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College Football Week 5 Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)

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Gear up for another awesome weekend of college football action with BettingPros! We’ll have you covered with all of our top picks for the week along with our projected spreads and totals to help guide your college football bets. Below are our top picks and predictions for Week 5’s college football games.

Top College Football Odds & Picks: Week 5

Mississippi State vs. Texas

As the No. 1 team in the country, the Longhorns are the team to beat, but the Bulldogs may be hard-pressed to give Texas a proper SEC welcome. Their defense is not good at stopping the run or the pass, and they give up around 400 yards and 30+ points a game. When such a defense faces an offense that averaged 500+ yards and nearly 50 points a game…It doesn’t matter who starts at QB for Texas, Quinn Ewers or Archie Manning; the offense is explosive, and it’s hard to get off the field. When the Bulldogs have the ball, their best chance for success will be letting QB Blake Shapen air it out against the Longhorns’ top-ten pass defense; he’s completing 68.5% of his passes this season for 974 yards and eight touchdowns with just one interception. Mississippi State will essentially need a minor miracle to win.

Pick: Texas -37.5

-Travis Pulver

Ohio State vs. Michigan State

The Buckeyes hit the road for their first road game of the season, and also their first inside the conference. It has been a run of cupcakes so far, as Akron, Western Michigan, and Marshall aren’t exactly a gauntlet. The Buckeyes have been flooring it on offense, though, as portal add QB Will Howard has fit in nicely, and he has jelled immediately with 5-star true freshman WR Jeremiah Smith, who has been everything as advertised. The most important add might have been RB Quinshon Judkins, however, as he is a bruising back that Ryan Day has wanted. He fits in nicely in the physical Big Ten, and he will be a handful for a Spartans defense that has allowed 23.5 PPG to two Power 4 teams, Boston College and Maryland. The Buckeyes have 49 or more points in all three games, and the Over is a perfect 3-0. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Ohio State take care of the Over itself, and it’s surprising the total is so low. Take advantage.

Pick: Over 48

-Daniel Dobish

Oregon vs. UCLA

Oregon has played some close games to start the season and probably should have lost against Boise State. Two weeks ago, against Oregon State was the first time everything was in sync. They got the passing attack from Dillion Gabriel, and Jordan James played great again. This was the best protection we’ve seen from the offensive line. It’s a new era for UCLA, and they are going through growing pains. They’ve lost the last two games by a combined 76-30. The Bruins brought in DeShaun Foster to head this team, but more importantly, Eric Bienemy, who coached Patrick Mahomes to two Super Bowls, as the offensive coordinator. They are currently 103rd in points per game. The Ducks had two weeks to prepare for this game and will be ready to cruise to a win.

Pick: Oregon -25.5

-John Supowitz

Illinois vs. Penn State

After knocking off Nebraska on the road in overtime last Friday night, it’s fair to wonder how much the Illini will have left in the tank for another primetime matchup in an even more hostile environment. Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions have mostly rolled through their non-conference schedule, with the exception of a 7-point win against Bowling Green. The key to this matchup will be Penn State’s passing game against an Illinois secondary that’s surrendered just 5.9 yards per pass attempt but hasn’t been tested against an aerial attack of this caliber. The Nittany Lions lead the nation with 12.3 yards per throw, but have only thrown it 69 times as a result of some early-season blowouts. Bret Bielema’s squad did pull off an upset in Happy Valley in 2021, but it’s worth mentioning that Penn State drubbed Illinois 30-13 in Champaign last year. And while Illinois’ 4-0 start should be applauded, I still have questions about this roster’s overall talent, and a win against a Nebraska program that has consistently vomited on themselves against ranked opponents doesn’t change my outlook a ton. A 17.5 point spread between two top-20 teams may tell us everything we need to know. Back the Nittany Lions.

