College Football Week 3 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Long Shot Bets (2023)
In Week 2 we saw a few more huge upsets including a stunner in Tuscaloosa. With Texas's big win at Alabama we won our second long shot pick of the season too. Week 3 is ripe with opportunities to keep this hot streak rolling. Let's take a look at a few of my favorite plays this week.
Best Week 3 College Football Longshot Bets
Massachusetts (+285) at Eastern Michigan (-9)
The Minutemen will travel to Ypsilanti to take on Eastern Michigan. The Minutemen are coming off back to back losses where they struggled to keep their opponent out of the endzone. The first loss to Auburn was quite forgivable. However, last Saturday they gave up a lot of big plays to Miami (OH). It's been an issue the Minutemen have struggled with all season, but their opponent this weekend may not be able to take advantage of this weakness. In two games this year, against FCS Howard and Minnesota, the Eagles have only managed five plays of 20 or more yards all season, and only one over 25. When Massachusetts manages to limit the big plays the defense has been effective.
Offensively, UMass has been worlds better than they were last season. They really got going in Week 0 against NMSU and followed it up with a solid performance against Miami in Week 2. QB Carlos Davis has given them the ability to rely on the passing game, something they've sorely missed for a while. Having a competent offense will give them an advantage against an EMU defense that has struggled regardless of what the final scores have said. Howard was able to move six drives into EMU territory in Week 1 but managed only 23 points. Minnesota followed that up with seven drives into EMU territory, managing only 24. The Eagles have been fortunate defensively to not give up more points.
SP+ ranks both of these teams in the bottom 30 in all of FBS. Years of poor UMass teams are controlling the narrative on a team that has shown to be incredibly competent on offense. Conversely, EMU has been on a solid run the last few years but this team isn't on those levels. This is a great opportunity for Massachusetts to go on the road and pull off a big upset victory.
South Alabama (+240) at Oklahoma State (-7)
South Alabama had a phenomenal season in 2022 finishing with a 10-3 record including an epic one-point loss on the road to UCLA. All of that is to say, South Alabama can win in Stillwater. A Week 1 loss at Tulane is the only stain on their early resume. After Tulane nearly went to Oxford and upset Ole Miss without their starting quarterback, that loss looks more palatable.
Oklahoma State has two double-digit wins on their resume to the likes of FCS Central Arkansas and rebuilding Arizona State. Neither of those wins were impressive as the Cowboys managed just 27 points in each contest. Against Central Arkansas, the Cowboys needed two fourth quarter touchdowns to pull away. Last week against Arizona State it was a 17-0 second half that erased a 15-10 halftime deficit. This team is ripe for getting upset and the Jaguars of South Alabama are just the team to do it.
The run defense of the Jaguars has been great to start the season, holding both Tulane and FCS SE Louisiana to under 3.7 yards per rush. The pass defense has been more susceptible to big plays, but the Oklahoma State passing attack isn't poised to exploit that. The Cowboys have tried three different quarterbacks this season and none have really taken control of the offense. This could be a tight, defensive battle, but it's something the Jaguars are comfortable with. I love South Alabama to leave Stillwater with a win on Saturday night.
BYU (+275) at Arkansas (-8)
My final pick of the Week 3 slate takes us to Arkansas where BYU will look to pull off an upset win. Arkansas had some high hopes coming into this season with QB KJ Jefferson returning in a wide open SEC West. They've started 2-0 but the offense hasn't lived up to the expectations. In Week 1 they handled FCS Western Carolina, but a Week 2 matchup with Kent State saw the offense stall out. They averaged only 3.8 yards per run against a Kent State defense that couldn't get a stop against UCF the previous week. BYU has shown already that they're more than comfortable to get into an ugly low-scoring game.
BYU played in an alarming 14-0 game against former FCS Sam Houston State in Week 1. They struggled to move the ball on the ground and in the air with QB Kevon Slovis. Slovis changed course Week 2 against FCS Southern Utah. He lit up their defense for five touchdowns. Slovis will need to be sharp again for BYU to have a chance as Arkansas has been pretty solid on run defense, giving up just 0.7 yards per rush against Kent State.
This should be a low scoring game between two really strong defenses. BYU showed that they can make big plays on offense although against SUU, Arkansas wasn't able to do that against Kent State and that's a concern. A couple big plays and the Cougars have a really great chance to leave Arkansas with a big win before Big XII play starts.
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