College Football Week 4 Picks & Predictions: Bogman’s Best Bets

by Scott Bogman |
Sep 21, 2023

In what seems like no time, weâ€™re already a month into the College Football season. Weâ€™ve seen upsets, nailbiters and more blowouts than we can count. Itâ€™s Week 4 and time to fire on some Unders! Iâ€™m not usually the biggest on Unders, but there are a lot to like this week, and Iâ€™m running to them!

Here are my best bets for College Football Week 4.

College Football Week 4 Picks & Predictions

Week 3 Record: 5-5 | 2023 Record: 14-16 | Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

NC State @ Virginia

NC State hasnâ€™t looked quite like we wanted them to yet, but I think this is the week they turn it on. Brennan Armstrong followed his OC Robert Anae from Virginia, and they will want to put up big numbers this week. The magic hasnâ€™t been there yet for Armstrong, who put up nearly 4,500 yards and 40 TDs (31 passing, nine rushing) in 2021 for the Cavaliers.

NC State isnâ€™t killing it on offense (61st in scoring, 31 PPG), but Virginia has been abysmal on defense. UVA is allowing 42.3 PPG so far, good enough to put them at 129th in the nation. Virginia allows 191 rushing yards per game (120th) and just over 260 yards passing (106th). By PFFs metrics, UVA is bottom five in overall defense, dead last in rushing and in the 80s in coverage. No matter how itâ€™s cut, Virginia is rough on defense.

UVA isnâ€™t saying which QB will start on Friday, but itâ€™s either starter Tony Muskett, at likely less than 100%, or Anthony Colandrea, who has been hit or miss. NC State is middling on defense, but UVA is almost as bad on offense as they are on defense, rating 108th in scoring (20.7 PPG), 128th in rushing (68 YPG) and 58th in passing (248.7 YPG). Iâ€™m threading the needle a bit here, but with NC State not hitting its stride, we can hit the spread and keep the under.

Bet: NC State -9.5 (-112) & UNDER 48 (-110)

FAU @ Illinois

A couple of weeks ago, I took FAU minus the points and had the unfortunate consequence of watching their entire game and seeing how miserable the offense looked. Casey Thompson, who I watched a lot at Texas, had one of his most miserable games with a completion percentage of just over 50%, no TDs and two INTs against Ohio. Thompson didnâ€™t get it together against Clemson and was benched for Daniel Richardson, who is expected to start this week.

FAU isnâ€™t great on defense, but Illinois has been struggling offensively. The Illini are 104th in scoring (22 PPG), and they havenâ€™t found it on the ground yet at only 101st (122.67 YPG). Starting QB Luke Altmyer hasnâ€™t been bad in terms of completion percentage but he only has three TDs to seven INTs through the first three games of the season. FAU could be in a spot to get going, but if the Illini control the pace of this game as they should, they will bleed the clock, as they are 80th in pace, averaging only 67 plays per game.

We have an Illinois offense that hasnâ€™t gotten going after losing RB Chase Brown to the NFL and a backup QB in his first start of the season with FAU. Iâ€™m going to hope the mistakes donâ€™t cost points in this game, and we see a nice boring punt-fest. Give me the Under!

Bet: UNDER 45.5 (-110)

California @ #8 Washington

Usually, I enjoy the saying, â€˜Lifeâ€™s too short to bet Unders, but this week, Iâ€™m all over them! Yes, Washington is incredible on offense, and Michael Penix Jr. is lighting up the scoreboard, with the Huskies boasting a top-eight scoring offense in the country (46.7 PPG). However, California hasnâ€™t let anyone score more than 21 points between their three opponents, North Texas, Auburn and Idaho. Cal has a top-35 pass and run defense in terms of yards per game and is also ranked as a top-20 defense by PFFs metrics.

Washington may be getting attention from their incredible offense, but they also havenâ€™t allowed anyone to score more than 19 points on them this season. Teams are moving the ball a bit on Washington and havenâ€™t been scoring, but the biggest factor to me will be the time of possession. California is second in pace this season and also top 12 in TOP this season, but as three-TD underdogs, I highly doubt they control the ball more than Washington.

The Huskies are only top 40 in TOP this season, but last week against Michigan State, their first P5 opponent this season, they held the ball for 35:32. Only two teams average more than 35 and change in TOP (Rice and Air Force). The reason this is important is that Washington slows the game down and only averages 67 plays per game, which is 99th in the Country. Washingtonâ€™s last two games have played to the Under, and I expect this one to go the same way. Make it three in a row for Washington Unders!

Bet: UNDER 60.5 (-110)

Kentucky @ Vanderbilt

This one is just a different level of talent. Kentucky has only allowed 11.3 PPG and no opponent over 17 points. Vanderbilt has played four games because they had the Week 0 game against Hawaii, and they have put up some points, averaging just under 35 PPG. Vandy hasnâ€™t played anyone tough yet, and they just lost to UNLV and gave up points doing it.

The defense for Vandy has been OK, but giving up 37 to UNLV is a tough look. They also have a couple of injuries in the secondary in Jaylen Mahoney and Deâ€™Rickey Wright, who are both questionable. Kentucky has been pretty solid at passing the ball, ranking 31st in passing offense. Devin Leary is 20th in YPG and ranks as a top-35 QB by PPFâ€™s metrics. I expect him to have a nice game here.

The kicker here is that Vanderbilt beat Kentucky for the first time since 2015 last year, and they arenâ€™t sneaking up on the Wildcats this year. Kentuckyâ€™s ability to pass, especially with the injuries in the secondary, coupled with a defense that has been dominant so far, is too much for Vandy to overcome. Give me the Cats big!

Bet: Kentucky -13.5 (-110)

Other Bets I Like:

Rice -2.5 @ USF (-110)
Arizona -11.5 @ Stanford (-110)
#24 Iowa @ #7 Penn State UNDER 40 (-110)
Mississippi State @ South Carolina OVER 48.5 (-110)
BYU +8.5 @ Kansas (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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