Bogman’s College Football Week 5 Best Bets & Predictions (2022)
Scott Bogman is back with his Week 5 picks!
Week 4 Record: 5-5
2022 Season Record: 26-14
Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 5 College Football Power Rankings >>
UTSA (-4.5) @ MTSU and OVER 61.5
MTSU is having an outstanding season so far, capped by the biggest upset of the year by beating Miami IN Miami as 25-point underdogs! The offense has been outstanding, led by QB Chase Cunningham, who has over 1000 passing yards and is top 20 in the Nation in completion percentage. Since the Week 1 loss to James Madison, the Blue Raiders have scored at least 34 points, including 45 against the Miami defense that had allowed 13, 7, and 17 points in their previous three games. The defense has not been on the same level, particularly against the pass, ranking 89th so far. James Madison put up six passing touchdowns, and Colorado State (who ranks 107th in passing) put up three touchdowns against them.
UTSA is only 2-2, but the losses have been against a tough Texas team in Austin and a 2-point loss in triple OT to Houston. The offense has been clicking with QB Frank Harris leading the country in total yards, sixth in passing yards, and has 10 passing touchdowns. The Roadrunners will need to stick with the passing game as the run game isn’t quite clicking yet, but as stated before, the MTSU defense has been weak against the pass, so the matchup is good. UTSA has been rough on defense, too, which is why I’m on the over here. Every FBS opponent has put up at least 35 points on them, and FCS Texas Southern managed 24.
So why am I taking UTSA? While MTSU has been impressive, I’m not really buying in. Yes, they beat Miami, but it was really because of some huge plays. A pick-6 and three explosive plays of 71, 69, and 98 yards are what did in Miami. MTSU is second in total sacks with 16, but nine of those came at the expense of Colorado State, who has allowed 25 through 4 games, ranking them dead last in the country. This game is definitely going to be high scoring, and I feel like the experience of Frank Harris plus a potential letdown spot for MTSU after an emotional win against Miami is going to lead to a big UTSA W!
Bet: UTSA -4.5 (-110), Over 61.5 (-110)
New Mexico State vs. FIU – UNDER 54
I want to take New Mexico State so badly after watching that AWFUL loss from FIU to WKU last week (which we had in this article). The issue is that outside of the big win against Hawai’i last week, the Aggies have been rough, scoring 13 or fewer points in their other four games that include losses to Nevada and UTEP. New Mexico State ranks below 120th in the country in passing and scoring but really impresses with the rushing coming in at 72nd with 157 rushing yards per game.
We know FIU is inept after last week’s 73-0 performance, but to put the numbers to it, they also rank below 120th in scoring and rushing but bump it all the way up to 93rd in passing with 228 yards per game. FIU is also 128th in 3rd down conversions, 96th in red zone conversion rate, and 116th in Time of Possession. These teams have a combined three players with a grade over 70 on offense from PFF, and the QBs are all below 67.
The Defenses for these teams are also completely inept, so if either team can get rolling, we could see a crescendo of points. FIU has scored 12 total points in two games against FBS opponents, and New Mexico State wants to run the ball and the clock. I expect this to be a very boring punt and field position game because either team has a shot to win this, and opportunities for Wins are not going to come along often for these two. New Mexico State is the home team, and I expect them to win, but they are far from trustworthy. Therefore, I’ll trust that neither offense will click, and this game will stay way under this total.
Bet: Under 54 (-110)
Arizona (-17.5) vs Colorado
Last week I made the mistake of taking the under in the Cal vs. Arizona game, but this is where we can learn from my mistake. I thought that maybe Cal had caught Notre Dame on a bad week, but instead, they really clicked, putting up 49 on the Wildcats and are off to a great 3-1 start with unbelievable freshman RB Jaydn Ott. In that loss for Arizona, we also saw QB Jayden De Laura go off for 402 yards passing, and WR Jacob Cowing had seven receptions for 133 yards and a TD. These transfers are starting to hum! Arizona ranks 22nd in passing and averages over 28 points per game for the first time since 2018.
Colorado actually ranks ninth in passing yards against this season, but it’s not because they have a great pass defense as they grade out at 130th in coverage, according to PFF. Colorado ranks ninth because no one has to pass on them. They have given up rushing totals of 275 vs. TCU, 435 to Air Force, 334 to Minnesota, and 249 to UCLA. Air Force completed one pass and beat Colorado by 31 points. Opposing QBs have a 71.5% completion rate which puts them only behind Oregon, Bowling Green, and Charlotte.
Colorado has averaged under 12 points per game with a season-high of 17. They haven’t crossed 350 yards in any of their four games and have allowed 11 sacks. Arizona isn’t where they want to be yet, but they are good enough to beat Colorado by 17.5 or more.
Bet: Arizona (-17.5) (-105)
#4 Michigan (-10.5) @ Iowa and UNDER 42.5
I feel like this is going to be a gross slow Big 10 style of game. Lots of punts and defense as this game matches up the #1 and #2 ranked defenses according to PFF. The offensive issues for Iowa have been well-documented, specifically the safety-safety-FG game against South Dakota State in the home opener. Iowa has stepped it up in their last two games, though, going over 330 yards against Nevada, scoring 27 points against them, and 27 again against Rutgers last week. These scoring outputs have been a bit of a mirage. Nevada is just rough overall, and even in the win, they still allowed the Wolf Pack to lead in Time of Possession and converted less than 50% of their 3rd-down opportunities. In the win over Rutgers, Iowa still was 1/9 on 3rd down, passed for less than 150 yards, and two of their three touchdowns were on defense.
Michigan is way better on offense, but everything works through their run game. Blake Corum is leading the country in rushing touchdowns with 9, is seventh in rushing yards, and is third in yards per rush among players with 50 carries or more. Iowa is sixth against the run, allowing less than 75 yards per game, and the high total against them was 129 in the 10-7 loss to Iowa State.
I’m trying to thread the needle here for sure. I want a team to win by double-digits and keep the total under 43. Iowa could be so inept offensively that they turn the ball over more than a couple of times. Still, Michigan has only forced six on the year, and they’ve played three of the most inept offenses in the nation with wins against Hawai’i, UConn, and Colorado State. Half of those six turnovers came against Maryland last week, so even the really bad offenses only gave up three combined.
Michigan will have a tough time running the ball and might be without their second-leading rusher, Donovan Edwards. Iowa can force some turnovers themselves, but I think at the end of the day, this is a 24-10 Michigan win where they pull away at the end. Indeed, 27-14 still gets the job done on both ends, as does 31-10. Gross and low scoring sound like a Big 10 matchup to me!
Bet: Under 42.5 (-115)
Other Games I Like:
- Troy (+4.5) @ WKU
- #19 BYU (-24) vs. Utah State
- UNLV (-14.5) vs. New Mexico
- #25 Kansas State vs. Texas Tech – OVER 57
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