahoma State enters the game at 2-0, but last week’s win was a surprisingly shaky performance vs. Arkansas. The Cowboys couldn’t get Ollie Gordon on track until late in the game; his 12-yard touchdown run in the 2OT won the day. QB Alan Bowman had a solid day, but the secondary allowed Arkansas to throw for 400+ yards and a touchdown. Tulsa (1-1) is coming off a 28-24 loss to Arkansas State. They led 17-7 at the half, but mistakes led to two quick touchdowns for Arkansas State. They never fully recovered. If the Cowboys’ defense doesn’t play better, it may not matter how well Ollie Gordon runs. But we do expect Gordon to rule the day with a Heisman-worthy performance.
Pick: Oklahoma State -18
-Travis Pulver
LSU vs. South Carolina
South Carolina is coming off smashing Kentucky in Lexington. The defense looks good, specifically the pass rush, as they already have ten sacks this season. The offense still has things to work out, as they are 122nd in total defense. That defense front will need to be at their best against LSU’s offensive line, which is one of the best units in the country. It's helped Garrett Nussmeier, whose eight touchdowns led the nation. Half of those went to Kyren Lacy, and it looks like Brian Kelly immediately found his replacement for Malik Nabers. The problem is that LSU's defense hasn't been great since the start of the season; I mean, they gave up 21 points to Nicholls. The Gamecocks will be able to keep this game close at home and make the Tigers sweat.
Pick: South Carolina +7
-John Supowitz
Central Michigan vs. Illinois
Early-season college football results can create massively skewed views of teams. In the case of Central Michigan and Illinois we get two teams whose Week 2 results are not indicative of the type of teams they are. Central Michigan was blown out 52-16 to the FIU Panthers, but they actually outgained their opponent 369-309. Six crucial turnovers did them in and set FIU up in easy-scoring situations. For Illinois, they were the ones that were outgained by Kansas 327-271. The Jayhawks ran all over the Illini to the tune of 5.6 yards per rush. However, Illinois won the turnover battle 4-1, including a pick-six that was the difference in the 23-17 win. Rightfully so, Illinois is a heavy favorite against a Central Michigan team that is 109th net in EPA/play. But this line is too large. Illinois ranks only 69th in net EPA/play, and 109th in run defense. This line is an overreaction to some fluky results in Week 2. I’m going to play the number here and back the Chippewas.
Pick: Central Michigan +21
-Ryan Rodeman
Memphis vs. Florida State
Can I build my handicap for this game around the truth that DJ Uiagalelei flat-out stinks? I guess I don’t need your permission. Everywhere DJU has gone, the program has underachieved. And now Florida State is the latest program he’s played a role in deflating. Although it’s not completely his fault. After losing a ton of talent to the NFL, FSU’s defense failed to reload, particularly in the front seven. The Seminoles have gotten destroyed on the ground this year, ranking 123rd in rushing yards allowed per game. That could pose a problem against a Memphis rushing attack that’s ranked 56th in rushing yards per attempt in two wins over North Alabama and Troy. It’s also worth mentioning that Memphis is in the top 20 nationally in total defense and scoring defense. That all being said, this will be a step up in class for the Tigers, while this is a slight step down for the Noles, who opened the year with two ACC matchups. This feels trappy, but Memphis should have enough to hang around in Tallahassee. And remember, DJU stinks.
Pick: Memphis +6.5
-Matt Barbato
North Texas vs. Texas Tech
Texas Tech is looking to bounce back from a tough loss to Washington State in Week 2. They lit up the boxscore with 491 yards, but four turnovers were killer and resulted in a 37-16 loss. They’ll host a North Texas team that is flying into this game at 2-0. A Week 1 win over South Alabama was an impressive outcome and they followed it up with a win against FCS Stephen F Austin. They’ve had a really strong offensive showing this year, including a 35th-ranked rush offense by EPA/play. This is going to be a problem for a Texas Tech team that has been run on to no end so far this year. Washington State picked up 301 yards with 6.5 yards/carry and that came a week after Tech gave up over 600 yards of total offense to FCS Abilene Christian. North Texas is a strong G5 team and they’ll give Texas Tech all they can handle. I like the Mean Green to cover in this contest.
