College Football Week 5 Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Under-the-Radar Plays (2022)
Week 4 was our first week under .500, and an easy scapegoat is a team that’s doomed us all year… the Georgia State Panthers. Yes, Georgia State came up small again, getting blown out by Coastal Carolina last Thursday.
And after our largest under-the-radar card of the season, the board isn’t exactly speaking to me this week. But all winning tickets cash the same, so let’s get into our Week 5 plays.
2022 season record: 7-6-2
UT-San Antonio Roadrunners (-4) at Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders | Total 63
Kickoff: Friday, 7:30 ET
We start by fading one of the biggest surprise stories from Week 4. Did you know Middle Tennessee State walked into Miami and beat the Hurricanes by two touchdowns? It was an impressive win, no doubt. But it also sets up an enormous letdown spot for the Blue Raiders, who have probably been riding high since Saturday.
Led by quarterback Frank Harris, the Roadrunners possess one of the most high-powered passing games in the country. UTSA ranks sixth in the nation with an average of 351.5 passing yards per game. The Roadrunners should throw all over a Middle Tennessee secondary that ranks 89th in pass defense.
Middle Tennessee’s top 25 run defense won’t be as big of a factor in this matchup. Their best shot in this game will be to find success on the ground against a Roadrunners defense that ranks 122nd against the run. The problem is the Blue Raiders have averaged just 112 rushing yards per game this year, which ranks 110th.
UTSA has also played a stronger schedule, facing Houston, Army, and Texas this season. In contrast, the Blue Raiders have beaten Tennessee State and a miserable Colorado State in addition to Miami.
Take this opportunity to get the better Roadrunners at a cheaper price.
The pick: UTSA -4.5, play to -6 (-110 on FanDuel)
Michigan State Spartans at Maryland Terrapins (-7.5) | Total 60.5
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 ET
Maybe I’m just chasing my own tail with Michigan State. But once again, this feels like a buy-low spot on a Spartans program that I’m not giving up on.
The Spartans have struggled mightily to sustain drives and move the ball in losses to Washington and Minnesota. But both of those programs possess strong defenses. Maryland isn’t exactly a defensive powerhouse, ranking 78th against the run and 98th against the pass.
Plus, Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa and leading receiver Rakim Jarrett are both game-time decisions due to injuries. I repeat: This isn’t pretty. But I’d expect maximum effort from a Spartans team looking to save its season.
The pick: Michigan State +7.5 (-105 on FanDuel)
Northwestern Wildcats at Penn State Nittany Lions (-25.5) | Total 52
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 ET
Now it’s going to get ugly. For those who don’t live in Chicago like I do and probably rarely follow Northwestern football, the Wildcats have followed up their season-opening win over Nebraska with home losses to Duke, Southern Illinois (FCS), and most recently, Miami (Ohio).
That is disgusting. But this is the spot where Pat Fitzgerald’s bunch thrives. Since Fitzgerald’s first year in 2006, the Wildcats are 33-21 ATS as an away underdog and 14-7 against the number in this situation since 2015.
The point is Fitzgerald is an expert at uglifying up games against far superior opponents on paper. If Northwestern does have an advantage in this game, it’s through the air. The Wildcats actually rank 20th nationally in passing offense, averaging 304.8 yards per game through the air. They could find some success against a Penn State secondary that ranks 112th in pass defense.
Shop around for the best number, as some sportsbooks have this line as high as -27. But hold your nose and hope for some more Northwestern nonsense against ranked opponents.
The pick: Northwestern +25.5, play to +24 (-110 on FanDuel)
Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona Wildcats (-16.5) | Total 57
Kickoff: Saturday, 9:30 ET
Speaking of ugly, how about a bet on the winless Colorado Buffaloes, who have lost every game this season by at least 25 points? Is that something you might be interested in?
Unfortunately, I am interested in backing the Buffs here. Arizona is 2-2 and showing signs of growth as a program in year two under Jedd Fisch. However, the Wildcats haven’t looked like a team that should be laying over two touchdowns in any scenario. Heck, Arizona hasn’t been favored once all season, and that includes a game against FCS power North Dakota State.
The look-ahead line last week was Arizona -10. The current line is an overreaction to Colorado’s 28-point loss to UCLA. Maybe the Buffs really are this awful, but I’m willing to pay to find out.
The pick: Colorado +16.5 (-105 on FanDuel)
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