College Football Week 5 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets (2022)
The best thing about college football is that it delivers every single Saturday. Week 4 saw big upsets in the form of James Madison over Appalachian State, Kansas State over Oklahoma, and a stunning Texas Tech win over Texas. As we turn the calendar onto October, the days get shorter, the air gets cooler, and most importantly, the competition ratchets up to another level.
When the competition heats up, that is where the longshots thrive. The Week 5 slate is no different. I’ll highlight a few games where underdogs around a touchdown or more have a strong opportunity to win or cover easily (if the is too long). Here are the games that I’m eyeing in Week 5.
Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 5 College Football Power Rankings >>
Michigan State (+8.5) at Maryland
Not many would have expected this line before the season started, or even a few weeks ago, for that matter. Michigan State has looked brutal defensively in back-to-back matchups against Washington and Minnesota. They won’t get much reprieve against a Maryland offense that played very well in the early season, ranking 14th in offensive SP+, but this isn’t the matchup the Spartans need to exploit in order to pull off this upset.
QB Payton Thorne is more than capable of taking advantage of this Maryland defense. The Terrapins impressed, holding Michigan to just 220 yards in the air, but open misses downfield made the final numbers look more palatable. This is the same pass defense that gave up big yardage in the air to Charlotte and SMU. Outside of running into a Minnesota defense that may be a force in the Big Ten West, the Spartans have compiled an offense good enough for 27th in SP+. In a game that could fast turn into a track meet, Michigan State is more than capable of slinging the ball on this defense.
Maryland turned a lot of heads with their performance against Michigan, but common pitfalls did eventually do them in. QB Taulia Tagovailoa was able to make plays both with his arm and legs, but when big plays needed to be made, he turned the ball over. This Michigan State team is not as bad as their last two outings have shown, and as a proud team with an experienced quarterback, they will look to upset the surprising Terrapins in College Park.
Pick: Michigan State ML (+245)
Georgia Southern (+10.5) at Coastal Carolina
Georgia Southern is no stranger to pulling off longshot upsets in 2022. They’ve already walked into Lincoln and left with an upset as 23.5-point underdogs. They present an element that is crucial in pulling off upsets, an explosive offense.
The possibility of bad weather is in the forecast due to Hurricane Ian. The running games will be the focal point of both offenses. This could lean in Georgia Southern’s favor. The Eagles rank 25th in offensive EPA per game. Their running game has been very effective, totaling over 5.6 yards per play on the ground in the early season. They’ll look to exploit a Coastal Carolina defense that gave up over 5 yards per play to the run-heavy Army offense. Meanwhile, Coastal Carolina has leaned on QB Grayson McCall and the passing game, which could be negated due to the weather.
Georgia Southern and their strong running game will look to add another longshot upset to their resume against Coastal Carolina. Potentially sloppy conditions will favor the team with a better running game. Georgia Southern has the right recipe to walk into Conway, SC, and leave with an upset win.
Pick: Georgia Southern ML (+300)
UL Monroe (+7) at Arkansas State
This Sun Belt tilt pits two of the least intimidating programs in the country against one another. Neither defense has impressed, with UL Monroe’s unit coming in at 108th and Arkansas State’s at 116th in defensive SP+ rankings. In addition, neither team boasts an offense that is much to talk about, ranking 110th and 81st, respectively. So why is Arkansas State laying over a touchdown?
Arkansas State has had back-to-back games against respectable FBS competition, Memphis and Old Dominion, where they hung around late, ultimately faltering down the stretch. This may account for the spread discrepancy, but diving into the overall numbers tells a different story about this team. Arkansas State has been underwhelming both offensively and defensively. They rank 123rd in EPA margin per play. UL Monroe, meanwhile, has shown something with the run game ranking 23rd in offensive EPA per run play. This was ability was on display in their upset over Louisiana in week 3, rushing for 5.8 yards per play on 39 attempts.
Arkansas State and UL Monroe both rank near the bottom in most aspects in 2022, so there isn’t much reason to believe Arkansas State is better than a touchdown favorite. UL Monroe is the better team and should be backed on the moneyline.
Pick: UL Monroe ML (+220)
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