College Football Week 6 Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
Gear up for another awesome weekend of college football action with BettingPros! We’ll have you covered with all of our top picks for the week along with our projected spreads and totals to help guide your college football bets. Below are our top picks and predictions for Week 6’s college football games.
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Top College Football Odds & Picks: Week 6
Utah State vs. Boise State
This spread opened at 28 points, and it has since dropped to 27. Maybe bettors are scared about a four-touchdown spread, but there is nothing that says the Aggies can remain even remotely close in this game. Their only win of the season came over Robert Morris. Every other team they’ve faced has scored at least 38 points against them. The Broncos are currently averaging 45.0 points per game. They may end up scoring more than 50 in this game, just like they did two weeks ago. The Broncos’ defense isn’t great, but the Aggies’ offense has been putrid all season. They were shut out earlier this season by USC. Don’t be surprised if you see a similar result this week.
Pick: Boise State -27
-Phil Wood
Missouri vs. Texas A&M
Missouri enters the game undefeated, with its best wins coming against Boston College and Vanderbilt (yes, Vanderbilt). They are higher ranked at No. 9 than the Aggies (No. 25), but Texas A&M is favored despite a 4-1 record. This game will be a war of attrition as both teams like to run the ball on offense but are also very good at defending the run. Missouri has an edge at quarterback and wide receiver should the passing game come into play. A&M’s Marcel Reed is athletic and capable but inexperienced, and not as accurate as Cook in the passing game. But don’t expect a lot of passing in this game. Expect a run-heavy, my defensive front is better than your defensive front, low-scoring affair.
Pick: UNDER 48
-Travis Pulver
Navy vs. Air Force
Air Force has won the last four between the two service academies, but the Falcons are a different team this year. With only five starts back from last year’s squad, the Air Force has been in full rebuild mode, and it’s shown on the field. They struggle to throw the ball (one of the worst in the country), but they are not bad (or great) at running it. On the defensive side, they are on the field way too much. Navy comes into the game undefeated with a top-five rushing attack and a passing game that is surprisingly capable for a service academy. Defensively, they have been vulnerable against the pass this year. But the stats may paint that kind of picture because teams have played catch-up a lot. Air Force may put up a fight for a half since this is a rivalry game, but Navy will eventually pull away and win big.
Pick: Navy -9.5
-Travis Pulver
Auburn vs. Georgia
Their record is not good at 2-3, but Auburn is not a bad team. The offense is capable of moving the ball, more so with the run than the pass, but they have a pretty significant fault—turnovers. Their QBs have combined for nine interceptions in four games, along with six fumbles. It doesn’t matter how well you move the ball if you don’t hang on to it long enough to score points. Georgia, despite its faults, is good enough to take advantage of any and all turnovers. Couple that with the desire for retribution following the comeback and loss to Alabama last week, and it will be a long day for the Tigers.
Pick: Georgia -22.5
-Travis Pulver
Ole Miss vs. South Carolina
Can the Gamecocks pull off the upset on Saturday? The Rebels are fresh off a 20-17 loss to Kentucky, a team the Gamecocks beat by 25 points earlier this season. Aside from last week’s game, the Rebels have played nobody this season. They beat Wake Forest 40-6 in Winston-Salem, but the Demon Deacons are bad this year. Jaxson Dart has great numbers this season, but he fell back down to earth last week against SEC competition. With this game being played in South Carolina, the spread is simply too large. The Gamecocks average 192.3 rushing yards per game. Look for them to have success in this game, keep the clock running, and potentially pull off the upset.
