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College Football Week 5 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (10/1)

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Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 5 odds, picks, and predictions for Saturday’s games.

Check out our other best college football bets for Week 5:

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 5 College Football Power Rankings >>

College Football Week 5 Odds, Picks & Predictions for Saturday

Florida State (-6.5) vs. Wake Forest

Wake Forest is getting some love from the market after pushing Clemson to the brink in last week’s overtime loss. This week, the Demon Deacons are walking into the eye of the storm (Hurricane Ian) to play Florida State.

Saturday’s inclement conditions might wreak havoc on both teams’ passing attacks. Forecasts at kick call for 12 mph winds with a 20% chance of rain. Any deleterious meteorological effect on passing would be far, far more problematic for Wake than FSU in this matchup.

We can officially say it now: FSU HC Mike Norvell has the ‘Noles offense up and running to his old Memphis standards. The running game is nasty, explosive, and efficient. And the passing attack can beat the single coverage it consistently gets because of the attention you have to pay the rushing attack, underneath and over-the-top.

Believe it or not, QB Jordan Travis has led FSU to No. 8 EPA/pass so far. Letting Travis lollipop balls over single coverage to 6’7 WR Johnny Wilson is not fair.

But it’s that FSU rushing attack that is really going to give Wake headaches. The Seminoles rank top-13 in the country in both rushing success rate and rushing efficiency. In short: It’s impossible to keep the Seminoles offense off schedule now that it can block and pass.

Wake Forest’s defense doesn’t stand a chance of doing so. Wake ranks No. 51 run/EPA – but that mediocre standing is propped up by having played VMI, Vanderbilt, and Liberty. Wake’s opponent-adjusted advanced metrics paint a clearer picture.

The Demon Deacons rank No. 70 in defensive rushing success rate and No. 95 in defensive rushing explosion. In short: Wake struggles to keep average rushing attacks off schedule.

FSU’s run defense is its defensive weakness. But here’s the beautiful thing: Wake Forest is one of the worst rushing teams in the nation. The Demon Deacons rank No. 116 in EPA/run. And incredibly, Wake ranks No. 100 or worse in all of the following run offense categories: success rate, efficiency, explosion, opportunity rate, power success rate, and stuff rate.

Where FSU’s defense excels is against the pass. Between that and the expected inclement conditions, there’s a real possibility that WF QB Sam Hartman has a down game. Even if he doesn’t, it’s going to be hard to go score-for-score with FSU’s offensive barrage. Especially with Wake coming off that body-blow loss to Clemson.

Pick: FSU -6.5

  • Thor Nystrom

Rutgers (+41) at Ohio State

OSU Jaxson Smith-Njigba, who missed last Saturday’s win over Wisconsin with an undisclosed injury (possibly an aggravation of the hamstring issue that caused him to miss two games earlier this season), appears very likely to miss this one as well.

OSU HC Ryan Day refused to disclose a timeline for JSN’s return this week, only saying he was optimistic that Smith-Njigba wouldn’t be out for a prolonged period of time. Day became a bit clearer when speaking to JSN’s availability for this weekend: “It’s a long season. I don’t think we want to move forward until we all feel really good about everything.”

If Smith-Njigba is out, the Buckeyes’ aerial attack obviously downgrades a bit. And you’d have to imagine it would encourage a more run-heavy game script, particularly in this matchup as a 40-plus point favorite.

Rutgers plays good, fundamental defense. The Scarlet Knights rank No. 2 in PFF tackling and No. 5 in PFF run defense grade. That gives hope that Rutgers can prevent OSU RB TreVeyon Henderson from going ballistic.

Day’s prerogative is to bag the win and turn the page as quickly as possible to prevent further injuries. And for whatever it’s worth, Day and Schiano are friends from their days of serving together on the Buckeyes’ staff. Day seizes every opportunity the media gives him to praise Schiano. If and when the game is no longer in doubt, don’t expect Day to try to embarrass Schiano in the fourth quarter by running it up.

Pick: Rutgers +41

  • Thor Nystrom

Baylor (-1.5) vs. Oklahoma State

Last year, these teams played twice, once in the regular season and once in the Big 12 title. In those two games, OSU QB Spencer Sanders averaged 219.5 passing yards per game, threw for one touchdown, and was intercepted seven times. Let me repeat: Spencer Sanders was intercepted seven times in those two games.

In the second one, the Big 12 championship game, the Pokes were so spooked by Sanders throwing into HC Dave Aranda’s defense that Sanders averaged a mere 1.7 air yards per attempt. But despite that hyper-risk-averse strategy, Sanders couldn’t help himself from throwing the ball to the defense.

