College Football Week 4 Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
Gear up for another awesome weekend of college football action with BettingPros! We’ll have you covered with all of our top picks for the week along with our projected spreads and totals to help guide your college football bets. Below are our top picks and predictions for Week 4 college football games.
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Top College Football Odds & Picks: Week 4
North Carolina State vs. Clemson
The North Carolina State Wolfpack will head on the road to take on the Clemson Tigers for their first ACC game. The Wolfpack most recently knocked off Louisiana Tech, 30-20, but had previously lost to Tennesseee, 51-10, on a neutral field. On the other hand, Clemson rebounded from a 34-3 loss to Georgia with a 66-20 win against Appalachian State a couple of weeks ago. Clemson was off last week with a bye week. Therefore, Clemson’s more likely better prepared and less banged up heading into this weekend. Despite Clemson’s struggles against Georgia earlier in the year, the Tigers should find enough offense against North Carolina State’s average defense. The Wolfpack have allowed nearly 245 yards passing and another 137 yards on the ground per game this season. That won’t be good enough against Clemson. I’ll back the Clemson Tigers at -20.5 (-110).
Pick: Clemson -20.5
-Jason Radowitz
Florida vs. Mississippi State
Let’s talk about two powerhouse programs that are down bad. The Gators have yet to beat an FBS program, and they’ve been outscored 74-37, with both games at home. These are just one of those teams that aren’t playing well anywhere; RB Montrell Johnson Jr. makes this a formidable backfield. It might be worse for Mississippi State as they are coming off a 41-17 home loss to G5 program Toledo. QB Blake Sheppard hasn’t been terrible, but they’ve relied on him too much to move this offense, and he was never that type of player at Baylor. This will be one of those games that will be terrible, but you won’t be able to take your eyes off it. Miss State is bad, but against another bad team, they shouldn’t be six-point dogs.
Pick: Mississippi State +6
-John Supowitz
Houston vs. Cincinnati
What do we make of this Houston team? The Cougars very nearly defeated the Oklahoma Sooners in Norman while holding them to 249 yards of offense. But they lost by 20 the week before to UNLV. It doesn’t add up. Meanwhile, the Bearcats are 2-1, with their only loss coming by one point to Pittsburgh. The Bearcats haven’t thrown an interception this season, though they have lost five fumbles. They’ll need to take care of the football in this game to cover the spread, but they shouldn’t have any trouble doing just that against the Cougars. Houston has that tough loss to the Sooners, but maybe the Sooners just aren’t that good this year. Take the home team to win by more than a field goal.
Pick: Cincinnati -3.5
-Phil Wood
Kansas vs. West Virginia
Neither the Jayhawks nor the Mountaineers have beaten an FBS team this season. With that in mind, it’s hard to know what to expect when it comes to the spread for this game. Therefore, we’re looking at the total. The Mountaineers have put up some points this season, but their defense hasn’t been good. They’ve allowed 34 or more points in two of their three games. The Jayhawks have been held to 20 or fewer in both games against FBS competition, but the offense is ready to explode against a weak defense. Oddsmakers seem to agree as they have this number set at 56.5. They could have easily set this under 50, and some bettors would still be taking the under. The total feels like a trap to take the under. Don’t fall for it.
Pick: Over 56.5
-Phil Wood
USC vs. Michigan
Michigan will be turning to backup quarterback Alex Orji under center this week. Orji has served primarily as the mobile quarterback used in Wildcat or Option packages for the Wolverines in the past. And while he is a dual-threat quarterback, I’m not convinced he can actually complete a forward pass when he has to. While Orji will make preparation a bit more difficult, this Wolverines offense is pretty limited. Plus, USC has a defense! New defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn has turned USC’s defense into a respectable, albeit not elite unit. But it’s a far cry from the Trojans defense that couldn’t get stops the last few years. While the Wolverines are down offensively, Michigan’s defense is still strong, ranking top 50 in both rushing and passing yards allowed per attempt. The Trojans are off a bye, but this will also be their first Big Ten game and true road trip of the season. I can’t justify laying the points in this spot against the defending national champs. But I do think scoring will be at a premium.
Pick: Under 44.5
-Matt Barbato
Miami (OH) vs. Notre Dame
Notre Dame needed a bounce back after one of the worst losses in recent memory and last week, they did. They showed no mercy to Purdue with a 66-7 win. The defense is one of the best in the country; the run game with Jeremiyah Love and Riley Leonard is excellent, but Leonard has yet to throw a passing touchdown. That is a huge concern as they roll through the season. It’s not been a great start to the season for Miami (OH). Two losses to Power Four programs, and the offense has been no help with just two touchdowns. The Redhawks have always been an excellent defense under Chuck Martin, and that’s helped them stay competitive in these games. This could be another one of those grind-them-out games, and we’ll stick with Miami keeping games low-scoring.
