College Football Week 4 Odds, Picks & Predictions (Saturday)
Gear up for another awesome weekend of college football action with BettingPros! We’ll have you covered with all of our top picks for the week along with our projected spreads and totals to help guide your college football bets. Below are our top picks and predictions for Saturday’s games.
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Top College Football Odds & Picks
USC vs. Arizona State
The Trojans are once on a great run for a National Championship, thanks to the offense that leads the nation scoring 59.3 points per game. Caleb Williams will likely be in New York City in December, and according to most oddsmakers, he is favored to be just the second person to win the Heisman twice. The Arizona State season is not going well, as they’ve dropped back-to-back games to Oklahoma State and Fresno State. True freshman four-star recruit Jaden Rashada was out last week and will miss some time with an injury. Trenton Bourguet started last week but was knocked with an injury, then Drew Pyne came in but also left with an injury, with fourth-string QB Jacob Conover finishing the game. Bourget is doubtful, and it looks like Pyne could get the start, if you remember his time at Notre Dame, he doesn’t provide much confidence. As we saw against Stanford, the Trojans have no problem running up the score, and this game could get ugly quickly.
Pick: USC -34.5 (-110)
-John Supowitz
UCLA vs. Utah
UCLA has picked up some excellent wins against Coastal Carolina and San Diego State, and FCS program North Carolina Central to go from unranked to No. 22. True freshman five-star quarterback Dante Moore has been excellent in his role with the 12th-best QBR, but since he’s averaging just 17 passes per game, we haven’t seen all the aspects of his game. That hasn’t been necessary with the running back tandem of TJ Harden and Carson Steele. They’ve both been able to move the ball, with Harden averaging 8.4 yards per carry and Steele with 6.4. The PAC-12 champs have played well without their third-year starting quarterback Cam Rising. If he can’t go this week, it will likely be Nate Johnson again at quarterback, as he took all the pass attempts for the first time this season. He’s definitely not as efficient of a passer as Rising, but he can get positive yards with his legs. Both defenses have played to begin the season, and that will be the key. I think the Bruins can grind it out enough to keep this game close.
Pick: UCLA +6 (-110)
-John Supowitz
Oregon State vs. Washington State
The lone remnants in the future PAC-12 face off in what should be a really great matchup between two undefeated teams as the Beavers travel to Pullman to take on the Cougars. Both teams have won each of their first 3 games by at least one possession, with the Cougars having the most impressive win at home against Wisconsin. Cam Ward seems to have taken a massive leap since jumping to the FBS last season, as he’s already thrown for nearly 1,000 yards with a 9/0 TD-to-INT ratio. DJ Uiagalelei also seems to be more comfortable in his new home this season, which can likely be attributed to a really strong Beavers rushing attack that has been the team’s forte under HC Jonathan Smith. The Beavers are averaging 6.3 YPC this season, with RB Damien Martinez leading the way with an insanely efficient 8.8 YPC on 40 attempts. I don’t feel comfortable enough to recommend a side either way, but I do think we should see some offensive fireworks between an OSU squad that’s averaging 41 PPG and a WSU offense that’s averaging 48 PPG. These offenses go about their business in different but extremely efficient ways, so I’ll take the over.
Pick: Over 58 (-110)
-Austin MacMillan
Oklahoma vs. Cincinnati
Oklahoma has been a juggernaut on offense this year, scoring 55.7 points per game. They’ll take on Cincinnati in what will be the Bearcats’ first Big 12 game. After an upset at Pitt in Week 2, the Bearcats lost against Miami (OH) in overtime. The weather forecast is calling for rain, so this could get sloppy. If the passing games are limited, that could play well into the Oklahoma defensive strength. The Sooners have produced a stout run defense, allowing just 80 yards per game. This is Cincinnati’s strength on offense, but their passing game isn’t strong enough to keep the Sooners on their toes. Oklahoma is the better side here, but with a large spread and rain in the forecast, I’m targeting the under.