Pick: South Carolina +9.5
-Phil Wood
West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State
Both of these teams have gotten off to disappointing starts to the season. However, it’s Oklahoma State that has really put itself behind the eight-ball in the Big 12 race with losses to Utah and Kansas State in consecutive weeks. There are plenty of reasons for Oklahoma State’s struggles, most notably bad QB play from Alan Bowman, which is heightened by the Cowboys’ lackluster rushing game. Despite having NFL Draft prospect Ollie Gordon in the backfield, the Pokes rank 104th in rushing yards per attempt. I’m also just not confident in Bowman to take advantage of a pretty poor West Virginia pass defense. Conversely, the Mountaineers should be able to get whatever they want against a Cowboys defense that ranks 119th against the run and 96th against the pass. It feels like the season is snowballing for Mike Gundy’s squad. Plus, West Virginia arrives in Stillwater off a bye while Oklahoma State could be physically and mentally fatigued after back-to-back losses in pivotal conference clashes. I’ll take the Mountaineers on the spread, and don’t mind sprinkling the moneyline.
Pick: West Virginia +3
-Matt Barbato
Kansas vs. Arizona State
There is something awfully fishy about this line. Kansas is 0-4 against FBS opponents this season yet they sit as less than field goal underdogs to an Arizona State team that is 3-1 on the year and at home. As far as strength of schedule goes, Kansas has had a surprisingly strong field of opponents. Illinois and UNLV ended up much more competitive than previously expected. Meanwhile, Arizona State’s big non-conference opponent, Mississippi State, has not impressed in any of their outings this year. When it comes to the advanced stats like EPA per play, Arizona State ranks 27th in the nation with a very strong run offense. Defensively they’ve also been elite at stopping the run. This is bad news for a Kansas team that has moved the ball mostly on the ground this year at 5.9 yards per carry. The Jayhawks do have an opportunity to slow down a Sun Devil offense that struggled to move the ball against Texas Tech. With the game-time temperature expected to be very hot, this is a game that looks to play to the under.
Pick: UNDER 51
-Ryan Rodeman
Miami vs. California
The Hurricanes travel to the Bay Area to visit the Golden Bears for the first-ever ACC battle between the two sides. The last time these teams met was Dec. 27, 2008 in the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco, a 24-17 victory by Cal. The Golden Bears had a bye, so they’ve had two weeks to stew after a 14-9 loss at Florida State, their first setback of the season after a 3-0 start. That start included a 21-14 road win against Auburn, and a 21-point rout of San Diego State at home. Miami should feel fortunate to still be unbeaten after a controversial ending to its 38-34 win over Virginia Tech. The Hokies appeared to have a Hail Mary for touchdown, and the referees called it so on the field. However, after a lengthy review, it was overturned, sparking controversy. QB Cam Ward and company head to Berkeley hitting the Over at a 4-0-1 clip, while Cal has gone Under in all four games. We’ll focus on the points, as Miami’s team speed should help it pull away in the second half for a cover.
Pick: Miami -10
-Daniel Dobish
Tennessee vs. Arkansas
The Volunteers hit the road for Fayetteville to take on the Razorbacks. Surprisingly, these teams have met just five times since Nov. 11, 2006, with Arkansas going 4-1 SU and ATS in the five meetings, with the Under going 4-1 in the span. The Hogs were tripped up 21-17 by Texas A&M in a neutral battle last time out, but Arkansas was able to cover for the fourth time in the past five games. They’re also 2-0 ATS inside the SEC this season, while cashing low in both conference tilts. Tennessee had the week off after an emotional 25-15 road win at Oklahoma in an early-season showdown, and the Vols are 4-0 SU/ATS to date. Tennessee has managed 51 or more points in the other three games, cashing high on the total in three of four games. We’ll shy away from the total, although it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Vols get into the 50s to do most of the heavy lifting to get this total Over. However, the best bet is backing Tennessee on the road, especially if this spread stays under two touchdowns.
