Bogman’s College Football Week 6 Best Bets & Predictions (2022)
Bogman is back with his Week 6 predictions and suggested best bets.
Week 5 Record: 8-2
2022 Season Record: 34-16
#4 Michigan (-22.5) @ Indiana and OVER 58.5
We took Michigan last week, and it worked, so we are going to ride again! The most impressive part of the Michigan victory last week to me was the offense dominating Iowa! Iowa only had 1 sack and no turnovers for a defense that had utterly dominated everyone they played. Michigan had a balanced account that went for over 300 yards, and RB Blake Corum rushed for 133 yards which no team had hit against Iowa before this game. QB J.J. McCarthy was efficient, going 18/24 for 155 yards and a TD.
Michigan did all of this against a top-tier defense in Iowa, and Indiana is on the other end of the scale. The Indiana defense is giving up an average of 30 points per game, ranks 118th in passing yards allowing 277.8 YPG, and allows over 142 rushing yards per game, ranking 69th. Michigan is 6th in the country in PPG, averaging 45.4 PPG, and are averaging just over 30 PPG in their two games against Power 5 teams (who both have better defenses than Indiana, IMO).
The biggest mismatch in this game is on the other side of the ball. Indiana has been a bit one-sided on offense with a strong passing game, ranking 33rd in the country behind transfer QB Connor Bazelak. The problem is they can't run the ball efficiently, they rank 116th in rushing total and 110th in YPC. The lack of a respectable run game will make 2nd and 3rd long, bad news for an offensive line that ranks in the bottom 15 of pass blocking by PFF's metrics. Michigan has 15 sacks from 11 different players, and I expect it to be a long day for Bazelak. Michigan will have to do the heavy lifting on the score, but I see this as a 52-14 or 49-21 type of game that Michigan should dominate!
Pick: Michigan -22.5 (-120) AND Over 58.5 (-110)
#21 Washington (-13.5) @ Arizona State
Arizona State seems pretty lost, which isn't surprising to anyone paying attention to their recent storylines. Head Coach Herm Edwards was fired after the embarrassing loss at home to Eastern Michigan, and while the opponents haven't been easy, Utah and USC, the Sun Devils haven't shown much fight. UCLA beat Washington State by harassing QB Michael Penix and converting 3rd downs. The blueprint is there, but it’s doubtful to me that ASU can pull it off.
Washington only allowed 2 sacks to UCLA but allowed a season-high 15 pressures against, their previous season high was 8 against FCS Portland State. Arizona State has the 2nd fewest sacks in the country so far this season, with only 3. The Bruins converted 10/14 first downs against Washington, which is probably a little fluky, but the Bruins are one of only 19 teams in FBS with a 3rd down conversion rate of 50% or better. Arizona State has converted only 20 of 59 3rd downs on the season, ranking them 104th in the nation. The one game the Sun Devils converted 50% of 3rd downs was last week against USC, a game they lost by 17 points.
The bigger issue I see for ASU is the offense as they rank well below average statistically, 104th in scoring, 91st in passing, and 77th in rushing. PFF also grades them below average in every single offensive stat that they grade. Washington is right around average to below average on defense, but Arizona State just doesn't have the offense to take advantage. QB Emory Jones has been ok but still only has 4 passing TDs over ASU's 5 games. Jones also only has 5 turnover-worthy plays, according to PFF but also only 3 big-time throws. Washington can be beaten, UCLA proved that, but ASU isn't going to be the team to even come close, in my opinion. The on-field obstacles are too big, not to mention the coaching changes. I think the Huskies dominate this one!
Pick: Washington -13.5 (-115)
#9 Ole Miss (-16.5) @ Vanderbilt and UNDER 61.5
Vanderbilt is a very improved team overall, but they are still at the bottom of the SEC and aren't ready to compete with the top teams in the SEC, as evidenced by the 55-3 beating Bama put on them two weeks ago. Vandy has some dominant wins over Hawai'i, Elon, and Northern Illinois but has been pounded by the two P5 opponents they've played so far in Wake Forest (45-25) and Alabama. Vandy has established itself as a run-first offense behind transfer RB Ray Davis and even ranks top 25 in PFFs run grade.
Mississippi has been a bit bipolar in run defense this season which has given them middling statistics and grades against the run this season. Tulsa, who beat the spread and made the game close against Ole Miss, ran for 262 yards against Ole Miss. Tulsa ran the ball 43 times and had some big chunk runs of 47 and two of 17, making up 31% of that total. This doesn't scare me because Ole Miss fixed the issue last week against Kentucky, holding the Wildcats to 108 rushing yards on 37 attempts.
While the run game could be an issue for Ole Miss, the rest of the game is a mismatch. Ole Miss hasn't been crisp passing the ball, and transfer QB Jaxson Dart has been anything but sharp so far, but Vandy doesn't pressure QBs enough. Vandy only has seven sacks on the season and ranks dead last in pass rush grade from PFF. The biggest issue that Vandy is facing is the Ole Miss run game. The Rebs have a season-low of 186 rushing yards, and that was against a ranked opponent last week in Kentucky. Ole Miss has gone over 300 yards rushing twice, and the only team that Vandy has held to under 150 yards was Hawai'i in Week 1 when they got up 38-10 early in the 3rd, and Hawai'i ended up with 55 pass attempts and only ran 26 times. The extra week to prep might help Vandy for a little bit, but once Ole Miss starts running downhill, they'll be hard to stop. Once again, I'm threading the needle a little bit, laying the points and taking the under, but I think the run-first identity of both teams will lead to burning the clock, and I don't think Vandy will score much at all. I see this as a Rebs Win in the neighborhood of 35-10 or 42-17, which would hit both sides. The public money is on our side, too, so let's ride with them and add to the W column!
Bet: Ole Miss -16.5 (-115) and Under 61.5 (-106)
Other Bets I Like:
- Texas vs Oklahoma UNDER 65.5 (-108)
- Troy (-6.5) vs Southern Miss (-110)
- #5 Clemson (-20.5) @ Boston College (-110)
- #7 OK State vs Texas Tech UNDER 69.5 (-112)
- #2 Georgia vs Auburn OVER 49.5 (-105)
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