Pick: Penn State -17.5

-Matt Barbato

Wisconsin vs. USC

After a bye week, Wisconsin will start their Big Ten schedule in Los Angeles. You read that right, Los Angeles, to take on the USC Trojans. The last time we saw Wisconsin, they were getting blown out at home against Alabama. The Badgers managed just 290 yards of offense on 72 plays. QB Tyler Van Dyke was injured during the game and Braedyn Locke came in going 13/26 for 125 yards. Wisconsin, who had already been struggling on offense this year, now finds themselves in a deep hole. Their EPA per play on offense is 92nd in the country, and on the ground, where they’ve thrived in the past and Michigan found success against USC last week, they rank 96th. For USC the gameplan is simple. Alabama managed over 10 yards per play on dropbacks and over 5 yards per play on the ground. This is an elite USC offense (18th in EPA per play) that should have their way with the Wisconsin defense. After a tough loss last week USC will be looking to make a statement at home. Wisconsin showed that they cannot stop an elite offense and their own offense is incapable of keeping up. We’re backing the Trojans in this one.

Pick: USC -14.5

-Ryan Rodeman

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State

What initially looked to be a potential Big 12 preview now serves as a pivotal bounce-back spot for two teams coming off inexplicable losses. Oklahoma State will look to bounce back after a ridiculous loss at home to Utah, who was without QB Cam Rising. Meanwhile, the Wildcats will look to rebound from an ugly loss to BYU on the road. At this point, it’s really hard to trust Kansas State QB Avery Johnson, who is not living up to the preseason hype. Johnson killed his team with two interceptions in a game where K-State outgained the Cougars by 126 yards and ran for 228 yards but still lost by nearly 30. The Wildcats could run all over an Oklahoma State defense that allowed 249 yards on the ground to a Utah offense that was starting Zach Wilson’s brother under center. Meanwhile, Alan Bowman was awful in the loss, completing 19-of-44 passes. He’ll need to be more efficient against a Wildcats secondary that ranks 106th in yards allowed per attempt. While I lean the Pokes on the spread, I’m more confident in a play on the over, as both defenses have glaring weaknesses that their opponents should be able to exploit.

Pick: Over 57.5

-Matt Barbato

Oklahoma vs. Auburn

Michael Hawkins Jr. has been named the starting quarterback for the Sooners this week. While this may concern some, he looked significantly better than Jackson Arnold against Tennessee last week, and he may be able to get the Sooners out of their offensive funk. Despite Hawkins being more than capable, the Sooners are underdogs in this game, in part because they’ll be missing 5 WRs due to injury. The Tigers have lost home games to Arkansas and Cal this season, so it’s not like they have some incredible home-field advantage. Plus, the Sooners’ defense was pretty remarkable last week against Tennessee. If they play that well again this week, it’s hard to imagine the Tigers scoring more than 14 points in this game. And with the Sooners scoring at least 24 in most scenarios, it’s hard to imagine them not covering.

Pick: Oklahoma +1.5

-Phil Wood

Minnesota vs. Michigan

This is one of a few games that has the opportunity to be impacted by weather this weekend. Forecasts indicate there could be rain and wind. That can be a killer combo for a strong pass game. Luckily for Michigan that plays right to their strengths. Last week, they managed to beat an 11th-ranked USC team with only 32 passing yards. The three-headed monster of Kalel Mullings, Donovan Edwards and Alex Orji combined for 276 yards on 44 attempts as they ground the USC defense down. Now they get a Minnesota team that ranks 85th against the run in EPA per play. The Gophers allowed 285 non-sack yards on the ground to the Hawkeyes last week. A carbon copy of the gameplan Michigan just won with and will likely need to employ again in this one. There will be opportunities to fade this Michigan offense if it remains one-dimensional but in this matchup and in this weather, that one dimension should propel them to a big win.

Pick: Michigan -10.5

-Ryan Rodeman

Iowa State vs. Houston

What in the world was that performance by Houston last week? The Cougars went to Cincinnati and they were blown out 34-0. They turned the ball over three times and managed just 233 yards of total offense. It was bad all around, but that doesn’t mean they’re about to lose by two touchdowns to the Cyclones. Remember, just two weeks ago, the Cougars nearly upset the Sooners. The defense had been decent up until last week, and they should rebound nicely against an offense that isn’t very good. The Cyclones put up 52 points last week, but they combined for just 41 in their first two games and only scored 21 against North Dakota. The Cougars need to score a touchdown in this game to cover. They’ll get it done, as they lose this game by a final score of something like 17-7 or 20-7.

