College Football Week 4 Player Prop Bets & Picks (2024)
Four weeks of the college football season (including Week 0) are in the books, and there has been plenty of games and data to sift through when it comes to making our College Football Week 4 Player Prop Bets and Picks.
Read on for our Top College Football Week 4 Player Prop Bets for Saturday.
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Saturday’s Best College Football Player Prop Bets & Picks
Let’s dive into our top college football Week 4 player prop bet picks on Saturday’s slate of games.
(College football player prop bet odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) Under 294.5 passing yards (-114)
Garrett Nussmeier’s 10 touchdown passes are tied for second among FBS quarterbacks, and he faces a Bruins defense who was just torched for 307 yards and four touchdowns by Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke (it was Rourke’s 10th career 300-yard game). However, while that makes Nussmeier’s Over on 2.5 passing touchdowns enticing, I expect head coach Brian Kelly to use this as an opportunity to focus on his team’s under-performing running game and take the load off Nussmeier prior to the bulk of SEC play.
LSU’s running game has been somewhat of an anomaly this year, with its best game on the ground coming against the best competition (4.5 yards per carry vs. USC), while it was held to 4.1 yards or fewer per carry against Nicholls and South Carolina. However, UCLA’s defense ranks in the bottom 20 of all FBS teams in Success Rate and is 89th in Rushing Plays Success Rate, so this sets up to be a week where Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier does not have to put the team completely on his shoulders.
Though he has thrown for 285-plus yards in every game this season, Nussmeier’s QBR, completion percentage, and passing yard totals have gone down in all three weeks, and I am backing him to go Under this projected total this week.
Henry Parrish Jr. (Ole Miss) to score 2+ touchdowns
Ole Miss running back Henry Parrish Jr.’s 22 carries, 338 rushing yards, and six rushing touchdowns are all at least double what the next best running back on the roster has produced thus far. Head coach Lane Kiffin may back off his workload starting this week with SEC play beginning next week, but Parrish Jr. still ran 22 times (and had 26 total touches) in a 40-6 blowout of Wake Forest. Given that Georgia State allowed a whopping 267 yards and six touchdowns to Ashton Jeanty in a Week 1 loss to Boise State, I have faith that Parrish Jr. can stuff the stat sheet with whatever playing time he is afforded.
Parrish Jr. has an absurd -667 price at Caesars to score at least one touchdown, while bet365 was the first to post a line for this wager at -105. That is a great value compared to his anytime touchdown odds, and I would play this up to -130 when the line is available at FanDuel.
Travis Hunter (Colorado) Under 90.5 receiving yards (-114)
Travis Hunter has totaled 100-plus receiving yards in all three games this season. However, his yardage total has gone down for three consecutive weeks while his receptions have increased each week, which means teams have adjusted to give him underneath routes and
limited his big-play ability.
Hunter had only one game last season where his yards per reception average was worse than last week’s 7.7 YPR output. Baylor also returns all four starters in the secondary from last year’s squad that allowed just 236.4 passing yards per game. The Bears rank third this year in EPA/Pass Allowed, in large part because of a top-50 pass rush (per PFF) that should wreak havoc on a Buffaloes offensive line that allows Sanders to
get hit way too much.
There is a big difference between FanDuel’s O/U of 90.5 yards and other sportsbooks that have an O/U of 94.5 yards. Thus, be sure to shop for the best number, but I will still play this even at the lower total of 90.5, as FanDuel was likely quick to the punch with the poor weather forecast in Boulder that calls for a 90% chance of precipitation during the game.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.