Pick: Under 57.5 (-120)
-Ryan Rodeman
Rutgers vs. Michigan
Jim Harbaugh returns after his three-game suspension. The Wolverines didn’t miss him too much as they handled their three opponents with relative ease. Rutgers will pose a new threat that the former teams haven’t, namely Power 5 players. Rutgers has thrived on the ground in their offense, averaging 210.7 rush yards per game. This has equated to 61% of their offensive production even when accounting for sacks. They’ll likely try to do what they’ve done best, but they likely won’t have much success against an elite Michigan front seven. The Wolverines are one of the best run defenses in the country and last year they held Rutgers to 14 yards on 19 attempts. For Michigan’s offense, they haven’t shown much this season and if they get up a few scores in the first half we could see them bleed out the clock again. It’s been driven down as Michigan has gone under in each game this season, but this is another perfect spot to take the under.
Pick: Under 44.5 (-110)
-Ryan Rodeman
Florida State vs. Clemson
An epic slate of games begins with a crucial ACC clash. Florida State has been one of the nation’s darlings in this early season, but they nearly got tripped up by the massive lookahead spot last week against Boston College. Meanwhile, this game could define the future of Clemson’s program, as the Tigers need a statement win after losing their season opener to Duke in embarrassing fashion. The spread feels about right to me, but I get squeamish backing either side. I do like a play on the over in this game. The Florida State defense has some holes, particularly against the pass. The Seminoles are allowing 268 passing yards per game, and I’m confident Clemson QB Cade Klubnik can take advantage. And I’m not worried about this loaded FSU offense keeping up in a shootout. It also helps that Clemson plays at a pretty quick pace under new coordinator Kendal Briles. I’m expecting the scoreboard to stay busy in our first marquee game of the weekend.
Pick: Over 55 (-110)
-Matt Barbato
Auburn vs. Texas A&M
We’re entering Week 4 of the season, and we know almost nothing about either one of these teams. The Tigers have beaten up on weak opponents, while barely surviving a scare at Cal. Meanwhile, the Aggies have followed a similar path, but they failed to survive their scare against the Miami Hurricanes. Each of these teams is averaging over 400 yards per game, while allowing less than 300. Yet, for all the confusion we see on paper, the one thing that is clear is the Aggies have a huge advantage at quarterback. Connor Weigman has eight touchdown passes and just two interceptions, while Payton Thorne has been much less productive throwing the football for the Tigers. If this game comes down to quarterback play, which we think it will since neither team has much of a rushing attack, then there really is no way that the Aggies lose. With them being favored by 7.5 at the moment, it feels as though oddsmakers are trying to bait bettors into taking the Tigers. Don’t fall for it. Take the Aggies as they cover comfortably at home.
Pick: Texas A&M -7.5 (-110)
-Phil Wood
Virginia Tech vs. Marshall
The Hokies are off to a rocky start under 2nd year HC Brent Pry, fresh off of two losses to Big 10 foes Purdue and Rutgers. Virginia Tech really struggled on the offensive side of the football in those affairs, failing to eclipse 17 points in either matchup. They also could be without the services of former Marshall QB Grant Wells, who is questionable to play at this time. Even in the game that he was healthy against Purdue, he tossed 2 INTs and completed less than 50% of his passes, so his status isn’t really a factor here. Defense has been the calling card of the Thundering Herd in recent years and this year appears to be no different, as Marshall has surrendered only 15 PPG in their first two matchups and racked up 2 INTs in their most recent game against East Carolina. I don’t foresee Virginia Tech having any sort of success against Marshall’s defense, and I actually think it could get even uglier for the Hokies if Wells does end up playing. Lay the points with the home favorite in Marshall.