Pick: Houston +16

-Phil Wood

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M

The Aggies are on upset alert this week, and there is value in taking the Razorbacks to win this game outright. If this game was being played in Arkansas, it wouldn’t even be a question. The Aggies are only allowing 110.3 rushing yards per game this season, but that’s all going to change on Saturday. Ja’Quinden Jackson is averaging 9.8 yards per carry this season, and he’s already racked up 472 yards for the Razorbacks. The Aggies have beaten no one this season, as the Florida Gators are significantly worse than many expected they’d be. Last week, the Aggies only managed to defeat Bowling Green by six points. Meanwhile, the Razorbacks’ only loss was in double overtime against Oklahoma State. They’ve won every other game by double digits. Quarterback Taylen Green needs to take care of the ball, and if he does, the Razorbacks will win this one by a touchdown.

Pick: Arkansas +5.5

-Phil Wood

Washington State vs. Boise State

The unbeaten Cougars hit the road to battle the Broncos on the Smurf Turf in Boise. It’s been a whirlwind start for Washington State, as it has already ticked off wins over Power 4 schools Texas Tech and rival Washington. The 24-19 win at Lumen Field in Seattle against the Huskies was a coming-out party for QB John Mateer, as the nation got to see how good he really is. That was on full display against San Jose State last weekend, too, as the Dawgs won a wild 54-52 in 2OT. The Cougs were forced to rally from 14 down against the Spartans at home last weekend, but Mateer again put on a show, throwing for 390 yards, four TDs and a team-high 111 rushing yards and a score. He also had the game-clinching two-point conversion run. Boise State has rolled up 56 points in a pair of games against Georgia Southern and Portland State, as RB Ashton Jeanty has been on fire. The Broncos lost 37-34 at Oregon on Sept. 7, but the offense was electric then, too. This could be a video game-like day of offense, and the scoreboard operator better get limbered up.

Pick: Over 65 

-Daniel Dobish

Northern Illinois vs. North Carolina State

Three weeks ago Northern Illinois was riding high after a win over Notre Dame. The Huskies had catapulted themselves into the Group of Five discussion for the CFP. After last week and a loss to Buffalo, they’re back down to earth. The win over Notre Dame was impressive, but the Fighting Irish’s other outcomes have been indicative that the game was more of a blip. The Huskies will take on NC State in Week 5. The results haven’t been impressive by the Wolfpack, but they’ve had one of the hardest schedules in the nation early on. Games against CFP contenders Tennessee and Clemson have weighed down a 2-2 start as the Wolfpack got blown out on each occasion, the latter without starting QB Grayson McCall. McCall seems unlikely to play again, although he hasn’t been ruled out. This is still a perfect opportunity to back an NC State team that is at its lowest and fade an NIU team that likely still had a way to fall.

Pick: NC State -7.5

-Ryan Rodeman

Nebraska vs. Purdue

Will the Cornhuskers get off the mat and show up after a gutting loss to Illinois in overtime last weekend? Well, they couldn’t have asked for a better opponent to get right against. Purdue is coming off consecutive losses to Notre Dame and Oregon State by a combined score of 104-28. And while the Huskers haven’t gone on the road this season, they have performed well as big favorites, covering spreads of 27.5, 6.5 and 30.5 before faltering last week as 9.5-point favorites against Illinois. It doesn’t help that Purdue’s biggest strength, it’s running game, will go up against a strong Nebraska front seven that’s allowing just over 3 yards per rush on the season. Otherwise, Purdue doesn’t do much well. Matt Rhule should have his team fired up, but while I’d lean laying the points with Nebraska, I’m a bit squeamish about laying a big number in a pretty sleepy spot. So instead, I’ll take the under. I don’t know if Purdue can crack double digits against this Nebraska defense. And Mother Nature may also play a role in this game, as sustained winds of 20 MPH with gusts up to 38 MPH are projected in West Lafayette Saturday as Hurricane Helene’s remnants sweep through Indiana. This one could be awfully ugly.

Pick: Under 47.5

-Matt Barbato

Louisville vs. Notre Dame

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have responded well since a 16-13 upset loss to Northern Illinois. Notre Dame earned back-to-back wins against Purdue and Miami-Ohio, allowing ten points in eight quarters combined. But they’ve got a much taller task against Louisville. The Louisville Cardinals are already 3-0 and added a 12-point win against Georgia Tech behind Tyler Shough, a complete quarterback. He’s thrown for eight touchdowns and 850 yards in four games. Meanwhile, Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard has thrown just one passing touchdown and two interceptions in four games. Leonard is a run-first quarterback who just doesn’t have good enough accuracy. With Louisville allowing only 87.33 yards rushing per game this season, it’s unlikely Notre Dame will score at a high rate. It’s also unlikely Louisville dominates in the air against one of the best secondaries in college football. I’ll grab the Under 45.5 (-120).

