College Football Week 6 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets (2022)
We're back again with another incredible slate of college football games in Week 6. Week 5 was tough on the author of this weekly spot after big hits the previous few weeks, but longshot winners were still splattered all over the board. We grind forward with this slate with the same ferocity we do every week. Here are a few games that I'm eyeing for longshot winners this weekend.
Ball State +7.5 at Central Michigan
In this MAC matchup, the Ball State Cardinals travel to Mt. Pleasant to take on the CMU Chippewas. CMU has disappointed offensively after finishing the 2021 season strong behind RB Lew Nichols III. Nichols had 10 games of 130+ yards on the ground last season but has yet to eclipse 72 yards in any of CMU's games against FBS opponents. Nichols's inability to get going has stalled out the Chippewa offense, who have scored just 18.3 points per game against their last three FBS foes.
The Chippewa defense has also struggled, though this is less of a surprise. Ranked 108th in SP+ defense, CMU has allowed 41.8 points per game against every team but Bucknell on their schedule. Ball State has shown the ability to put points on the board and should have no issue against this unit. A big reason is QB John Paddock having a break-out season, leading the MAC in passing yards and ninth in the nation. Being able to put up points is a recipe for success when looking for an upset.
Both these teams have their flaws on offense and defense, which can lead to high variance on the football field. The Cardinals will be able to score easily in this matchup, so if CMU can't find their offense, it could prove to be a long day.
Pick: Ball State ML (+240)
Missouri +11 at Florida
Missouri's defense has been stellar to start SEC play. That has been their calling card all year, ranking in the top 40 in SP+ defense and 15th in defensive EPA per play. A near longshot upset over Georgia in week 5 could spell a letdown spot as they travel to Gainesville to take on Florida. However, this is a matchup the Tigers can exploit. Florida's offense has had moments when it has looked incredibly impressive, but the numbers may be misleading.
Florida took advantage of a gassed Utah defense, pouring on two late touchdowns in week 1 for a statement win after a ho-hum first three quarters. Then against a stout Kentucky defense, they put out their worst offensive output of the year with just 16 points and 279 yards of offense. Missouri will present a similar challenge and should make this a game if the defense can play as well on the road as they have at home.
On the other side of the ball, Missouri is far from explosive, but they were able to move the ball on an elite Georgia defense. They settled for too many field goals in that game. If they can manage to punch in those opportunities, they could find themselves leaving Ben Hill Griffin Stadium with their first SEC win of the season and leave the Gator faithful stunned.
Pick: Missouri ML (+325)
Army +17 at Wake Forest
It has been a rough start to the year for the West Point cadets. Losses against all three FBS opponents have highlighted deficiencies on defense, but the triple option on offense has still been effective. In this aspect, Wake Forest presents an interesting matchup.
Very few teams in the country will be able to stop the Demon Deacons' offense. Wake Forest holds the 12th-rated offense per SP+ offensive rankings. For Army to make this a game, they'll need to be able to match them, drive for drive, which they are capable of doing. They proved this in the game last year when Army put up 56 points on this Wake Forest defense, though they gave up 70 themselves. Army will again be able to move the ball on this 89th-ranked SP+ defense. Even in a win in Week 5, Wake Forest allowed Florida State to put up big chunks of yards, but the Seminoles eventually shot themselves in the foot with penalties, turnovers, and missed field goals.
Army can negate the dominance of the Wake Forest offense with methodical drives. The offenses should be able to keep pace with each other, so if Army can get a few stops, they'll give themselves an opportunity for one of the biggest upsets of the year.
Pick: Army ML (+550)
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