Bogman’s College Football Week 4 Best Bets & Predictions (2022)
Check out Bogman’s Week 4 best bets for the college football season!
- Bogman’s Week 3 Record: 7-3
- 2022 Record: 21-9
Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 4 College Football Power Rankings >>
Kansas vs. Duke OVER 64.5
Let’s go with another Kansas Over and ride this wave! I’ve hammered the narrative of Jalon Daniels scoring at least 28 points in every game he’s started. Last week, the Jayhawks put up their lowest total of the season with only 48 points against Houston. This top 3 scoring offense is fueled by the run game, which is currently seventh in the country, averaging 259 ground yards per game. Duke’s offense hasn’t been as effective, but the Blue Devils have put up at least 30 points in each of their three wins. Duke’s offense is also fueled by the run game, ranking 38th in the nation and averaging 205 yards per game.
The only thing that might be concerning is that these teams are 97th (Kansas) and 106th (Duke) in plays per game. This total still holds up if we look at Points Per Drive and drop to the lowest drives either team has had in a game at 8; that final would be 42-28.
These defenses have been less than impressive. Kansas has given up at least 30 points to the two P5 teams they’ve played. Duke is much better at scoring defense. They gave up 435 passing yards to Northwestern and 217 rushing yards to FCS NCA&T, proving this defense can get beat either way. Of course, these are short sample sizes, but if we go back to last year’s defenses, we are talking about the 129th-ranked scoring defense from Kansas (42.2 PPG), and Duke wasn’t much better at 127th (39.8 PPG).
I thought that the Kansas offense would control this game. In the two P5 games Kansas has played, the average total was 87.5. The total we have is 3 TDs short of that, so it feels safe to me!
Bet: Over 64.5 (-110 on DraftKings)
#18 Washington (-14) vs. Stanford
Michael Penix has turned this Huskies offense into the 2nd highest in passing yards per game, and they have looked outstanding. Michigan State was a big test, and they passed with flying colors putting up 503 total yards and 397 through the air. Washington has also been much stronger than expected on Defense through 3 games, only giving up an average of 18 PPG. The Huskies also rank in the top 30 in rushing defense and top 40 in passing defense, despite being up by at least 18 points at halftime of all three games they’ve played.
Stanford is a team that can jump up and bites a stronger opponent. They did it to Oregon last season, and they played Washington tough, losing by only a TD. Stanford only lost to USC by 13 points last week, but they scored twice in the final two minutes, and their leading offensive producer, RB E.J. Smith, is out for this game with an undisclosed injury.
Washington’s offense is why I think they run away with this game because it will pressure Stanford to abandon the run and pass in the 2nd half, leading to either short fields or turnovers for Washington. Stanford QB Tanner McKee is a big-time recruit and is on NFL radars, but he made some mistakes last week, throwing two picks and taking five sacks. Washington isn’t the get-right game for Stanford, and I have the Huskies winning big.
Bet: Washington -14 (-104 on FanDuel)
Western Kentucky (-31) vs. FIU and OVER 64.5
This one is simply a mismatch, and most teams versus FIU is a lopsided game, but this should be the week that WKU explodes on offense. This is the same offensive system that produced 63 passing TDs in 2021, 15 more than runner-up Alabama! QB Austin Reed hasn’t been what Bailey Zappe was last year. He’s only thrown for 300 yards once (Zappe only had one game under 300 last season), and he hasn’t quite hit an eye-popping game yet. This game is probably one in which WKU will want him to build his confidence, potentially running up the score while the foot is firmly on the gas.
FIU was ranked very low on about every publication coming into the season, and they have lived up to that expectation. FIU held off FCS Bryant by one point in Week 1, and they were stomped by Texas State 41-12 in Week 2, allowing them to pile up 452 yards of offense. Texas State lost to Nevada in Week 1, we are scraping the bottom of the FBS barrel here, and FIU is getting blown out.
WKU will get the majority of this total themselves and, in doing so, will probably cruise right past this massive spread as well! All gas and no brakes for the Hilltoppers!
Bet: Western Kentucky -31 (-115 on DraftKings) and OVER 64.5 (-110 on BetMGM)
#8 Kentucky vs. Northern Illinois UNDER 53.5
Kentucky is going to control this game, and I expect it to be a bit of a slog, specifically as this game wraps up. Kentucky shouldn’t have a problem scoring. Northern Illinois has given up at least 27 points to each of their three opponents, and the low total was to Eastern Kentucky. EKU is an 0-3 FCS team that didn’t match that total in their other two games against FCS opponents. NIU has put up some points so far, scoring at least 29 points in each of those three games. Unfortunately, the NIU offense took a hit when starting QB Rocky Lombardi left with a knee injury last week against Vanderbilt. Lombardi’s status is up in the air for this weekend, but it seems likely they’ll either have their starter at less than 100% or a backup QB against a top 10 team.
I have said many times, including in the last game, that many teams get in rhythm against an opponent they are heavily favored against, as is the case here. I don’t think Kentucky will keep their starters on the field deep into the game if it turns into a blowout, as they will be traveling to face Ole Miss in Oxford next week. Will Levis hasn’t been crisp this season with 4 INTs already and one in each game, and the Wildcats have been without one of their best offensive players in RB Chris Rodriguez, who is supposed to return next week.
Kentucky could beat NIU so badly that they cover the majority of this total, but they have played worse teams than NIU, and none of their three games have hit this total. Kentucky not being crisp, an injured starting QB for NIU, and the fact the Wildcats will want to keep the starters healthy for a road SEC game next week all add up to me loving the under in this one!
Bet: Under 53.5 (-108 on FanDuel)
Bogman’s Other Week 4 Bets:
- USC (-6.5) @ Oregon State
- Ole Miss (-21.5) vs. Tulsa
- Cal vs. Arizona UNDER 50.5
- Troy (+3.5) vs. Marshall
- Georgia Southern (-9.5) vs. Ball State
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