If you go back to the game these schools played in the 2020 COVID season, Aranda’s first year at Baylor, a rebuilding season where the Bears stunk (2-7) and Oklahoma State was good (8-3), Sanders threw three TD and two interceptions in a blowout Okie State win. In sum, that gives Sanders a 4/9 TD/INT rate in three games against Baylor.

As a Baylor source texted me this week: “Aranda has Spencer Sanders in a blender.”

For all Sanders’ ability, his bugaboo has always been that he’s too easy to fool into blunders. Get pressure on him, confuse him with coverage looks, and watch what happens. Baylor accounted for nine of Sanders’ 20 total interceptions between 2020-2021. It was no fluke.

Oklahoma State has struggled to run the ball without RB Jaylen Warren (No. 110 rushing success rate), and its defense is down after losing a ton of talent to the NFL and DC Jim Knowles to Ohio State.

OSU’s offense is being propped up by the passing attack, ranking in the top 10 nationally in both success rate and efficiency. Let me ask you something: What are the odds that continues on Saturday with Spencer Sanders throwing into a Dave Aranda defense?

Pick: Baylor -1.5

  • Thor Nystrom

Arizona (-17.5) vs Colorado

Last week I made the mistake of taking the under in the Cal vs. Arizona game, but this is where we can learn from my mistake. I thought that maybe Cal had caught Notre Dame on a bad week, but instead, they really clicked, putting up 49 on the Wildcats and are off to a great 3-1 start with unbelievable freshman RB Jaydn Ott. In that loss for Arizona, we also saw QB Jayden De Laura go off for 402 yards passing, and WR Jacob Cowing had seven receptions for 133 yards and a TD. These transfers are starting to hum! Arizona ranks 22nd in passing and averages over 28 points per game for the first time since 2018.

Colorado actually ranks ninth in passing yards against this season, but it’s not because they have a great pass defense as they grade out at 130th in coverage, according to PFF. Colorado ranks ninth because no one has to pass on them. They have given up rushing totals of 275 vs. TCU, 435 to Air Force, 334 to Minnesota, and 249 to UCLA. Air Force completed one pass and beat Colorado by 31 points. Opposing QBs have a 71.5% completion rate which puts them only behind Oregon, Bowling Green, and Charlotte.

Colorado has averaged under 12 points per game with a season-high of 17. They haven’t crossed 350 yards in any of their four games and have allowed 11 sacks. Arizona isn’t where they want to be yet, but they are good enough to beat Colorado by 17.5 or more.

Bet: Arizona (-17.5)

  • Scott Bogman

#4 Michigan (-10.5) @ Iowa and UNDER 42.5

I feel like this is going to be a gross slow Big 10 style of game. Lots of punts and defense as this game matches up the #1 and #2 ranked defenses according to PFF.  The offensive issues for Iowa have been well-documented, specifically the safety-safety-FG game against South Dakota State in the home opener. Iowa has stepped it up in their last two games, though, going over 330 yards against Nevada, scoring 27 points against them, and 27 again against Rutgers last week. These scoring outputs have been a bit of a mirage. Nevada is just rough overall, and even in the win, they still allowed the Wolf Pack to lead in Time of Possession and converted less than 50% of their 3rd-down opportunities. In the win over Rutgers, Iowa still was 1/9 on 3rd down, passed for less than 150 yards, and two of their three touchdowns were on defense.

Michigan is way better on offense, but everything works through their run game. Blake Corum is leading the country in rushing touchdowns with 9, is seventh in rushing yards, and is third in yards per rush among players with 50 carries or more. Iowa is sixth against the run, allowing less than 75 yards per game, and the high total against them was 129 in the 10-7 loss to Iowa State.  

I’m trying to thread the needle here for sure. I want a team to win by double-digits and keep the total under 43. Iowa could be so inept offensively that they turn the ball over more than a couple of times. Still, Michigan has only forced six on the year, and they’ve played three of the most inept offenses in the nation with wins against Hawai’i, UConn, and Colorado State. Half of those six turnovers came against Maryland last week, so even the really bad offenses only gave up three combined.

Michigan will have a tough time running the ball and might be without their second-leading rusher, Donovan Edwards. Iowa can force some turnovers themselves, but I think at the end of the day, this is a 24-10 Michigan win where they pull away at the end. Indeed, 27-14 still gets the job done on both ends, as does 31-10.  Gross and low scoring sound like a Big 10 matchup to me!

Bet: Under 42.5

  • Scott Bogman

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