Pick: North Texas +10.5
-Ryan Rodeman
Notre Dame vs. Purdue
There’s not much time for Notre Dame to lick its wounds after a stunning loss at home to Northern Illinois as 28-point favorites, as the Irish will now take the short trip to West Lafayette for a rivalry renewal with Purdue. The Boilermakers enter this game off a bye following a 49-0 drubbing of Indiana State in the season opener. In that win, Purdue scampered for 248 yards on the ground. That could bode well against a Notre Dame defense that’s struggled against the run, ranking 83rd in rushing yards allowed per attempt. It’s tough to take much out of Purdue’s defensive performance against the Sycamores. However, defensive-minded coach Ryan Walters should have a good game plan with an extra week of prep against an Irish offense that clearly doesn’t profile as a unit capable of covering big spreads. Transfer QB Riley Leonard has been unimpressive, and Notre Dame’s talent along the skill positions doesn’t strike much fear. The Irish certainly won’t be caught sleeping after last week’s letdown. But they haven’t earned my respect to lay this many points.
Pick: Purdue +7.5
-Matt Barbato
Oregon vs. Oregon State
The Ducks and Beavers are no longer conference rivals, but that won’t make Saturday’s game any less heated. In fact, it might spice things up to a new level. Oregon, of course, left for the Big Ten, while Oregon State is in the Pac-12, which is hoping to make a move to add some teams soon. The Ducks opened with an uninspiring 24-14 win over FCS Idaho before rallying for a 37-34 thriller win against Boise State last weekend. Oregon State is 2-0, too, and it routed FCS Idaho State 38-15 in the opener, before pitching the 21-0 shutout at San Diego State last weekend. Defense has been the name of the game for the Beavers, and that will be put to the test against the Quack Attack. The Beavers have won the past two meetings in Corvallis, while covering three of the past five in the series. They’re catching a big number in this one, and Oregon State is the play on its home field, although Oregon still should win outright to take the Platypus Award back to Eugene.
Pick: Oregon State +17
Daniel Dobish
Texas A&M vs. Florida
The Graham Mertz era in Gainesville has likely concluded. DJ Lagway threw for a freshman-record 456 passing yards to go along with three touchdowns against Samford, and whether or not Mertz is ready, he'll probably ride the bench. He might even be able to save Billy Napier's job. Texas A&M losing at home to Notre Dame looks worse after last week. They will always have a strong defense, but you would have hoped a new regime would enhance that offense. Nothing about Connor Weigman has looked impressive this year, and his 38.8 QBR is 92nd. The Aggies recently showed they've not come through and are 0-4 against the spread in their last four games as a road favorite.
Pick: Florida +4
-John Supowitz
Washington State vs. Washington
Both of these teams have looked good to start the season, but neither has really been tested. Some will look at the Cougars’ win over Texas Tech and think it was impressive, but the Red Raiders defeated Abilene Christian by just one point in Week 1. That said, the Huskies are a complete unknown two weeks into the season, so it’s hard to trust them as favorites in this game. The one thing we do know is that both of these teams are going to score. The Huskies have only allowed 12 points thus far, but that’s because of their opponent’s skill level. The quarterback play of Will Rogers and John Mateer will help this number go comfortably over.
Pick: Over 54
-Phil Wood
Troy vs. Iowa
It’s been a tough time for Troy so far this season. After winning 11 games, including a Sun Belt Conference championship game win. Head coach Jon Sumrall left for the Tulane job, so Gerad Parker took over the reins. The Trojans were gutted by the portal, and they returned just four starters, and it has looked like it so far, as Troy has been slow to develop any chemistry. Troy suffered a 28-26 loss to Nevada at home as a 7.5-point favorite in the opener before getting pounded by Memphis 38-17 as a 19-point underdog last Saturday. Iowa hasn’t been the ugly offensive unit it has been in the past few seasons. Iowa routed FCS Illinois State 40-0, covering as a 21-point favorite, before getting nipped 20-19 by Iowa State in its annual rivalry game. The best play here is the Over, as the books are still using 2023 thinking with this Iowa side. The Hawkeyes have averaged nearly 400 total yards of offense so far, and the run game is banging, with 222.5 yards per game. Look for Iowa to score plenty against Troy, and we should see this game into the 40s at the very least.
Pick: Over 38.5
-Daniel Dobish
UTSA vs. Texas
Texas is coming off a trip to The Big House and turning it into their house as they beat the defending national champion Michigan convincingly. We knew the Longhorns would have a high-powered offense, but the defense held the Wolverines to just 12 points and 3-of-12 on third downs. The college football playoffs were expanded for a team like UTSA. Many experts believe they would be a contender in the C-USA and get one of those spots. They didn't help their argument as they are coming off getting smashed by Texas State. If the Roadrunners are going to compete, Owen McCown will need to play a large part because they have no run game and are averaging an abysmal 2.5 yards per carry. Michigan was one-dimensional last week, and you see what happened: UTSA doesn't have a chance.
