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Top College Football Week 4 Picks & Predictions (2024)

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College football betting expert Scott Bogman will provide his top picks and predictions for each and every week of CFB action. Let’s get ready for this weekend’s games with Bogman’s best college football bets for Week 4. Check out all of his top picks and predictions below.

College Football Week 4 Picks & Predictions

Illinois vs. Nebraska (Friday)

Nebraska has been dominant this season, are playing at home but the public is split on this game because Illinois can't be ignored. Illinois has forced 9 turnovers and made Kansas QB Jalon Daniels look terrible with 3 INTs and a fumble. Nebraska QB Dylan Raiola has only 1 INT in his Freshman campaign but the plan should be to run the ball (Illinois PFF Defensive Grades – 101st RDef, 15th in Pass Rush, 31st in Coverage). Illinois QB Luke Altmyer has improved but has not run the ball well, and we saw Nebraska's defense clamp Colorado's one-dimensional offense. Illinois isn't as imbalanced as Colorado offensively but the strength of the Nebraska defense coupled with what should be a conservative approach on offense suggests a tighter game and our system reflects that.

Pick: Illinois +8

Miami vs. South Florida

USF stood until the 4th quarter against Alabama two weeks ago and did by putting Milroe under pressure on 12 dropbacks, sacking him three times and knocking him down as the ball came out two more times. Milroe's Passing Grade drops significantly under pressure but, Cam Ward's doesn't. Ward's Grade under pressure (78.1) is almost as good as Milroe in a clean pocket (82.8). Miami's WRs and RB positions are graded as and have performed as Top-10 units this season. Miami is also Top-15 in scoring, passing and rushing defense and grade #2 defensively according to PFF. Miami should score early, force USF to pass to catch up and add to their second-highest sack total (12) in the country and take care of business quickly.

Pick: Miami -16.5

Arkansas State vs. Iowa State

Arkansas State has been incredibly inefficient on offense for a 2-1 team, 85th in scoring offense despite a pass-heavy scheme (63.6%). The Arkansas State targets have had 7 drops with 1 contested catch in 14 chances. The run game is almost nonexistent, as they only run the ball on 36.4% of plays and rank 104th in YPG. The Michigan game hurts the small sample size, but the 18 points they scored against Michigan is more than their last three games against P4 opponents (0 vs. OU 2023, 12 vs Ohio State 2022, 3 vs Washington 2021). Iowa State is coming off a Bye, and Arkansas State is the weakest opponent they'll have faced after edging out Iowa and beating a Top-10 FCS team in North Dakota. Iowa State has played well defensively so far, holding their opponents to 22 total points. However, the offense hasn't looked great, only averaging 20.5 PPG (109th), but they have faced the two strong opponents and the Arkansas State defense is middling for the Sun Belt and the weakest the Cyclones will have faced. Iowa State should bottle up the Arkansas State offense and with their own offense not clicking on all cylinders yet the Under is a solid play.

Pick: UNDER 51.5

Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech

These are two HEAVY rush offenses, with Va Tech at 53.6% and Rutgers at 62.9%. In 2023, these offenses both returned a lot from the previous season, and both also ran at a similar percentage. These teams currently combine to be 3-2 to the Over this season and were 15-10 toward the Over in 2023. The run defense on both sides of this matchup has been bad, with Rutgers checking in at 86th (150.5 YPG) and Va Tech at 114th (190.3 YPG). Virginia Tech RB Bhayshul Tuten has been limited in practice for the Hokies, but Malachi Thomas has experience, with over 200 rush attempts and 25 receptions. This would be a look-ahead spot for Virginia Tech as the favorite if Rutgers hadn't beaten them 35-16 last season, which went well over this total. Wait on this Under if you want to play it as the line has already dropped 2 points during the week.

Pick: OVER 44.5

Arizona State vs. Texas Tech

Texas Tech has been rough on defense so far in 2024, but the offense has been outstanding. Texas Tech is 123rd in Scoring Defense, 119th in Passing defense, and 108th in rushing defense. Per PFF, Tech is 130/134 in Overall Defensive grade, 93rd in Run defense grade, 131st in Tackle Grade, and 132nd in Coverage Grade. Arizona State has produced offensively in its first three games (SOS 23rd), averaging 36.3 points and at least 30 in each game. Arizona State has been solid against the run (11th – 65.3 YPG) but below average against the pass and grade a little worse than that. Arizona State's offense should keep the ball moving on the ground as much as they please, and they will likely have issues slowing down the Texas Tech passing game, which will help to push toward this over. This game will need to get a little closer to kickoff to lock it in, as there currently is a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms in the forecast for Lubbock.

Pick: OVER 59.5

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