College Football Week 3 Picks & Predictions: Bogman’s Best Bets

by Scott Bogman |
Sep 14, 2023

College Football stole the show last Saturday, as Texas upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa, Ala., and Coach Prime and his Colorado Buffaloes had a convincing win over Nebraska.

Weâ€™ll see a lot of rivalry games on this weekendâ€™s slate, including in Boulder, Colo., where â€œCollege Gamedayâ€ will be set for the first time since 1996.

Letâ€™s get to the action with my best bets for College Football Week 3.

College Football Week 3 Picks & Predictions

Week 2 Record: 4-6 | 2023 Record: 9-11 | Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Colorado State @ #18 Colorado

Colorado has every reason to keep their foot on the gas, as theyâ€™re at home, under the lights, hosting â€œCollege Gamedayâ€ and will have all eyes on them.

My co-host on the â€œBettingPros College Football Show,â€ Mike Farrell, said it best: â€œDeion Sanders is a master motivator.â€ Sanders will use the in-state rivalry to gas up his players for The Rocky Mountain Showdown. Colorado State has won this game only six of 20 times since 2000, and Colorado is 67-22-2 all-time in this game.

Colorado just will not be stopped on offense by Colorado State. CSU returns some good starters on defense, but that didn't stop them from allowing 556 yards to Washington State in their opener two weeks ago. WSU had 466 yards passing and dominated time of possession 37:28-22:32 in that game. CSU did have two weeks to prepare for Colorado, but they had an entire offseason to prepare for WSU and were still handled at home.

Colorado is simply the better team, specifically on the offensive side of the ball. With Shedeur Sanders at QB and his father on the sideline, I believe this will be an all-out dismantling of CSU. The magic will, of course, run out at some point for the Buffs. But on the road against Oregon in Week 4 seems like a more appropriate time. Colorado cruises at home big time!

Bet: Colorado 23.5 (-110)

#7 Penn State @ Illinois

These are two teams that are heading in different directions. Illinois is on its way down, with a new QB, new RB and three new starting DBs, this team is just not the same as they were last season.

Penn State hasn't been challenged, but they are on fire offensively. Drew Allar is 43/55 (78.2%). The RBs, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen have but up 461 rushing yards in two games and have only dropped three passes.

Illinois is 123rd in rushing yards allowed so far, giving up over 220 yards per game on the ground. Penn State has missed 15 tackles on defense, while Illinois has missed 39. Penn State has allowed one sack, while Illinois has allowed eight (only six teams have allowed more, and two have played three games).

The opponents haven't been tough for Penn State (West Virginia and Delaware), but Illinois isn't much of a step up with the way they've been playing. Give me the Nittany Lions by way of more than 14.5

Bet: Penn State -14.5 (-110)

Kansas @ Nevada

Kansas was very impressive against Illinois last week, but as noted, Illinois has not been very good this season. This is more of a bet fading Nevada.

Nevada had a tough opener against USC but also lost to FCS Idaho. Idaho is a good FCS team (ranked in the top 10 of the FCS coaches poll), but Nevada gave up 463 yards of offense. The Wolf Pack might be more inept on offense, as they've only scored 20 points through two games. Nevada ranks 118th in offensive yards per game and ranks 126th in offense, according to PFF.

Kansas looked unstoppable last week on offense with Jalon Daniels back at QB, and they will go through Nevada like a hot knife through butter. This is an enormous number for a road team that I would call 'middle of the road' on defense, but they should score a ton of points, and Nevada has nothing on offense. Rock Chalk will roll!

Bet: Kansas -28 (-110)

South Carolina @ #1 Georgia

Georgia is another team that hasn't been challenged yet. The Bulldogs opened up against Tennessee-Martin and Ball State and have scored 93 points so far. South Carolina has been a mixed bag after only putting up 17 on UNC and then destroying FCS Furman 41-7.

South Carolina runs a fast-paced offense, 18th in plays per game (79), but I don't think they really need to do a ton of scoring, as Georgia has put up at least 40 points against them in each of the last three seasons. South Carolina only scored seven points last season in this game, but they were a different offense in the last seven games, averaging over 30 points per game.

Spencer Rattler only missed two passes last week (25/27 345-3), albeit against an FCS opponent (Furman is #8 in the FCS Coaches poll). With the way Georgia is playing on offense, I think they'll get 40, so we just need SC to put up half of that. Still, if they look terrible on offense with that quick pace, they'll give UGA short fields. I think there are a few paths to this total, with the most likely being a 40-45 total from UGA, with SC doing the rest!

Bet: OVER 54.5 (-110)

Other Bets I Like:

#3 Florida State @ Boston College OVER 47.5 (-110)
Kansas State -4 @ Missouri (-110)
Northern Illinois @ Nebraska -11 (-110)
North Texas +4.5 @ Louisiana Tech (-110)
Georgia Tech @ #17 Ole Miss -18 (-110)
UTEP @ Arizona OVER 57 (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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