Pick: Tennessee -13.5
-Daniel Dobish
UCLA vs. Penn State
The UCLA Bruins are in the midst of a rebuild, but they deserve some credit for keeping it within the number as 20+ point underdogs against LSU and Oregon in consecutive weeks. The schedule doesn’t let up here, as the Bruins will travel to Happy Valley for the first time since 1967 in just the seventh all-time meeting between these programs. UCLA’s offense is a work in progress, and that’s probably putting it kindly. The Bruins are averaging less than 2.5 yards per rush and under seven yards per pass while averaging 14.8 points per game, good for 127th nationally. I wouldn’t expect much to change against Penn State, which is elite defensively. If there’s one thing UCLA does relatively well, it’s defending the run. However, the Bruins secondary, which ranks 77th in yards allowed per pass attempt, could be vulnerable against Penn State’s Drew Allar and their highly efficient passing attack. I admittedly don’t trust Penn State to cover this number, as they’ve failed to cover as favorites of at least 19.5 points in two out of three games this season, with the lone cover coming against a Kent State team that could be among the worst in the country. I also don’t love this spot for Penn State, who is coming off a primetime victory over ranked Illinois and will be traveling cross-country for a huge game against USC next week. So, instead, I’ll bet on the Penn State defense stymying this awful UCLA offense.
Pick: UCLA Team Total Under 7.5 points
-Matt Barbato
Michigan vs. Washington
Although we have a rematch of the National Championship, it doesn’t have that feeling of a big fight. Each head coach and starting quarterback from that game is no longer there, and these teams have a whole new DNA. Michigan has had no air attack as quarterback Alex Orji has had 118 passing yards in the last two games. They’re winning without an aerial attack because their defense has stepped up since the Texas loss, and Kalel Mullings is eighth in the country with 540 rushing yards. With Mississippi State transfer Will Rogers, who has a 74.8 competition rate, Washington is much better in the passing department. The Huskies can get points in a short amount of time, but will they be able to play smash-mouth football on defense? The wrong team is favored in this game, and Michigan’s physicality on both lines will help them come away with a road win.
Pick: Michigan +1.5
-John Supowitz
USC vs. Minnesota
Minnesota bounced back from an embarrassing loss to Iowa and followed it up with a cover against a Michigan team that was a double-digit favorite. Michigan got off to a big lead but wasn’t able to pull away and Minnesota rallied late to make it very close. They’ll host USC this week where they sit as big underdogs again. Against Michigan, Minnesota actually outgained the Wolverines as Michigan was unable to move the ball in the air due to their own offensive constraints and a steady rain throughout the afternoon. However, this may have been a bit of fool’s gold. Michigan was primed for a letdown spot after a big win over these Trojans the week before and Minnesota needed about three quarters to get going. This USC team is elite on both sides of the ball. After a slow start to Wisconsin, they outscored the Badgers 28-0 in the second half. They also pose a threat both running and passing against this Minnesota defense that is stout. The Gophers have taken on some steam this week, but the line has swung a bit too much and is in USC’s favor.
Pick: USC -8
-Ryan Rodeman
SMU vs. Louisville
SMU has straightened things out after a really bizarre start to the season that included a scare in Week 0 against Nevada and a loss at home to BYU. Since then, the Mustangs have outscored TCU and Florida State 108-58, and destroyed FSU in their first ACC game in program history. SMU’s next test will be a road trip to Louisville, where the Cardinals await after a close road loss to Notre Dame. The final score may be misleading, however, as you could argue Louisville was the better team last week in South Bend. The Cardinals gained 115 yards more than Notre Dame and ran 22 more plays. The difference was turnovers, as the Irish turned three Louisville miscues into 17 points. Both of these teams feature high-profile offenses that may need to rely more heavily on their quarterbacks in this game. That’s because both the Mustangs and Cardinals rank inside the top 15 nationally in run defense, but outside the top 50 in defending the pass. While I was an SMU investor in the futures market, I’m still skeptical of this coaching staff and can’t get the bad taste out of my mouth from earlier in the year. I trust Jeff Brohm far more in a bounce-back spot at home.