Pick: Under 43.5
-John Supowitz
Arizona State vs. Texas Tech
When you think of these two teams you may be tempted to think about the offenses. Arizona State has come out of the gate cruising. 36.3 PPG through three games has the Sun Devils 3-0 on the season. They’ve had an elite run offense, ranking 12th in EPA per play on rushes. They’ll be going up against a Texas Tech team that allowed over 6 yards per run against Washington State in Week 2. Offensively though, there is little concern for the Red Raiders. They put up 66 points in a stomping of North Texas. This was a result of some big plays by the Red Raider offense against an overmatched defense in North Texas. Defensively they did a lot to slow down the Mean Green holding them to just 173 yards and seven points in the first half. Arizona State should have some better luck against this team than North Texas did and give them fits. Although these are both two strong offensive teams, defensively they have a lot going for them and this game should play out as an under.
Pick: Under 60.5
-Ryan Rodeman
Utah vs. Oklahoma State
With Cam Rising injured (again), the future did not look bright for the Utes. The offense was stagnant without him vs. Baylor and wasn’t much better in the first half vs. Utah State. But it was decent in the second half as the team rolled up 468 yards of offense and 32 points in the win. Oklahoma State has not been dominating with the run game behind Ollie Gordon as expected, but Alan Bowman is 6th in the nation with 967 yards passing through three games. Utah’s defense is good enough to contain Bowman and keep Gordon from getting on track. Oklahoma State’s defense could struggle against a Cam Rising-led offense. If he does play, as expected, Utah could pull off the upset here.
Pick: Utah ML (+114)
-Travis Pulver
TCU vs. SMU
Both teams will be eager to get back on the right side of the scoreboard after losing their first game of the season last week. TCU will undoubtedly unleash its passing attack (No. 5 in the nation, 351ypg); Josh Hoover threw for 402 yards and four touchdowns last week in the loss to UCF. SMU’s offense struggled in their loss to BYU, losing 18-15. The defense tried to help them with a pair of interceptions, but the offense couldn’t get on track. SMU has done well in recent years vs. non-ranked teams at home, with wins in ten of the last 11 matchups; TCU has lost three of its last four road games vs. non-ranked teams. However, the SMU defense will not contain the TCU passing game for four quarters. But the SMU run game could keep the Horned Frogs offense off the field. If they do, TCU’s quick strike ability will save the day.
Pick: TCU -3
-Travis Pulver
Tennessee vs. Oklahoma
Everything about this spot screams bet the home dog. Oklahoma, while rather unimpressive, has started the season 3-0, and are more than touchdown underdogs in their first ever SEC game on their home field. If you want to blindly back the Sooners here, I get it. But there are concerns. An offensive line with five new starters entering the year hasn’t gelled, and worse has been stricken by injuries. That’s resulted in a Sooners offense that resembles a vintage car that sometimes runs like a dream and others can’t even get started. And that came against Temple, Houston and Tulane. Meanwhile, Tennessee rolls into Norman as one of the most intriguing teams in the country. During this 3-0 start, they’ve outscored Chattanooga, NC State and Kent State 191-13. The question will be whether Oklahoma’s offensive line can protect QB Jackson Arnold against James Pearce and a strong Volunteers front seven. If they can, there could be opportunities for the Sooners passing attack against a Vols secondary that ranks 20th in yards per pass attempt allowed, but hasn’t been tested much this year. While Oklahoma’s defense boasts a strong front seven, the secondary hasn’t been great. That doesn’t bode well against Nico Iamaleava and Tennessee’s unique passing game that’s predicated on wide formations and choice routes. While I can’t make a call on the spread, I do think we’ll see some points in Norman.
Pick: Over 57
-Matt Barbato
Baylor vs. Colorado
The Buffaloes got back on track in Week 3, taking care of business against Colorado State with a 28-9 win. Shedeur Sanders threw for 310 yards and four touchdowns in that game. While it was good for the Buffaloes to bounce back after a bad performance in Week 2, they’re back against a Power 5 team this week, and that’s bad news for them. The Bears held Utah to just 292 total yards earlier this season. Most impressive about the performance was that the game was played in Salt Lake City. Baylor’s defense will prove too much for the Colorado offensive line. Sanders may make a few great plays to keep his team in the game early, but as the contest unfolds, the size and talent of the Bears will win out where it matters. Don’t just take the Bears to cover, take them to win.
Pick: Baylor ML (+105)
-Phil Wood
Purdue vs. Oregon State
A week after Notre Dame was upset by Northern Illinois, Purdue lost to Notre Dame, 66-7. Yes, part of it was Purdue just not being good enough, but another part was Notre Dame just taking out all of its frustration on Purdue last week. Ultimately, Purdue has only played two games heading into Week 4. They knocked off Indiana State, 49-0, and lost to Notre Dame, 66-7. Those are two completely different outcomes. Meanwhile, Oregon State just lost a home game to Oregon, 49-14, after earning a 21-0 win over San Diego State on the road. Again, we’re faced with different outcomes. Overall, Oregon State’s secondary has impressed on defense, and the run game behind Anthony Hankerson has excelled. I’ll trust Oregon State at home at -4.5 (-110).
