College Football Week 4 Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Under-the-Radar Plays (2022)
It was a weird week for our Week 3 under-the-radar plays. Both of our underdogs covered, with Bowling Green shockingly upsetting Marshall straight up. However, we finished 2-2 thanks to Wisconsin turning their matchup with New Mexico State into a showcase to flex their muscles (hopefully Ohio State gives them a taste of that this weekend), while Georgia State let us down… again.
Let’s see if we can get back to above .500 in Week 4. This week features a handful of matchups involving unranked Power Five teams.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings SportsBook)
Check out Thor Nystrom's Week 4 College Football Power Rankings >>
2022 season record: 5-3-2
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -2.5 at Georgia State Panthers, Total 62
Kickoff: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
I’m sorry. I know we’re now 0-2-1 betting on Georgia State. And I know the Panthers lost straight up to Charlotte as 20-point favorites. And if you want to just skip this pick and move on, I get it.
But isn’t it just a little fishy that the 0-3 Panthers are getting less than a field goal against the undefeated Chants? There are a couple of reasons why.
Despite its unblemished record, Coastal Carolina isn’t as strong of a team as it was last season. NFL quarterback prospect Grayson McCall is back under center. But only three other starters returned on offense, with just a trio returning on the other side of the ball too.
I’m giving quarterback Darren Grainger one last chance against a Chanticleers defense that’s given up 289.3 passing yards per game to Army, Gardner-Webb and Buffalo.
Georgia State started last year 1-4 before winning six of seven down the stretch. I hope they’ll turn the corner a little earlier than last year. I’m also willing to believe there’s a reason why this spread is suspiciously short. Let’s try it again!
The pick: Georgia State +2.5 (-110)
TCU Horned Frogs -2 at SMU Mustangs, Total 70.5
Kickoff: Saturday, noon ET
The main story of this rivalry game will be Sonny Dykes’ return to SMU, where he helped put the program back on the map. And while all eyes might be on the offenses in this game, TCU’s defense deserves the attention.
Led by defensive coordinator Joseph Gillespie, the Horned Frogs’ defense ranks 35th against the run and 73rd against the pass while giving up just 30 points in wins over Colorado and Tarleton State. SMU can certainly score, as they’ve put up 40+ against North Texas and Lamar. Last week, SMU put up 520 yards against Maryland but converted them into just 27 points due to three turnovers. The Terrapins averaged 9.3 yards per pass and nearly six yards per rush.
The Horned Frogs have quickly embraced Dykes’ offensive system, and quarterback Max Duggan threw for 390 yards and five touchdowns in their win over Tarleton State. And TCU’s 19th-ranked running game should have no trouble against SMU, allowing 177 yards per game on the ground.
TCU should have no issues moving the ball and benefit from an extra week of preparation. Bet the Horned Frogs to get the job done.
The pick: TCU Moneyline (-125)
Indiana Hoosiers at Cincinnati Bearcats -17, Total 56.5
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 ET
We faded the Hoosiers last week, and it worked, as Indiana needed overtime to beat Western Kentucky last week.
Now Indiana travels to Cincinnati for a rematch with the Bearcats. The Hoosiers have been significantly out-gained in two of their three games against Illinois and Western Kentucky. And IU was losing 10-0 to Idaho at halftime a couple of weeks ago.
The Connor Bazelak experiment hasn’t fared very well, as the Missouri transfer QB has completed just 56% of his passes for five touchdowns and two interceptions. Again, this is against Illinois, Idaho and Western Kentucky. And Bazelak’s struggles could continue against a Bearcats defense allowing 150 passing yards per game.
Offensively, the Bearcats also hold a considerable advantage. Quarterback Ben Bryant has done a good job replacing Desmond Ridder, throwing for 863 yards, seven touchdowns and two picks while completing 70% of his throws. The Bearcats rank 16th nationally in passing offense, while Indiana ranks 93rd against the pass.
This isn’t last year’s Cincinnati team. But it gave a strong Arkansas team everything it could handle on the road. The Bearcats should roll.
The pick: Cincinnati -17 (-110)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar Heels -2, Total 56.5
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 ET
This is a true strength-on-strength and weakness-on-weakness battle. The Tar Heels boast the sixth-highest scoring offense in the nation at 51.7 points per game. The Fighting Irish have been stout defensively, allowing just 21.3 points per game.
On the other side, Notre Dame’s offense has struggled mightily this year, averaging just 18.3 points per game and ranking outside the top 100 in both rushing and passing offense. The Tar Heels can’t stop a nosebleed, however. UNC is giving up 37.7 points per game against three non-Power Five conference foes, ranking 111th and 112th in rushing and passing offense, respectively.
The key to this game will be whether Notre Dame quarterback Drew Pyne can take advantage of North Carolina’s generous defense. Since taking over for Tyler Buchner two weeks ago against Marshall, Pyne has completed 69% of his passes for 170 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. Pyne’s been the steadier passer, but he doesn’t offer the same rushing upside as Buchner.
Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye could be the next up-and-coming quarterback, as the freshman has completed 74% of his throws for 930 yards, 11 touchdowns and only one pick. The Irish secondary will be the toughest test of his young career. However, UNC’s 13th-ranked rushing offense should find room to run against an Irish front seven, yielding 167 yards per game on the ground.
North Carolina is coming off a bye, while Notre Dame had to survive against Cal last week. I’m willing to bet on North Carolina’s defense getting more stops against this weak Irish offense led by Pyne.
The pick: North Carolina Moneyline (-125)
Arizona Wildcats at Cal Golden Bears -3, Total 50.5
Kickoff: Saturday, 5:30 ET
We conclude with some PAC-12 after… noon? This isn’t exactly the marquee matchup in the conference, but it’s interesting nonetheless. This line initially opened at Cal -5 before dropping to its current landing spot earlier in the week.
The Wildcats are morphing into a respectable PAC-12 foe in coach Jedd Fisch’s second year. Arizona sits at 2-1 with a loss to Mississippi State. And a 3-point win over an FCS power like North Dakota State is nothing to sneeze at, as North Dakota State has picked off its fair share of FBS opponents.
Quarterback Jayden de Laura, who transferred in from Washington State, now leads Arizona. With de Laura at the helm, Arizona has improved to 40th in passing offense and is averaging 28.7 points per game.
Defensively, the Wildcats are still a work in progress, as they’re giving up 29 points per game, but they rank 18th nationally against the pass.
Cal is Cal. And by that, I mean they play stingy defense under coach Justin Fuente but hardly have a pulse on offense. The Golden Bears are averaging 23.7 points per game thus far, with two wins against UC-Davis, UNLV (by six) and a loss to Notre Dame. Purdue transfer QB Jack Plummer has struggled to ignite a unit that brought back just three returning starters.
The way to beat Arizona is by running the ball, but Cal might struggle to exploit that weakness. The Golden Bears are averaging just 113 rushing yards per game.
This feels like an opportunity for Arizona to make a statement to open conference play. The Wildcats might just be the better team, and they’re getting points. Plus, Fuente is 3-11-1 as a home favorite during his Cal tenure.
The pick: Arizona +3 (-110)
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