Pick: Marshall -4.5 (-110)
-Austin MacMillan
SMU vs. TCU
After their season-opening 45-42 loss to the Colorado Buffaloes, TCU easily won two games over Nicholls and Houston. But they’re about to face a very good defense that is going to give them trouble all day. SMU is 2-1, but their only loss is to Oklahoma, a team that managed just 28 points against them. To put that in perspective, the Sooners have scored 139 points in their other two games. The Mustangs’ defense will be enough for them to win this game, but they also have an offense that features two good running backs and Preston Stone, a solid quarterback who has looked good in all three of his games this season. The TCU rush defense is only allowing 60.7 yards per game, but they haven’t been tested, as they have faced nothing but passing teams this season. For the Mustangs, slowing down running back Emani Bailey will be no easy task, but they are only allowing 103.7 yards rushing per game. This will be a tight contest, but SMU is the better all-around team. Even though this is being played in Fort Worth, you have to go with the underdog to cover in a game they very well could win.
Pick: SMU +6.5 (-110)
-Phil Wood
Ole Miss vs. Alabama
Doubting Nick Saban’s program is not an advisable business strategy. But we just might have to admit that Alabama simply isn’t that good as previous years. It feels like the Alabama allure is still giving this program more value. But Alabama ranks 58th in rushing offense and 101st in passing. Sure, Jalen Milroe is back at quarterback. But he’s extremely limited outside of his great mobility and deep ball. And unlike prior Bama teams that overcame mediocre QB play, this version doesn’t have the dynamic playmakers to support Milroe. Ultimately, I believe Jaxson Dart and the Rebels can have success against a Crimson Tide defense that’s good, but not invincible. And while the Ole Miss defense is far from an elite unit, I don’t believe Milroe can do enough to expose it. Alabama may win ultimately, but I like Ole Miss at a touchdown.
Pick: Ole Miss +7 (-110)
-Matt Barbato
Colorado vs. Oregon
The Colorado Buffaloes have been the most exciting story in sports. But they’ve got an uphill battle against No. 10 Oregon on Saturday. Oregon has added over 585 yards of offense per game through the season’s first three games. While the schedule hasn’t been super appealing, going on the road against Texas Tech wasn’t an easy game for Oregon. Yet, they found a way to win that one. Bo Nix has thrown for 893 yards and eight touchdowns without an interception, while Bucky Irving has rushed for 216 yards on 27 carries. The defense is also terrific, especially in the secondary. That’s big news because the Buffaloes will want to throw the ball a lot with Shedeur Sanders. Sanders has thrown for 418 yards per game this season. However, the running game has added only 61 yards on the ground. If Oregon’s coverage is top-tier, it’ll be hard for the Buffaloes to score. Still, the Oregon pass rush hasn’t been super effective. If Sanders has time in the pocket, he’ll make plays. This should be a fun matchup. But Colorado as a 21-point underdog is too much.
Pick: Colorado +21 (-110)
-Jason Radowitz
Maryland vs. Michigan State
It hasn’t been an excellent start to the season for Michigan State. They’re 2-1 but no longer have Mel Tucker as head coach. The whole team has trended in a bad direction, especially after a 41-7 loss to Washington last weekend. The Spartans have added 377.3 yards per game on offense. But that likely won’t be enough against a Maryland team that has added 480 yards per game on offense. Taulia Tagovailoa had the chance to go anywhere in the country pretty much. But he chose to stay with Maryland. The younger brother of Tua has added 889 yards passing and five touchdowns to two interceptions. Meanwhile, the run game has dominated behind Roman Hembry, who has four touchdowns on 6.1 yards per carry this season. On the other hand, don’t expect much offense from Michigan State. They’ve added 707 yards passing in three games, led by Noah Kim. However, the pass protection has been average, and the receivers on the team are mid. Plus, Maryland’s secondary is elite. I’ll take Maryland.
Pick: Maryland -7.5 (-110)
-Jason Radowitz
BYU vs. Kansas
The BYU Cougars added a massive road win against Arkansas last weekend, earning a 38-31 win. It doesn’t get any easier with Kansas up next. The Kansas Jayhawks have earned over 500 yards of offense, including over 215 yards on the ground per game. They’ve already defeated Illinois and Nevada, two solid wins this season. Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels has thrown for 578 yards and has a QBR of 79.2, the 22nd-best in college football. Meanwhile, Devin Neal has rushed for 7.6 yards per carry on 40 carries. He’s also added five touchdowns and already has over 300 yards rushing. BYU’s offense likely won’t hang around against Kansas. They’ve added only 310.7 yards per game on offense. However, the defense has dominated against the run and continues to convert tackles. With Kansas dominating against the pass and BYU playing great against the run, I’ll take the Under 54.5 in this game.
