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College Football Week 5 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Long Shot Bets (2023)

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In Week 4, we had two competitive games late but were unable to cash another long-shot winner after three consecutive positive weeks. Conference play continues to ramp up as we see more teams that are familiar with each other battle. These conference games often breed huge long-shot winners.

Let's take a look at a few of my favorite outright, large underdogs for this weekend.

Best College Football Week 5 Long Shot Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

#24 Kansas (+600) at #3 Texas (-16.5)

Four games into the season, and it's somewhat clear that Texas is back. An enormous Red River Rivalry game awaits in Week 6 against a strong Oklahoma team. Could this be a look-ahead spot for the Longhorns? I think it could. Kansas enters Austin hoping to repeat their performance in 2021 and leave with a victory.

There is no sugarcoating it; the Kansas defense isn't great. Texas should have no issue scoring in this game. The Longhorns have scored 50 or more in three consecutive matchups against the Jawyhawks but managed only two wins. This year, the Jayhawks have shown a decent run defense. They'll try and make Texas a one-dimensional offense on Saturday, a tactic that worked for teams last year. If they can find a way to fluster QB Quin Ewers, it could stand to benefit them. However, if not, they should be able to keep up with Texas.

Kansas's offense has been incredibly sharp in the early part of this season. Led by QB Jalon Daniels, they've compiled a top 20 SP+ Offense that is a balanced attack of running and passing. It'll be the biggest test offensively that Texas has had to date. Daniels will be an even better dual threat than they faced against Alabama, who gave them their toughest matchup so far. The Texas defense has been elite but allowed QB Jalen Milroe to have a decent day passing, although he threw two interceptions. Daniels could have similar, if not more, success. This game should turn into a track meet, and that could help Kansas pull off another upset at Texas.

Michigan State (+380) at Iowa (-12)

It's been a tumultuous few weeks for the Spartans. Controversy struck the coaching staff, and Mel Tucker's firing is just a formality at this point. It couldn't have come at a less opportune time, as Washington and Maryland were next up on the schedule. Both games ended in a blowout to the surprise of few, and next up is a team that struggles to blow out even their weakest of opponents, Iowa.

The loss against Washington is forgivable. The Huskies will make a lot of teams look like that on less stressful weeks than Michigan State experienced. The loss to Maryland looked bad on the scoreboard, but a deeper dive into the box score tells a very different story. The turnover bug bit Michigan State in a big way. Three interceptions, a fumble, a turnover on downs at the goal line and a missed field goal plagued the Spartans. They out-gained Maryland and won the time of possession. The five-to-one turnover differential was a crucial factor in that loss. Michigan State isn't as bad as they've shown the last two weeks, and I have no concern about their opponent.

Iowa showed, yet again, that their offense isn't cut out for major College Football. Their second-half onslaught of an overmatched Western Michigan was shown to be a mirage when they were shut out by Penn State. The inability to move the ball consistently will start biting Iowa more as they play some tougher competition in the Big Ten. Michigan State, although not a defensive juggernaut, is more than capable of slowing the Hawkeyes down. This is the last opportunity for the Spartans to show they haven't fully given up on the season, and I expect them to do so.

South Carolina (+380) at #21 Tennessee (-11.5)

This game was a classic last year. The Gamecocks outlasted the Volunteers, as QB Spencer Rattler went off for 438 yards and six touchdowns in a 63-38 win. The Volunteer defense has looked a lot better this season but against some lesser competition. The line for this game seems a little ridiculous, and frankly, I like South Carolina to win outright.

Tennessee has looked dominant in their three wins, but against a solid defense in Florida, QB Joe Milton looked pedestrian. South Carolina isn't exactly a solid defense, but they've played a pretty loaded schedule to this point. Losses to North Carolina and Georgia saw them stay in those games late. Last week, the Gamecocks beat Mississippi State in a high-scoring game. The defense isn't going to win them any SEC title, but it could be enough to beat Tennessee.

It's the offense of South Carolina that has me excited about this one. Rattler has picked up right where he left off, averaging over 300 yards per game with seven touchdowns on the season. In Tennessee's loss to Florida, QB Graham Mertz didn't light up the box score, but he did manage to post a 92.5 QBR. Rattler is more talented and comfortable in his offense and should be able to shine. South Carolina is comfortable playing in these kinds of shootouts, but Tennessee might not have as strong of an offense as we thought before the season. It's the Gamecock offense that will give them the advantage, but don't be surprised if the defense makes enough key plays to pull this one out.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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