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College Football Week 5 Odds Pick & Prediction: UL Monroe vs. Arkansas State (2022)

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Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 5 odds, picks, and predictions for this week’s game: UL Monroe vs. Arkansas State.

Check out our other best college football bets for Week 5:

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 5 College Football Power Rankings >>

College Football Week 5 Early Odds, Picks & Prediction: UL Monroe vs. Arkansas State

UL Monroe (+7) at Arkansas State

This Sun Belt tilt pits two of the least intimidating programs in the country against one another. Neither defense has impressed, with UL Monroe's unit coming in at 108th and Arkansas State's at 116th in defensive SP+ rankings. In addition, neither team boasts an offense that is much to talk about, ranking 110th and 81st, respectively. So why is Arkansas State laying over a touchdown?

Arkansas State has had back-to-back games against respectable FBS competition, Memphis and Old Dominion, where they hung around late, ultimately faltering down the stretch. This may account for the spread discrepancy, but diving into the overall numbers tells a different story about this team. Arkansas State has been underwhelming both offensively and defensively. They rank 123rd in EPA margin per play. UL Monroe, meanwhile, has shown something with the run game ranking 23rd in offensive EPA per run play. This was ability was on display in their upset over Louisiana in week 3, rushing for 5.8 yards per play on 39 attempts.

Arkansas State and UL Monroe both rank near the bottom in most aspects in 2022, so there isn't much reason to believe Arkansas State is better than a touchdown favorite. UL Monroe is the better team and should be backed on the moneyline.

Pick: UL Monroe ML (+220)

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.

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