Pick: Under 54.5 (-110)
-Jason Radowitz
Arkansas vs. LSU
The Arkansas Razorbacks lost a non-conference home game to the BYU Cougars last weekend. That’s just another lousy loss for Arkansas. The defense has only allowed 257.3 yards per game this season, including 55.7 yards on the ground. But BYU took advantage of the 14 penalties by Arkansas last weekend. On the other hand, LSU just earned a 41-14 win over Mississippi State on the road. The offense was lights out behind Jaylen Daniels, who completed 88% of his passes for over 300 yards. The defense also stepped up against the run and had 11 straight plays where they held Mississippi State to no yards or negative yards on the road. LSU has all the momentum heading into this matchup. After Alabama looked terrible against South Florida, LSU might, again, be the best team in the SEC West. Take LSU against the spread.
Pick: LSU -17.5 (-110)
-Jason Radowitz
UAB vs. Georgia
The Bulldogs keep moving as they come in with a 19-game winning streak. It does not matter if the lineups continue to change, Kirby Smart continues to rebuild and put a National Championship-caliber team on the field. UAB is having a tough start to the season, as they’ve already gone down to Georgia Southern and Louisiana. Quarterback Jacob Zeno has been great this year with an 84.6% completion rate, but they are missing the ground game left vacant by NFL Draftee DeWayne McBride, and they’ve been unable to establish the run all season. The Blazers’ offensive line has also been inefficient all season, and now they’ll try to contain a Georgia defensive line filled with guys who will play on Sundays. Pencil in the Bulldogs for another win, but I like this game to go under.
Pick: Under 55 (-110)
-John Supowitz
Texas vs. Baylor
Texas had the biggest win of Steve Sarkisian era with a victory over Alabama, but that almost went to waste as last week they allowed Wyoming to stay competitive up until a 21-point outburst in the fourth quarter, and the Cowboys covered the spread. They went to running back Jonathan Brooks to move to the ball, and Quinn Ewers had a big third-down run late. It’s been downhill for the 2021 Big 12 champion Baylor the last couple of years, and they already have a loss to a mid-major in Texas State. Blake Shapen will miss his third-straight game with an injury, and it will be Sawyer Robertson under center again. While he was excellent against Long Island last week, he struggled against Utah, which included a late interception that allowed the Utes to get the winning touchdown. I think we could have predicted Wyoming to be a potential trap game, but the Longhorns won’t come in like that playing against an in-state rival.
Pick: Texas -14.5 (-110)
-John Supowitz
Iowa vs. Penn State
The Hawkeyes and Nittany Lions have played a lot of classics in the past decade. Even as Kirk Ferentz’s teams have scored to struggle, they’ve found ways to give Penn State fits on offense. Penn State may have found a gem in QB Drew Allar. He’s had a few solid outings and has thus far avoided turnovers, but this Iowa defense is unlike any other team he’s played. This will be Penn State’s famous White Out game. The pressure and the bright lights could spook the young quarterback and the Iowa defense that has 17 interceptions in their last 16 games will be ready to pounce. Penn State is the better team and at home, but this line of over two touchdowns is just too much. Iowa will find ways to stay in this game and cover this large spread.
