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College Football Week 5 Picks & Predictions: Bogman’s Best Bets

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It's time to take what we've learned this College Football season and start stacking some wins!

Michigan is beating teams up and sitting on the ball. Wyoming and Missouri burned me before, but I'm hoping to get my money back this week by backing them. The more the season rolls on, the more we uncover about these teams, and we're starting to see some trends.

Here's what I'm thinking for College Football Week 5.

College Football Week 5 Picks & Predictions

Week 4 Record: 5-5 | 2023 Record: 19-21 | Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

#2 Michigan @ Nebraska

Michigan is 0-4 against the spread this season, but they have also controlled the clock and played to the Under in every single game. Nebraska has also played four games, and only one of them has gone over the total as well. 39 is a tough total to go under, but these defenses have both been so good I'm going to risk it, as I feel like Michigan will stomp Nebraska.

Michigan is currently No. 1 in the country in points allowed per game at 5.8, 13th in rushing yards allowed (80 YPG), seventh in passing defense (151 YPG) and third in total YPG Allowed (231 YPG). Nebraska runs the ball a lot. They are top 15 in rush attempts per game and will be running into the brick wall of the Wolverine’s defense. Michigan ranks third in rush defense, according to PFF, and has two top-15 graded run defenders on the defensive in Braiden McGregor and Kris Jenkins.

Nebraska has been strong against the run as well, currently sitting second in the country against the run, allowing less than 50 YPG. While Nebraska hasn't played any overly strong teams yet, Minnesota has put up rushing totals of 296 vs. EMU, 170 vs. UNC and 244 vs. NW after being held to only 55 by Nebraska in Week 1. I don't think Michigan will have a bad game rushing, but maybe it takes a quarter or two to get rolling like it did against ECU and Rutgers.

Nebraska is 103rd in scoring offense, and I feel like they will go to another notch on the belt of Michigan, who hasn't allowed more than seven points to anyone. We've also seen Michigan be content to sit on a lead and bleed the clock late, as they've only scored once in the fourth quarter through their first four games. Michigan will get up in the third and chew clock again as the stadium empties out in the fourth. Michigan might be 0-4 ATS so far, but they've also won every game by at least 24 points. I don't see the script changing against a struggling Nebraska squad. Go Blue!

Bet: Michigan -17 (-110) & UNDER 39.5 (-110)

New Mexico @ Wyoming

This is 100% the eye test for me. I've seen Wyoming play two games so far this season, and they've been very impressive. I watched Wyoming take down Texas Tech in Week 1 of the season, where they showed that the offense was much improved over the 2022 season. I also watched Wyoming play Texas, and they were really good until the fourth quarter, when Texas wore them down and scored three TDs late.

New Mexico has been terrible on defense, ranking below 100 in PPG allowed, 95th in passing YPG and rushing YPG allowed. FCS Tennessee Tech couldn't do much against the Lobos in Week 2 and only had 280 total yards and just under 100 rushing. But the FBS teams New Mexico has played have averaged just under 170 rushing yards against them. Wyoming will pile up yards with transfer RB Harrison Waylee, who went over 100 in his first two games with the Cowboys.  

New Mexico isn't as bad on offense as on defense, but Wyoming is a strong defensive team. Unlike the Texas game, where they kept them in check until the fourth quarter, the Texas Tech game was the opposite. They got beat early in the first and held Tech to only 10 points until OT. Last week was a bit of a disaster against App State. Still, even though the Mountaineers had the ball for over 40 minutes, Wyoming held them to four FG attempts, and the only TD App State scored was on defense.  

Wyoming will control the clock, and they play a slow, boring pace at 111th in plays per game. Wyoming is playing at home in the elevation, too. There aren't many things pointing New Mexico's way. Give me the Cowboys big in this one!

Bet: Wyoming -14 (-110)

#23 Missouri @ Vanderbilt

Missouri got me a couple of weeks ago. They upset Kansas State on a walk-off 61-yard FG. Missouri beat Memphis last week and finds themselves ranked at #23! Vanderbilt just got handled by Kentucky at home and is 0-4 against the spread this season. I may have been wrong on Missouri last week, but I was right about picking on Vandy last week. I'll let Missouri win my money back this go-around.

The injury report isn't great for either team this week. Missouri has starting QB Brady Cook and star WR Luther Burden listed as questionable. Cook was listed as questionable last week, and Burden is expected to be good enough to go. Aria Gerson of the Tennessean said that Vanderbilt HC Clark Lea 'didn't sound optimistic' that starting QB AJ Swann will be able to play, but he hasn't been ruled out yet. Ken Seals is the backup, and while he has experience, Swann leads the country in PFF’s 'Big time throw' stat and is in the top 15 in BTT%. Meanwhile, Seals was tied for the most Turnover Worthy Plays (another PFF stat) in 2020, was benched in 2021 and didn't play in 2022.  

With Vanderbilt most likely down their only advantage on offense in Swann, I think Missouri will roll right over them. I'll acknowledge that this is a classic look-ahead spot for Missouri, with LSU coming next week. However, I feel like it won't matter. We likely see backup Missouri QB Sam Horn in this game at some point, but he was a top-10 QB recruit in 2022. I think he'll be able to move the ball if called upon. Give me the Tigers big against a Vandy team that hasn't covered once this season!

Bet: Missouri -13.5 (-110)

Other Bets I Like:

  • Jacksonville State -6.5 @ Sam Houston (-110)
  • Louisville -3.5 @ NC State (-110) 
  • #8 USC -21.5 @ Colorado (-110) 
  • #6 Penn State @ Northwestern OVER 46 (-110) 
  • Illinois @ Purdue UNDER 53.5 (-110) 
  • Arizona State +12.5 @ California (-110) 

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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