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College Football Week 6 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Miami (FL) vs. UNC (2022)

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Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 6 odds, picks, and predictions for this week’s game: Miami (FL) vs. UNC.

Here are other game previews for Week 6:

And check out our other Week 6 College Football betting content:

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 6 College Football Power Rankings >>

College Football Week 6 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Miami (FL) vs. UNC

Miami (FL) vs. UNC

My system absolutely loves the over in this game, and I'm going along for the ride. The market seems to be a bit down on UNC's offense after the Notre Dame loss and is, of course, way down on Miami's following the MTSU loss. Sharp bettors also may be bracing for a weather game: Current forecasts call for 16 mph during gametime, with a decent chance of precipitation.

All of this may have opened a window of value for us. Wind affects point totals, but not to the degree that ATT shows value on the over. For both offenses, this is an awesome get-right opportunity. UNC's offense has scored 35 points or more in all five games. It ranks top-5 in both explosiveness and finishing drives.

Miami has consistently been burned by big plays. The Hurricanes rank No. 118 in defensive explosion. It'll be strength-on-weakness when UNC's top-10 passing offense throws into Miami's No. 129 SP+-rated pass defense.

On the other side, Miami hasn't generated explosive plays all season. But they've shown an ability to move the ball between the 20s, and the offensive line has played well. The lack of points in scoring opportunities - see Texas A&M game - won't be a problem against UNC's defense, one of the most generous in the nation.

Miami's offensive line - a bright spot so far - will manhandle UNC's defensive front. That'll keep the Canes on schedule throughout the game. And against UNC's rotten secondary (No. 110 PFF coverage grade), expect a get-right game for QB Tyler Van Dyke. Van Dyke, who came into this season as an R1 hopeful, was benched against MTSU.

Miami has had two weeks to prepare after last week's bye. I expect a big bounce-back from the Canes' offense. The game’s outcome could go either way, but I expect the winner to prevail in a shootout.

Pick: OVER 65.5

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.

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