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College Football Week 4 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Long Shot Bets (2023)

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Last week was a really successful one for the long-shot article. Both BYU and South Alabama pulled off big upsets, while UMass came up just short to EMU. Week 4 is giving us the first really great lineup of the season. Most of the marquee games are expected to be close. However, there are a few really nice spots for long-shot upsets. Here are a few of my favorites.

Best College Football Week 4 Long Shot Bets

Auburn (+270) at Texas A&M (-8.5)

Both of these teams are playing their first SEC game of the season. Texas A&M has looked, so far, like they've figured out their offensive woes from 2022. They're averaging 467 yards per game, and Connor Weigman has the second-best QBR in the country. The question is whether this offense can perform like that against a top-20 defense. Solid performances against UL Monroe and New Mexico don't really tell us anything. They got into a track meet against Miami, but the defense faltered, which is far more telling than anything they did on offense.

Auburn, meanwhile, has looked really good on offense, too, against their lower-level competition. A game halfway across the country at Cal saw them stall out offensively thanks to five turnovers by the Tiger offense. SP+ thinks this is a bit of an anomaly, too, as they rank 33rd in offense while Texas A&M ranks 27th. Defensively, Auburn has been dominant. They've allowed just 264 yards per game on the season and will be the most complete defense the Aggies have played all season.

The advanced stats show these teams are closer than the over-one-touchdown line the books have set. Road conference games are tough, but Auburn has already shown they can go on the road and win ugly. This will be the toughest test we've seen for both teams so far. Auburn is capable of moving the ball on offense, and Texas A&M has shown some weakness on defense. It's a great opportunity for the Tigers to pull off a big upset conference win.

BYU (+285) at Kansas (-9.5)

For the second week in a row, BYU will go on the road as an underdog of more than a touchdown. For the second week in a row, I'll back the Cougars to pull off the outright win. One of the biggest questions for this BYU team going into last week was whether they could score on a good Power 5 defense. They answered that with a resounding yes with their 38-31 win at Arkansas. The overall numbers don't look impressive, but they were gifted with a few short fields that limited those numbers.

Meanwhile, Kansas's defense hasn't really impressed. They're ranked just 93rd in SP+ defense rankings and allowed poor offenses like Illinois and Nevada to hang around. BYU is more than capable of putting up the points to hang in this game.

QB Jalon Daniels is picking up where he left off last year after his injury, but like last year, the quality of the defenses is in question. Last year, when Kansas finally came up against a good defense, he had a season-worst game, and the offense managed just 213 yards in a 14-11 win against Iowa State. The Cougars could give the Kansas offense fits, which could spell trouble if their defense can't get stops.

It's tough to win on the road in back-to-back weeks, but this BYU team showed me something last week. SP+ ranks BYU higher than Kansas, yet the Cougars are big underdogs. They are more than capable of staying with the Jayhawks, and I'll be back to pull off the win.

UCF (+150) at Kansas State (-3.5)

This game popped off the page as a great opportunity for a long-shot winner when odds dropped on Sunday at around +240 on the ML and Kansas State as over a touchdown favorite. Clearly, I wasn't the only one to think so because as the week has progressed, the price on the Golden Knights has dropped off to where we are now, and for good reason. A lot of the long-shot value has dropped off, but this spot is too good to pass up.

UCF is quietly having a great start to the season. 617.7 yards of offense per game has led them to a 3-0 start. Now Big 12 play begins, and it's a tough game on the road in Manhattan. Normally, that would be a huge concern, but the Knights have already been tested on the road. An 18-16 win at Boise State would make most raise an eyebrow at this pick, but a deeper dive into the box score tells a different story. UCF outgained the Broncos 530-384. Five red zone trips led to just nine points and three turnovers. The close win in their only game against a decent opponent is playing a role in their public perception.

Kansas State has had another great start after winning the Big 12 Championship last season. Wins over SE Missouri and Troy didn't tell us much, but the offense looked great. A close loss at Missouri followed this trend of great offense, but the defense was a concern. The Tigers managed 356 yards in the air and were only sacked twice. This is a concern, as Middle Tennessee was able to get to the Missouri QB four times the week before. If the Wildcats can't put pressure on Plumlee, he may be able to do whatever he wants.

I've been high on the Golden Knights of UCF since the preseason. There is nothing I've seen from them that is getting me off of those expectations. Kansas State is a solid opponent, but it's a defense that UCF can still score against. I like them to do that a lot and start their Big 12 tenure 1-0.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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