Pick: Under 45.5

-Jason Radowitz

North Carolina vs. Duke

It’s not college basketball season just yet, But this should be a fun rivalry matchup between North Carolina and Duke. North Carolina has already played in four games and has used three quarterbacks. The primary reason for this was due to transfer QB Max Johnson’s season-ending injury. The team tried Connor Harrell against Charlotte and weren’t impressed, so they moved on to senior Jacoby Criswell. Criswell had an interesting game last week against James Madison. Though North Carolina lost 70-50, Criswell threw for 475 yards and three touchdowns. He also threw two interceptions and was sacked three times. In addition, he completed only 58.3% of passes. It was a complete mixed bag. Conversely, Duke is 4-0 with only one real quality win against Northwestern on the road. Duke even beat UConn by just five points at home. That said, Duke’s secondary should force more interceptions and give QB Malik Murphy good field position to work offense. I’m taking Duke at -2.5 (-115).

Pick: Duke -2.5

-Jason Radowitz

Stanford vs. Clemson

Since Clemson’s loss against Georgia, the Bulldogs have looked like a powerhouse. Clemson knocked off Appalachian State 66-20 and followed that with a 59-35 win against North Carolina State. Still, App State just lost to South Alabama, and North Carolina State might be one of the worst Power-4 schools in the nation. Stanford will be Clemson’s biggest test since Georgia after earning back-to-back wins against Cal Poly and Syracuse. While Clemson has earned 189 yards on the ground per game this season, Stanford has allowed just 51.67 yards on the ground, including two of three games against TCU and Syracuse. Don’t be surprised if Clemson struggles to run the football effectively. It’s also hard to trust Cade Klubnik. He’s got a 92.3 QBR, thanks to his 92.3% completion percentage against Appalachian State. It’s a skewed stat for now. I like Stanford to at least cover the 22.5-point spread here.

Pick: Stanford +22.5

-Jason Radowitz

Georgia vs. Alabama

Georgia vs. Alabama is always the game you mark on your calendars. You can’t ignore Georgia’s game against Kentucky, but they get a small pass as they were missing several key players on their defensive front, and the Wildcats benefitted from it. They will have some of those players back. Quarterback Carson Beck leading this team makes them great, but running back Trevor Etienne looks healthy, and if he can help balance that offense, they are dangerous. Alabama is already in mid-season form on offense. Jalen Milroe looks good with his arm and legs, Jam Miller and Justice Haynes are a great backfield duo, and 17-year-old Ryan Williams has had a big play in each game. Despite these teams being top-six defenses, they haven’t been challenged yet, which will happen in this game. These teams are too closely matched to pick a winner, so look at taking the over.

Pick: Over 49 

-John Supowitz

Arizona vs. Utah

It’s so hard to get used to this, but we get the Wildcats and Utes in a conference game, but that’s now a league game in the Big 12, not the Pac-12. The last time these teams met in Tucson, Arizona pasted Utah 42-18 in stunning fashion, but Utah had won the previous six meetings since Oct. 2016. Utah is also 5-2 ATS in that seven-game span. Arizona started out the season with a ton of offense against New Mexico, as WR Tetairoa McMillan went over 300 receiving yards. The offense struggled against Northern Arizona in a 22-10 win, and the floor dropped out in a 31-7 setback at Kansas State. The Wildcats are 0-3 ATS on the season, and the Under has cashed in the past two games. For Utah, it’s hard to know what we’re going to get. QB Cam Rising (hand) has missed the past two games, and while QB Isaac Wilson has filled in with a pair of wins. But Rising takes the Utes offense to another level, while Utah is just an above-average team with Wilson. It’s hard to handicap the total side, so we’ll stick with an Under here. The total has gone low in three of four games for Utah, while cashing in all three games for Arizona.

Pick: Under 47.5

-Daniel Dobish

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