Top College Football Week 5 Picks & Predictions (2024)
College football betting expert Scott Bogman will provide his top picks and predictions for each and every week of CFB action. Let’s get ready for this weekend’s games with Bogman’s best college football bets for Week 5. Check out all of his top picks and predictions below.
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College Football Week 5 Picks & Predictions
Michigan vs. Minnesota
The Wolverines will run the ball, and Minnesota was run all over last week (272 rushing yards allowed against Iowa). Minnesota is 56th in Rush yards allowed on the season (124 YPG) and grade 69th against the run. Michigan may be very one-dimensional on offense, but it only took 62 yards passing by Iowa last week to beat Minnesota at home. Points may not come as easy for Michigan but the real issue for Minnesota is moving the ball on Michigan. Michigan is still in the Top 10 in Overall Defensive grade on PFF (with games against Texas and USC) and 22nd in Defensive Team Performance. Minnesota is statistically below average in scoring, passing, rushing and grade slightly above average overall. Minnesota will have a hard time moving the ball, Michigan will bully them in the run game just like Iowa did, and this one will be slow (Michigan 113th in plays per game, Minnesota 120th). The value is on Michigan and the Under in this one.
Pick: Michigan -9 & Under 36.5
Colorado vs. UCF
The high pace of these offenses and the games they both played last week were nice, but this total shows a lot of value for the Under. The total will likely decrease as cash has shifted heavily toward the under, but tickets remain slightly on the Over. Colorado is a strong passing team, and UCF isn't particularly great in coverage, but they do have a strong pass rush grade. UCF has only 1 sack on the season, but they grade in the top 25 on PFF, and Colorado has allowed the most sacks in the country this year. Colorado has given up sack totals of 1, 6, 1 and 8 this season, Nebraska put up 6 and held them to 10 points while Baylor had 8 last week and had held them to 24 points before the Hail Mary and Overtime. UCF didn't record a sack against TCU in 52 pass attempts, likely because QB Josh Hoover has the 7th lowest time to throw, getting the ball out in 2.24 seconds. Sheduer Sanders holds the ball just a little bit longer at 2.93 seconds but the difference has him at 112th out of 153 QBs and has led to 16 sacks taken. UCF runs at an enormous 66.1% rate, and Colorado has been just ok against the run, but the DL is their strongest unit on defense. There will still be a lot of scoring in this game, but there is plenty of wiggle room to allow points and still stay under.
Pick: Under 65
Georgia Southern vs. Georgia State
The offenses in this rivalry game both pass the ball over 50% but Georgia Southern passes over 63% of the time. The offense’s high passing rate is important because these teams rank 112th (Georgia State – 258.7) and 125th (Georgia Southern -286.3) in Passing Yards Allowed per game. Georgia Southern has a top 25 grade in Coverage this season but is 130th in rushing yards allowed, 133rd in rushing yards allowed per attempt, has given up the 7th most 10+ yards runs, and grades 114th in Run Defense. State will run, and Southern will throw in this one, both with success. This game has exceeded 70 points two seasons in a row, and the system expects that trend to continue.
Pick: Over 58
Georgia vs. Alabama
The value shown towards Alabama in this game is starting to get some backing from the public as the cash has slightly shifted toward them. Carson Beck hasn't been quite the same this season as he was last season, and Milroe looks improved. Last season, Beck was 4th in Adjusted Completion percentage, Milroe was 56th, and this season, they are tied at 44th. Carson Beck hasn't changed much, as he had a low ADOT last season and this season, but the talent in his targets is not playing up to last season's standards. Brock Bowers (22nd) and Ladd McConkey (44th) were both top 50 graded targets (PFF Rec Grade) for Georgia last season, and this year Dominic Lovett (114th) and Dillon Bell (164th) are both post-100. Georgia also has more injuries to deal with as OL Tate Ratledge, WR London Humphreys, and RB Roderick Robinson II are all out, and three more players are listed as questionable. Alabama gets S Malachi Moore back and has three players listed as probable. Alabama won't come by points easily, but they are at home, dealing with fewer injuries, have made more big plays, and are getting points. This will be a close game with the wrong team favored according to the system.
Pick: Alabama +2.5