College Football Week 4: Early Lines, Odds, & Predictions
While there weren’t many marquee games on the Week 3 college football slate, we found enough action across the board from Thursday through Saturday to wind up profitable. Our lone loser was Texas State failing to cover +2.5, losing by three points after blowing three separate leads to Arizona State.
In Week 4, we’ve got a couple of blue-chip Power 4 programs facing off, giving us plenty of quality betting markets to wager on the upcoming slate of games. We wound up 3-1 with our Week 3 best bets, so let’s keep the momentum rolling with my latest line movement analysis to predict four games on the Week 4 college football slate.
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College Football Early Line Movement: Week 4
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
| Away | Home | Open Spread | Current Spread | Open Total | Current Total | Spread +/- | Total +/- |
| Illinois | Nebraska | -8 | -9 | 43.5 | 43.5 | -1 | 0 |
| USC | Michigan | +2.5 | +6 | 47 | 46.5 | +3.5 | -0.5 |
| Utah | Oklahoma State | +1.5 | +1.5 | 52 | 52 | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Oklahoma | +3 | +7 | 58 | 58 | +4 | 0 |
Illinois (24) vs. Nebraska (22)
We’re starting with a top-25 Big Ten clash on Friday night, as Illinois travels to Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Nebraska to face freshman QB Dylan Raiola and the Cornhuskers. Nebraska handled Colorado 28-10 during Week 2, while its defense has yet to surrender more than 10 points in any game through three weeks.
Illinois is 3-0 with a signature win over Kansas, beating the Jayhawks 23-17 at home in Week 2. This is head coach Bret Bielema’s first road game with his current roster, heading into a hostile environment under the lights on Friday night. The Fighting Illini have only surrendered two total touchdowns this season, including 0 rushing touchdowns.
43.5 total points isn’t a lot, but it’s due to the strength of these two defensive units. There’s been no line movement on this total either. I can see Nebraska winding up with a 20-16 or 24-13 victory on Friday night, so let’s stake a unit on under 43.5 total points between Illinois and Nebraska.
Best Bet: Under 43.5 Total Points (-112)
USC (11) vs. Michigan (18)
USC had a bye week and is well-rested for its road trip to Ann Arbor to face Michigan in Week 4. The Trojans will hope to replicate what the Texas Longhorns did to the Wolverines in Week 2.
Michigan QB Warren Davis continues to struggle with interceptions and inefficient decision-making, forcing the running game to be the focal point of the offense. Unfortunately for the Wolverines, USC has a much improved defense that held LSU to 20 points and shutout its next opponent. The point spread has ballooned up from Michigan +2.5 to +6 at home, while the point total has dipped down half a point to 46.5
USC head coach Lincoln Riley is a fantastic offensive mind and he should be able to scheme up plenty of looks for QB Miller Moss and the rest of the Trojans’ offense to score at will. I like USC to cover -6 on the road coming off of a bye and facing an inept Michigan offense.
Best Bet: USC -6 (-108)
Utah (12) vs. Oklahoma State (14)
A massive Big 12 matchup between Utah and Oklahoma State will kickoff on Saturday afternoon from Stillwater, Oklahoma. The Cowboys are currently +1.5 on the point spread, making Oklahoma State home underdogs against the Utes.
Utah’s biggest issue is the health of QB Cam Rising, who did not play during their 38-21 win against Utah State in Week 3. Even if Rising does suit up for this matchup in Week 4, his injury history is concerning, while Oklahoma State’s defense has been stout defending the pass.
I like backing the home underdog in this spot, especially with RB Ollie Gordon dominating for Oklahoma State, alongside multiple starters who returned from 2023. Continuity and the ability to score over 35 points in all three games, including an overtime win over Arkansas in Week 2, means we should see the Cowboys create plenty of explosives and out-score the run-centric Utah offense, forcing them to play catch-up and abandon their tendencies.
Best Bet: Oklahoma State +1.5 (-108)
Tennessee (6) vs. Oklahoma (15)
The final matchup we’re targeting is an SEC showdown between Tennessee and Oklahoma on Saturday night in Norman. There’s been a ton of line movement in favor of Tennessee in this game, which is justified based on how dominant the Volunteers have looked against their opponents leading up to Week 4.
Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava and RB Dylan Sampson are a potent one-two punch in the Vols’ backfield, however, it’s the Tennessee defense that deserves its flowers. The Volunteers defense has yet to give up a touchdown in 2024, allowing 1.8 YPC and under a 60 percent completion rate to opposing quarterbacks.
It may be a long night for the Sooners at home, who barely held on against Houston 16-12 in Week 2, while narrowly avoiding an upset against Tulane with a strong fourth-quarter finish. Let’s stake another unit on Tennessee at -7 before this number gets to double-digits by Saturday morning.
Best Bet: Tennessee -7 (-115)
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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.