College Football Week 6: Early Lines, Odds, & Predictions

Alabama and Georgia stole the show in terms of entertainment value during Week 5 of the 2024 college football season. Alabama QB Jalen Milroe and WR Ryan Williams made a spectacular connection after the Bulldogs erased a huge deficit late in the fourth quarter, pulling off the outright win as home underdogs in a back-and-forth shootout in Tuscaloosa.

Other notable top-25 performances included No. 6 Ole Miss losing outright to Kentucky at home, 20-17, while No. 10 Utah also lost at home, falling 23-10 without QB Cam Rising against Arizona. No. 16 Notre Dame built a huge lead in the first quarter to beat No. 15 Louisville 31-24, while No. 21 Oklahoma outscored Auburn 17-7 in the fourth quarter to win by six points.

No. 9 Penn State won a low-scoring affair against No. 19 Illinois 21-7, No. 23 Kansas State bounced back with a strong 42-20 rout of No. 20 Oklahoma State, while No. 7 Miami avoided a huge upset against Virginia Tech on a controversial final play, outscoring the Hokies 21-10 in the second half to win 38-34.

Week 5 saw us go 2-2 with my Week 5 best bets, eking out a bit of profit thanks to Alabama moneyline cashing at plus odds. Let’s continue to improve in Week 6 with my latest line movement analysis to place four winning wagers on the Week 6 college football slate.

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College Football Early Line Movement: Week 6

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Away	Home	Open Spread	Current Spread	Open Total	Current Total	Spread +/-	Total +/-
Michigan State	Oregon	-26.5	-24	52	52.5	+1.5	+0.5
Missouri	Texas A&M	-2	-2	49	48.5	0	-0.5
Michigan	Washington	+2	-3	40.5	41.5	-5	+1
Miami (FL)	Cal	+14	+10	55.5	54.5	-4	-1

Michigan State vs. Oregon (6)

Friday night games have been utter chaos in college football this season. Most of these games have come down to the wire, but we may see a much more lopsided affair between Michigan State and Oregon in Eugene on Friday. Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel leads the FBS in completion percentage at 80.7 percent, while Michigan State is allowing a 62.9 percent completion rate to opposing quarterbacks.

The Ducks’ defense shouldn’t struggle much against the Spartans’ offense, which has been highly turnover-prone, averaging 3 offensive turnovers per game this season, fifth-most in the FBS. The point spread has shifted down from -26.5 to -24 toward Michigan State, while the point total has moved up a tick from 52 to 52.5. Oregon failed to cover against UCLA last week, scoring only six points in the second half after going into halftime up 28-10.

We’ve seen the Ducks’ defense improve substantially, faring well in back-to-back road games. The Spartans are a young team that fights hard but miscues have plagued them under a new regime. Let’s back Oregon to cover at -24 on the point spread, taking advantage of the dip from -26.5 to -24.

Best Bet: Oregon -24 (-112)

Missouri (7) vs. Texas A&M (25)

Missouri survived a scare against Boston College in Week 3 and nearly lost to Vanderbilt in Week 4, managing to remain undefeated. Now, the Tigers are coming off of a bye week and will play their first road game against a rejuvenated Texas A&M offense, led by QB Marcel Reed.

The Aggies won a tight game on a neutral field against a quality Arkansas team in Week 5 on a neutral field, holding the Razorbacks to 3.3 YPC and a 56 percent completion rate. They won the game due to winning the turnover battle, forcing three and committing none on offense.

Missouri has been mostly mistake-free on offense and yet they still nearly lost back-to-back home games as big favorites against the spread. The Tigers are led by QB Brady Cook and have a strong wide receiving corps, while leaning on a heavy dose of runs to keep their opponents off balance.

If Missouri can continue to avoid turnovers on offense, which the Aggies’ defense specializes in forcing, then they should be able to hang in this game and cover +2 on the road, especially with an extra week of rest and practice to prepare. The point spread hasn’t moved at all from +2, so let’s take the points with Missouri during their first road game against a stout SEC defense.

Best Bet: Missouri +2 (-108)

Michigan (10) vs. Washington

Michigan jumped out to an early lead but allowed Minnesota to ruin their -9.5 point cover late in the game at home in Week 5. The Wolverines are set to play their first road game of 2024 against an underrated Washington Huskies team that somehow found a way to lose to Rutgers despite outplaying the Scarlet Knights in most offensive metrics, excluding field goal conversions.

Michigan’s defense is built to stop the run, while its offense struggles to move the ball through the air. The Huskies run defense is susceptible to big plays, which is why they struggled against Rutgers’ run-centric attack, so they’ll face similar challenges against running backs Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards on Saturday night.

Washington’s pass offense is talented, but Rutgers’ secondary, among the best in the nation, held them to low production. Conversely, Michigan’s pass defense allows a 60.8 percent completion rate, allowing two receiving touchdowns per game on average this season, putting them in the bottom-25 of 134 FBS programs.

At home, Washington should find a way to make this game competitive, in a potentially high-scoring contest, since Michigan’s offense will be able to run the football, while Washington’s offense will create explosives in the pass game to score quickly. Let’s bet a unit on over 41.5 total points to be scored.

Best Bet: Over 41.5 Total Points (-105)

Miami (FL) (8) vs. California

The night cap on Saturday’s main slate features No. 8 Miami playing on the West Coast against Cal. The Golden Bears are 3-1 and rely on their defense to grind out wins, while their offense does just enough to keep them competitive.

Miami is led by the talented transfer QB, Cam Ward, who remains among the betting favorites to win the 2024 Heisman Trophy award. The Hurricanes fell into a big deficit at home against Virginia Tech a week ago and held on for a 38-34 win after mounting a late comeback, surviving a potential game-winning reception from the Hokies on the final play.

Cal is allowing a 51.5 percent completion rate and 3.2 YPC against its opponents, finally losing outright 14-9 to Florida State on the road in Week 4. Now, coming off  a bye week, the Golden Bears’ defense should play well against Ward, limiting him in the passing game, forcing Miami to run the football, which they’ve also done extremely well in 2024.

Cal’s offense won’t have a ton of success against the ‘Canes, but Miami was gashed by Virginia Tech for 6.4 YPC, so expect a heavy dose of the run game from the Golden Bears to churn clock and pick up first downs. Ultimately, I believe this will be a lower-scoring matchup, which is why the point total moved down from 55.5 to 54.5. Let’s back under 54.5 total points before it gets any lower.

Best Bet: Under 54.5 Total Points (-108)