Pick: Iowa +14.5 (-110)
-Ryan Rodeman
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame
This should be the perfect nightcap for an incredible lineup of games on Saturday. These are two of the most high-profile programs in the country and if this season’s results mean anything, it will be one of the best matchups of the year. There were a lot of questions about both of these offenses headed into the season and we’ve started to get some answers. QB Sam Hartman has been outstanding after transferring to Notre Dame from Wake Forest. In four games, he’s averaged 11.8 yards per attempt with a 13 to 0 TD-to-INT ratio. Ohio State will be the toughest test he’s faced, but he’s also the toughest test the Buckeyes have faced since giving up 30, 45 and 42 to end the year against Maryland, Michigan and Georgia at the end of last year. For Ohio State, the first two weeks were dicey on offense. QB Kyle McCord finally broke out for 318 yards and 3 TDs against Western Kentucky. This game screams one of those high-profile matchups that turns into a big-time track meet. I’ll be targeting the over and rooting for every score.
Pick: Over 55.5 (-110)
-Ryan Rodeman
California vs. Washington
I get it if nobody wants to bet against this Washington team. It’s been an absolute wagon through the start of the year. But Cal has been a scrappy underdog in this situation under coach Justin Wilcox, and the Golden Bears have enough to keep this game within three scores. The Golden Bears defense is vastly improved and ranks 35th in pass defense. That’s pivotal against Michael Penix and an elite Huskies passing game that’s averaging nearly 500 passing yards per game. Plus, Cal has an interesting quarterback tandem in Ben Finley and Sam Jackson V that will be tough to gameplan against, as Finley is the pocket passer while Jackson is the mobile option. Washington won’t drop this game at home, but don’t be surprised if Cal hangs around.
Pick: Cal +20.5 (-110)
-Matt Barbato
Best Ways to Bet College Football for Beginners
Game Total
Bettors new to the hobby can be confused by spreads, but game totals are simple. Every football game has a total posted for the combined final score between the two teams. Bettors have the option to choose the OVER or UNDER, generally at -110 odds (risk: $110; win: $100). So if the total is 42 and you take the OVER, you need 43 points to win the bet. If you put a bet down on the over to win $100 and it goes over, you get back the money you initially risked, plus $100. If it stayed under, you would have lost your $110 and that’s it. If by chance the game ended with 42 total points, it’s called a push; when a game pushes, you get the money you risked back but nothing more.
ie: California vs. Illinois, Over 42 or Under 42
tip: Over bets can be a really fun social event with your buddies. Have everyone throw in a few bucks, then take the over together. Instead of getting pumped when one side scores, everyone is pumped for ANY score, all game.
Moneyline
The moneyline is the easiest way to test your college football knowledge: who will win the game? That’s it. The moneyline doesn’t use favorites or underdogs, it’s totally straight up. That said, the risk-reward can be challenging because they’re weighted. Instead of every game being around -110, like game totals and spreads, moneylines vary depending on the matchup.
For our example, California was favored by seven points over Illinois, meaning oddsmakers think the Golden Bears are a touchdown better than the Fighting Illini. If you took Cal on the moneyline, points don’t matter, they just need to win the game. But because it’s safer to take them straight-up without points, you’ll have to risk more when you make the bet — remember, they’re seven points better than Illinois in the eyes of the oddsmakers. In this case, Cal is -280 on the moneyline, so if you want to win $100, you have to risk $280. On the flip side, moneyline bets can be valuable when taking the underdog because it’s a riskier bet — they’re seven points worse than their opponent. In this case, Illinois is the underdog — +220 on the moneyline. You’d win $220 on a $100 bet if you picked Illinois on the moneyline and they pulled off the upset.
ie: California (ML -280) vs. Illinois (ML +220)
tip: Check their history against one another. Keep an eye on the injury report and the weather.
Player Props
Player props are some of the most exhilarating bets you can place during a college football game, but they’re also easy to understand. For major conferences, you’ll have a wide array of options to choose from. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, and sometimes tight ends will have props to choose from. It’s simple, fun and easy to follow, and odds on player props don’t vary as much as moneylines. Generally, prop bets are in the -110 range like generic spread and total bets.
ie: How many passing yards will Brandon Peters have against California? Over 250 or Under 250
tip: Check how players have performed in the situation they’re going to be in. Use split stats on any reliable site to see their numbers at home, on a neutral-site, in December, etc.
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