Pick: Oregon State -4.5
-Jason Radowitz
Kansas State vs. BYU
The Wildcats head to Provo a week and a day after their impressive 31-7 victory over a ranked Arizona team at home in the Big 12 opener. K-State was dominant, shutting down a tremendous pass-catch combination, and QB Avery Johnson showed that he is a budding star. However, the Wildcats had difficulty in their previous road game, barely escaping 34-27 at Tulane two weeks ago. BYU returns home for the first time since Aug. 31, a walkthrough against FCS Southern Illinois. The Cougars went to SMU and to Wyoming, winning and covering both times. QB Jake Retzlaff has been adequate, but he does have three INTs, which he needs to correct. He also leads the team in rushing. The defense has been a major reason for BYU’s surprising start, allowing just 14.0 PPG through three games, and it will be a major reason why the Cougars grab the cover at home Saturday. It wouldn’t be surprising to see BYU get the win outright, too.
Pick: BYU +6.5
-Daniel Dobish
Northwestern vs. Washington
Northwestern hits the road for Washington, and the Wildcats are going to find an angry bunch of Huskies in Seattle. Washington suffered a 24-19 setback against rival Washington State in last week’s Apple Cup, losing outright as a 6-point favorite. Luckily for the Huskies, the Wildcats don’t have a dominant dual-threat option like QB John Mateer. Northwestern does have an adequate defense, shutting down the likes of Miami (Ohio) and Eastern Illinois, but this is also a Wildcats D which allowed 26 points in an OT loss to Duke on Sept. 6. The Wildcats have benched QB Mike Wright in favor of Jack Lausch, who was solid against EIU. But, that’s an FCS foe, not an angry conference member. If Northwestern falls behind early, and that’s the expectation here, it isn’t built to be a come-from-behind team. The hole will continue to get deeper and deeper, as Washington takes out its day on the visitors, making up for last week’s disappointing setback.
Pick: Washington -10.5
-Daniel Dobish
Iowa vs. Minnesota
Ah, the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy. It’s one of the best rivalry game trophies in the game. If you don’t know, look it up. Iowa heads to Huntington Bank Stadium in the Twin Cities for the first true road game of the season. While Iowa’s offense has been a little better than past seasons, where the offense was as exciting as watching grass grow, the jury is still out on this team. It coasted by Illinois State and Troy, but the Hawkeyes fell into old, bad habits in a 20-19 loss to Iowa State in its only previous game against a Power 4 team. Minnesota has bounced back with back-to-back shutouts of URI and Nevada after a gut-wrenching 19-17 loss to UNC Aug. 29 on a missed game-winning field goal at the buzzer. This is going to look like a 2023 Hawkeyes game, with a ton of defense, and few scores. Minnesota took Floyd home with a 12-10 win last season, and the Under is 4-1 in the past five meetings.
Pick: Under 35.5
-Daniel Dobish
Arkansas vs. Auburn
The Auburn Tigers are sticking with redshirt freshman Hank Brown at quarterback. Brown led Auburn to a 45-19 win over New Mexico after he completed four touchdown passes without an interception. This probably isn’t a fair assessment since Brown only played against New Mexico, but he sure looked better than former starter Payton Throne in Week 3. On the other hand, Arkansas struggled to put away UAB at home last week. The Razorbacks allowed 27 points, including three passing touchdowns, to the Blazers in a 37-27 win. Arkansas’ pass defense has been suspect. This will be a good test for Brown as he should have plenty of opportunity to push the ball down the field with his arm. In addition, the Arkansas’ run game is excellent behind Ja’Quinden Jackson. But Auburn has only allowed 97.33 yards on the ground per game this season. Give me Auburn at -3. (-105).
Pick: Auburn -3
-Jason Radowitz
UCLA vs. LSU
It was a tale of two halves for LSU last week against South Carolina. They had trouble moving the ball, and they couldn’t defend, and it looked like they would start the 1-2. Offensively, they got much better, and Garrett Nussmeier stepped up and finished with 285 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. Defensively, they are still struggling, especially that front that can’t put pressure on the quarterback or stop the run. UCLA had two weeks to prepare for a home battle against Indiana, and they were done from the opening kick. This offense looks terrible; Ethan Garber and T.J. Harden are veterans who should be carrying this team and haven’t lived up to expectations. When your leaders aren’t playing, it spreads to the whole team. LSU should roll to a win in Death Valley, but the over looks like the better bet, especially because you can’t trust the Tigers’ defense.
Pick: Over 56
-John Supowitz
Vanderbilt vs. Missouri
The Commodores have been surprisingly competitive this season, with two wins under their metaphorical belt already. They suffered their first loss of the season last week vs. Georgia State, despite taking the lead with just over a minute left. But the defense couldn’t hold, and they lost for the first time this season. Missouri was in danger of getting its first L last weekend vs. a scrappy Boston College team. But they were able to pull away in the second half to remain undefeated. Vanderbilt could make this game competitive for a quarter, one half at most. But Missouri stout defense will eventually lock the Commodores offense down. Vanderbilt’s defense is not bad, but it is not enough to keep up with the firepower Missouri has on offense. But the spread is too big and there’s no value in betting Missouri’s ML.
Pick: Over 53.5
-Travis Pulver