College Football Week 5: Early Lines, Odds, & Predictions
We’re settling into conference play throughout college football in Week 5, providing plenty of good matchups to analyze and bet on.
Week 4 had some huge upsets occur, with No. 11 USC losing on the road against No. 18 Michigan in a highly entertaining back-and-forth Big Ten contest. No. 22 Nebraska lost at home in overtime to No. 24 Illinois, while 2-0 Syracuse lost outright to Stanford at home on the final drive of the game. No. 16 LSU and No.7 Missouri avoided upsets, while No. 12 Utah won 22-19 on the road against No. 14 Oklahoma State, despite playing without QB Cam Rising. No. 13 Kansas State got trounced 38-9 on the road against undefeated BYU, while No. 6 Tennessee smothered No. 15 Oklahoma 25-15 on the road during the Sooners’ first game as a member of the SEC.
Week 4 was our first losing weekend in college football this season, going 1-3 with my Week 4 best bets. Let’s bounce back and sweep this upcoming card by using my latest line movement analysis to help predict four games on the Week 5 college football slate.
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College Football Early Line Movement: Week 5
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
| Away | Home | Open Spread | Current Spread | Open Total | Current Total | Spread +/- | Total +/- |
| Virginia Tech | Miami (FL) | -14 | -19 | 56.5 | 55.5 | -5 | -1 |
| Oklahoma State | Kansas State | -3.5 | -6 | 52.5 | 55 | -2.5 | +2.5 |
| Louisville | Notre Dame | -4.5 | -5.5 | 48 | 48 | -1 | 0 |
| Georgia | Alabama | +3 | +2 | 49.5 | 50 | -1 | +0.5 |
Virginia Tech vs. Miami (FL) (7)
Cam Ward has elevated Miami (FL) to the class of the ACC after arriving through the transfer portal from Washington State. The Hurricanes have won all four of their games by at least 19 points, which is where the point spread has moved since opening at -14.
There’s no reason to fade Miami against a Virginia Tech team that just lost 26-23 at home against Rutgers in Week 4. The Hokies are allowing 22.8 points per game, 67th out of 134 FBS programs, while the offense is scoring 29.5 points, 75th amongst FBS schools. The Hurricanes’ defense is allowing only 10.3 points per game, so we’re going to back Miami to cover -19 at home against Virginia Tech on Friday night.
Best Bet: Miami (FL) -19 (-110)
Oklahoma State (20) vs. Kansas State (23)
Oklahoma State couldn’t beat Utah at home without their QB1, Cam Rising, despite trying their best to erase a double-digit deficit late in the game. Now, the Cowboys travel to face Kansas State, who just got routed 38-9 on the road against undefeated BYU.
Both of these teams looked much better a week ago, but I’ll back Kansas State at home. QB Avery Johnson is a solid dual-threat out of the backfield alongside RB DJ Giddens, and Oklahoma State is allowing 4.5 YPC. Meanwhile, the Wildcats’ defense is surrendering 2.8 YPC and Oklahoma State already struggles establishing the run despite featuring RB Ollie Gordon, while Kansas State is holding opponents to 5.2 yards per pass attempt and less than 300 passing yards, which is the Cowboys’ strength.
The line movement has jumped -2.5 in favor of Kansas State at home, so let’s lay -6 with the Wildcats. After all, they did hold a high-octane Arizona offense to seven points during their last home game.
Best Bet: Kansas State -6 (-110)
Louisville (15) vs. Notre Dame (16)
Notre Dame’s ugly 16-14 home loss to Northern Illinois in Week 2 has been largely eradicated with a rout of Purdue and beating Miami (OH) 28-3 in Week 4. Still, the Fighting Irish need to be prepared for Louisville, who just beat Georgia Tech 31-19 to improve to 3-0 in 2024.
The line has moved from -4.5 to -5.5 in favor of Notre Dame, but I think it’s too much to lay. The Cardinals are 3-0 ATS and have won every game played by at least 10 points, scoring 47.3 points per game, ranked 12th in the FBS. Their defense is also solid, ranked 13th, allowing 11.0 points per game on average.
Notre Dame’s defense is stout, while their offense is volatile and heavily reliant on its ground game, which could encounter resistance against Louisville. Let’s take under 48 total points as our best bet in South Bend, Indiana for Week 5.
Best Bet: Under 48 (-110)
Georgia (2) vs. Alabama (4)
The biggest game on the Week 5 college football slate is a SEC showdown in Tuscaloosa, Alabama between No. 2 Georgia and No. 4 Alabama. Each team is coming off of a Week 4 bye and has plenty of rest to prepare for their opponent.
The Bulldogs survived an upset on the road against Kentucky, winning 13-12 in a low-scoring, defensive struggle. Meanwhile, Alabama went up to Madison, Wisconsin and routed the Badgers 42-10 behind five total touchdowns from QB Jalen Milroe.
I give the edge to Milroe and Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer at home in this contest. The Crimson Tide defense is allowing 8.7 points per game, while scoring 49.0 points per matchup. Georgia got off to a slow start against Clemson and never got into a rhythm against Kentucky, and now, they’ll be in a hostile environment competing against a high-octane Alabama offense.
The line has moved from Alabama +3 to Alabama +2, but I’m willing to be more bold and back the Crimson Tide on the moneyline at +105 odds. Alabama’s offense will prove to be too much for Georgia’s defense, while the Bulldogs’ offense won’t be able to get much going against Alabama’s defense on Saturday night.
Best Bet: Alabama Moneyline (+105)
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