Pick: Louisville -6.5
-Matt Barbato
Clemson vs. Florida State
When the schedule came out, this was a matchup you put a pin on because it was supposed to be an important one in the ACC. Florida State has ruined that, thanks to a 1-4 start. DJ Uiagalelei has been a massive bust, and he could be done in Tallahassee as Brock Glenn will get the start as DJU has a hand injury. Glenn has two starts in his collegiate career: the ACC championship against Louisville and the Orange Bowl against Georgia. If Dabo Sweeney had another bad season, it could have been over for him at Clemson. The early loss to Georgia must have made him sweat, but they have taken a loss since. They will pressure a bad Florida State offensive line that has allowed 12 sacks, forcing them to throw to an excellent secondary, and Clemson will have the path to a win.
Pick: Clemson -15
-John Supowitz
Baylor vs. Iowa State
Iowa State averages only 30 minutes with the ball, but that’s because they’ve been excelling with quick drives, as they have four touchdowns on drives of one minute or less. They’ve been getting better at running the ball in the last couple of games, largely because they’ve held significant leads due to that excellent defense. This will be Baylor’s biggest test as it’s the only conference opponent currently ranked for the rest of the season. This is also as close to a must-win as possible, as they are already 0-2 in the Big 12. The Bears have a great passing offense with Sawyer Robertson, who can grab chunk yardage with this receiver group. The problem is they’ve had trouble containing offenses against a Cyclones team that can hit you a few different things and have the defense to stuff you.
Pick: Iowa State -11.5
-John Supowitz
Iowa vs. Ohio State
The Ohio State Buckeyes are perennial National Championship contenders. Despite slow starts in practically all four games, they’ve scored at least 38 points in every game this season. Meanwhile, the defense has limited opponents to below seven points a game and has allowed just 61.75 yards on the ground per game. That said, Ohio State is facing its biggest test to date. The Iowa Hawkeyes are also a terrific defense and have improved offensively. Iowa took down Minnesota on the road in Week 4, 31-14. Iowa’s offense can keep up this year, and if the Buckeyes start slow, it’ll be hard to recover enough to cover a 18.5-point spread. Ohio State should win, but a three-possession win is unlikely, even at home.
Pick: Iowa +28.5
-Jason Radowitz
Purdue vs. Wisconsin
After averaging 21.75 points per game this season, former offensive coordinator Graham Harrell was fired. Purdue is 1-3 and scored just 10 points at home against Nebraska in its first Big Ten game of the year. Purdue will now have offensive analyst Jason Simmons call plays. That said, sometimes change takes time. Other times, it rejuvenates an offense. Simmons can potentially rejuvenate this Purdue offense because they’re facing Wisconsin this week. Wisconsin has allowed nearly 200 yards in the air and another 146 yards on the ground this season. Then, defensively, the Badgers are using backup quarterback Braedyn Locke with Tyler Van Dyke done for the year with a torn ACL. A 12.5-point spread is just too much for this mid-tier Badgers team. Give me Purdue at +12.5 (-110).
Pick: Purdue +12.5
-Jason Radowitz
Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina
It’s been a horrific season for North Carolina Tar Heels fans. Not only did North Carolina lose its starting quarterback in the first game of the season, but it also lost back-to-back matchups to James Madison and Duke in a ridiculous fashion. The Tar Heels fell to James Madison, 70-50, then blew a 20-point lead to rivals Duke and lost, 21-20. At this point, there’s no coming back from these losses. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has averaged 48.50 points per game this season. The Panthers have already faced Cincinnati and West Virginia, so they’ve been tested some and are still 4-0. Eli Holstein has thrown for 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions, and the offense has been terrific in the run game, averaging 192.5 yards per game behind leading rusher Desmond Reid. Pittsburgh will likely have more success in the air against North Carolina. But whatever they do offensively should be more than enough against the Tar Heels. Take Pittsburgh at -2.5 (-112) on the road.
Pick: Pittsburgh -2.5
-Jason Radowitz