College Football Week 4 Odds & Picks: Sleepers & Longshots
As we enter Week 4 of the College Football season, finding potential longshot winners will become more challenging but not impossible. Some teams have yet to show their true colors because they’ve played soft schedules, and as a result, they’ve looked better than they are.
Those teams are ripe for an upset, which would be a nice payday for those willing to roll the dice and bet on a longshot.
The following are games where the underdog has a reasonable chance of winning. Are they longshots? There isn’t a set definition, but we’ve targeted games where the spread is close to a touchdown, if not more.
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College Football Week 4 Longshot Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Michigan State (+188) vs. Boston College (-6.5)
Both teams are off to solid starts; the Spartans are undefeated at 3-0, while the Eagles are 2-1 after a heartbreaking loss to Missouri last week. While the spread is under a touchdown for this game, we expect it to be a much better fight than the spread would indicate.
On the offensive side of the ball, both teams look good. Thomas Castellanos has been a bit more productive than Aidan Chiles, scoring nine touchdowns to four. Michigan State is averaging more yards per game (249 to 204.7), but the BC passing attack is one of the more efficient in the country (No. 4).
Both offenses average around 400 yards per game, including their run games. However, the Eagles average a touchdown more (35 ppg) than the Spartans (27.7 ppg).
However, what could turn the tide in the Spartans’ favor is their defense. Michigan State has one of the best ones in the country (No. 16 total yards and No. 23 scoring). They’ve been tough to run on (78.3 ypg allowed) and throw on (164 ypg allowed).
BC’s defense is pretty stout, which makes us think this will be a low-scoring game. From how both teams have played, we like Michigan State’s big play potential more than Boston College’s. They’ll pull ahead and win the game when they get one or two of those late in the fourth quarter. Take the Spartans ML.
Pick: Michigan State ML (+188)
Georgia Tech (+270) vs. #19 Louisville (-10.5)
Louisville (2-0) looks like a fabulous team on paper. They’re averaging nearly 600 yards per game, scoring 50+ and allowing just two touchdowns this season. Although they were not ranked in the top 25 to start the season, they are the No. 19 team in the AP Poll heading into this weekend.
Expectations were high for them entering the season, so their success is unsurprising. However, they have yet to play even a remotely challenging opponent, crushing Austin Peay 62-0 and beating Jacksonville State 49-14.
Georgia Tech (3-1) is a bit more battle-tested, beating Florida State in the opener, 24-21. Their one loss came against a surprisingly good Syracuse team. So, while they don’t look as good on paper, they’ve played actual competition, unlike Louisville.
That is not to say Louisville is not as good as they’ve looked. But Georgia Tech is better than they’re getting credit for. The Yellow Jackets could absolutely win this game.
Take the GT moneyline.
Pick: Georgia Tech ML (+270)
Cal (+108) vs. Florida State (-2.5)
This game is not as much of a longshot, with just a 2.5-point spread, but it is noteworthy because it might be the most shocking spread of the season to date. Florida State is 0-3 and getting subpar play from quarterback DJ Uiagalelei. Their run game is almost non-existent, and their defense is not impressive.
On the other hand, Cal is 3-0 (vs. UC Davis, Auburn and San Diego State) and getting solid play from quarterback Fernando Mendoza. Plus, they have a decent run game. They’re giving up only 12 ppg and holding opponents to 288 yards of total offense. There is a lot to like about Cal, but you can’t say the same about FSU.
Take Cal to win while you can still find them with a plus-money moneyline.
Pick: Cal ML (+108)