Pick: Texas -35
-John Supowitz
Georgia vs. Kentucky
The Wildcats are coming off a 25-point home loss to South Carolina. That means the Bulldogs are going to win this game with ease, right? While last week was a lookahead for Kentucky, this week is a lookahead for Georgia. The Bulldogs have a bye week next week, then they go to Alabama. Meanwhile, this is the Super Bowl for Kentucky. While the Bulldogs are still going to win, the circumstances point to this being a game played within three scores. This is a trap from oddsmakers, and unfortunately, many bettors are going to see the spread and blindly bet Georgia. What bettors need to remember is that Georgia faced Georgia Tech in their game before Alabama last year, and they only won by eight. When a line is this fishy, always look a little deeper.
Pick: Kentucky +23
-Phil Wood
Indiana vs. UCLA
Indiana looks to rudely welcome UCLA to the Big Ten in its first official conference matchup at the Rose Bowl. It’s rather shocking to see the Hoosiers as a road favorite against the Bruins, but head coach Curt Cignetti, the former James Madison coach, has this team playing well. Indiana roughed up Florida International 31-7 in the opener while tattooing FCS Western Illinois 77-3 last weekend to cover s a 45-point favorite. We’ve seen UCLA just once so far this season, and it wasn’t particularly impressive. It won 16-13 at Hawaii on Aug. 31, but it didn’t come close to covering as a 13.5-point favorite in DeShaun Foster’s debut as head coach. The UCLA offense was moribund in the first half of that Hawaii game, but it rebounded nicely in the second half. With two weeks to game plan for the Hoosiers, UCLA is a tempting play at home on the moneyline in the conference opener at the Rose Bowl. However, take the Bruins with the points for a little wiggle room, just in case.
Pick: UCLA +3.5
-Daniel Dobish
Air Force vs. Baylor
The Bear’s pass defense was impressive against Utah last week. That won’t do them any good against Air Force this week, as the Falcons have rushed for nearly 200 more yards than they’ve thrown for. The Falcons want to run the ball often, but their attack isn’t as potent as it’s been in years past. Because of that, the Bears should come away with this win. But will the Falcons’ rushing attack slow the game down enough to limit the Bears’ possessions and prevent them scoring enough to cover this spread? We really don’t know. What we do know is that the Bears’ rush defense hasn’t been great so far, and the Falcons are going to drain a lot of clock every time they step on the field. Rather than guessing on the spread, we’re going to back the under. If Baylor dominates, then the Falcons won’t score, and the Bears aren’t going to score more than 41 on their own.
Pick: Under 41.5
-Phil Wood
Colorado vs. Colorado State
The Colorado Buffaloes took a beating on the road against Nebraska last weekend, 28-10. Shedeur Sanders didn't finish the game after he was sacked five times and hurried and hit way more. That said, as long as Sanders is healthy for this one, the Colorado offense should be spectacular this weekend. Sanders already has 689 yards passing in two games and has tallied five passing touchdowns. He'll take on a Colorado State secondary that has looked absolutely abysmal to start the season. Colorado State had already lost to Texas 52-0 and watched Quinn Ewers dissect the defense. Now it's Sanders' turn. Back Colorado at -7.5. They'll rebound from last week.
Pick: Colorado -7.5
-Jason Radowitz
UCF vs. TCU
UCF and TCU both looked relatively strong at the beginning of the season. UCF is 2-0 with easy wins against New Hampshire and Sam Houston State. But they've scored more than 100 points in those two games and have allowed just 17. Ultimately, UCF will have its first real test against TCU, which is also 2-0 with wins against Stanford and LIU. The UCF Knights have rostered former Arkansas quarterback K.J. Jefferson, who had his ups and downs. Yet, his QBR of 37.8 against New Hampshire and Sam Houston State isn't impressive. The run game has shown up behind RJ Harvey, but he'll settle down against an above-average TCU run defense. Meanwhile, Josh Hoover has controlled the TCU offense with 620 yards passing and four touchdowns with no interceptions. While he's younger than Jefferson, I trust his decision-making and accuracy way more. Take TCU at home +2.5 (-115).
Pick: TCU +2.5
-Jason Radowitz
San Diego State vs. California
After a surprising win against Auburn, the California Golden Bears are riding high into their Week 3 matchup against San Diego State. On the other hand, San Diego State just lost 21-0 to Oregon State, failing to score a single point in its Week 2 matchup. Aztecs' QB Danny O'Neil threw for 107 yards on 11-for-24 from the field and had a QBR of 8.5 against Oregon State. Just imagine what California will do to him after forcing four interceptions against Payton Thorne last week. The Golden Bears also held Thorne to 165 yards passing and a QBR of 28.9. Give me California at -17.5 (-110).
Pick: California -17.5
-Jason Radowitz