College Football Week 6 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets
It becomes harder to identify potential longshot bets as the season goes on, but it can be done. Some teams will always overachieve, while others will play down to their competition. The reasons why will vary, but the result is the same: Upsets happen; longshots sometimes win.
We think we've identified a few solid candidates for Week 6 of the 2024 college football season.
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College Football Week 6 Longshot Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
It would be easy to pick a few teams where the odds are -3 or -2 and say the underdog could pull off an upset. But those aren't really longshots; they're competitive. To identify winnable longshots, we'll stick to games where the spread is at least 6.5-7.0 points.
Duke (+270) vs. Georgia Tech (-9.5)
This matchup is not a common scenario. One team (Duke) is undefeated at 5-0, 1-0 (conference play), while the other team (Georgia Tech) is 3-2, 1-2 (conference play). The one with the worst record is the favorite - not just the favorite, but a 9.5-point favorite.
Am I missing something here?
Okay, so Duke is undefeated, but they haven't played anyone competitive yet. Northwestern isn't bad, Connecticut has a winning record, as does North Carolina. But they barely beat these three, and no one is too impressive. But neither is Georgia Tech. The win over Florida State is not worth bragging about anymore, and neither is their beatdown of VMI.
It was a nice win over Georgia State, but the Panthers are not anyone special.
The Yellow Jackets are no longer a powerhouse running team, but they are still pretty good at it (163 yards per game). Haynes King has developed into a pretty good passer and is a threat to run. But Duke’s defense is solid in both respects.
Duke could run into trouble on the offensive side of the ball. The Blue Devils do not have a strong run game, but they have a decent passing game. The Yellow Jackets have struggled to stop the pass (they are No. 90 in the country).
Both teams have their positive attributes and things they do well. There is no reason why Georgia Tech should be such a heavy favorite. If anything, this will be a competitive game won by less than a touchdown. If you don't feel comfortable betting on the Duke Moneyline, give the point spread some thought.
Our Pick: Duke Moneyline (+270)
Rutgers (+200) vs. Nebraska (-7)
Can anyone remember the last time Rutgers football was undefeated? I sure can't. To be fair, the Scarlet Knights have not played anyone worth bragging about, although Washington is a decent team with a winning record (so far).
Kyle Monangai is doing a solid job running the ball with 589 yards on 97 carries spread across four games. He's gone for 100+ in three of four games and scored at least one touchdown in every game this season.
But while their run game is good, they do not defend against the run well (No. 98 in the country). Luckily, this team is not the rushing powerhouse Nebraska teams from past years. No, the Cornhuskers are more of a passing team behind the talented arm of freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola.
However, as exciting as he has been at times, Raiola has made his share of typical freshman quarterback mistakes.
I'd lean towards taking the Rutgers Moneyline because Nebraska looks like an overrated team the media wants to be back. While it may be in a year or two, Railoa is not quite ready to take the team to higher ground. But in time.
Rutgers is certainly good enough to make this a very competitive game; they may even be able to win it if they can limit their mistakes and capitalize on Nebraska's.