College Football Week 6 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (10/8)
Letâs take a look at the College Football Week 6 odds, picks, and predictions for Saturdayâs games.
Here are other game previews for Week 6:
- Texas A&M vs. Alabama
- Florida State vs. NC State
- Tennessee vs. LSU
- Texas vs. Oklahoma
- Ohio State vs. Michigan State
- Oregon State vs. Stanford
- Auburn vs. Georgia
- Wisconsin vs. Northwestern
- Boise State vs. Fresno State
- Massachusetts vs. Liberty
- UAB vs. Middle Tennessee
- Western Kentucky vs. UTSA
- Eastern Michigan vs. Western Michigan
- Notre Dame vs. BYU
- Ball State vs. Central Michigan
- Missouri vs. Florida
- Army vs. Wake Forest
- Iowa vs. Illinois
And check out our other Week 6 College Football betting content:
- Thor Nystromâs Best College Football Week 6 Bets
- Bogmanâs College Football Week 6 Best Bets & Predictions
- College Football Week 6 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Parlay Bets
- College Football Week 6 Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Under-the-Radar Plays
- College Football Week 6 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets
Check out Thor Nystromâs Week 6 College Football Power Rankings >>
College Football Week 6 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Saturday
Virginia (+3) vs. Louisville
This will become my favorite bet of the week if Louisville QB Malik Cunningham is ruled out. But either way, Iâm riding with Virginia.
Cunningham suffered an undisclosed injury in Saturdayâs loss to Boston College. He missed the final two drives in what turned out to be a 34-33 loss as double-digit favorites.
Cunningham is Louisvilleâs entire offense. He leads the Cards in both rushing and passing yards and has accounted for 43.7% and 66.3% of the teamâs rushing and total yardage.
Cunningham was replaced by QB2 Brock Domann, who went 1-for-7 through the air while not providing any mobility. The downgrade from Domann to Cunningham is arguably worth a TD or more on the spread.
So if Cunningham is out, consider my spread more like UVA -7 or -8. Here was what SIâs Louisville blog had to say: âLouisville is capital-S screwed if [Cunningham misses] time.â UL HC Scott Satterfield, who is on a seat hotter than the sunâs core, has refused to discuss Cunninghamâs injury or prognosis.
Like Louisville, Virginia has been a âsellâ team for us for much of the season. But the Cavs have started to figure things out, namely, how to work around a poor OL. That had also previously been Boston Collegeâs bugaboo, but Louisville wasnât exactly able to exploit that. In fact, BC rushed for more yards last week than they had against their past three P5 opponents combined.
Virginia played quality games against ODU and Syracuse last month before succumbing to Duke in a back-to-back road spot last week. I think the Cavs will get back on track by upsetting Louisville.
Pick: UVA +3
- Thor Nystrom
#4 Michigan (-22.5) @ Indiana and OVER 58.5
We took Michigan last week, and it worked, so we are going to ride again! The most impressive part of the Michigan victory last week to me was the offense dominating Iowa! Iowa only had 1 sack and no turnovers for a defense that had utterly dominated everyone they played. Michigan had a balanced account that went for over 300 yards, and RB Blake Corum rushed for 133 yards which no team had hit against Iowa before this game. QB J.J. McCarthy was efficient, going 18/24 for 155 yards and a TD.
Michigan did all of this against a top-tier defense in Iowa, and Indiana is on the other end of the scale. The Indiana defense is giving up an average of 30 points per game, ranks 118th in passing yards allowing 277.8 YPG, and allows over 142 rushing yards per game, ranking 69th. Michigan is 6th in the country in PPG, averaging 45.4 PPG, and are averaging just over 30 PPG in their two games against Power 5 teams (who both have better defenses than Indiana, IMO).
The biggest mismatch in this game is on the other side of the ball. Indiana has been a bit one-sided on offense with a strong passing game, ranking 33rd in the country behind transfer QB Connor Bazelak. The problem is they canât run the ball efficiently, they rank 116th in rushing total and 110th in YPC. The lack of a respectable run game will make 2nd and 3rd long, bad news for an offensive line that ranks in the bottom 15 of pass blocking by PFFâs metrics. Michigan has 15 sacks from 11 different players, and I expect it to be a long day for Bazelak. Michigan will have to do the heavy lifting on the score, but I see this as a 52-14 or 49-21 type of game that Michigan should dominate!
Pick: Michigan -22.5 (-120) AND Over 58.5 (-110)
- Scott Bogman
Mississippi State (-9) vs. Arkansas
Arkansas is in a terrible situation, traveling to an opponent they match up poorly against. And Arkansas may be playing without their star quarterback.
Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson has not practiced this week as of Wednesday. The Hogs have been pretty mum about his status. So much so that itâs getting weird. HC Sam Pittman on Wednesday corrected a reporter who asked about Jefferson being in the concussion protocol.
âI didnât say that,â Pittman said. âAnybody else?â The rest of Pittmanâs presser, he was affable, joking about bands and jukeboxes. Usually polite, Pittman, during one answer, said âBless youâ to a reporter whoâd sneezed. He was only short that one time. Is it any coincidence that it was a response to the only question he was asked that day that mattered?
Jefferson took a huge shot and suffered a head injury last week. Pittman can say what he wants, and HIPAA laws certainly allow him to say as little as he ends up saying. But if Jefferson werenât in concussion protocol right now, Arkansasâ team doctor would be facing a fate much worse than the Dolphinsâ doctor who was just fired for his handling of Tua Tagovailoaâs injury.
Pittman went on to say that he thought Jefferson would travel with the team to Starkville. This, too, was a telling quote. If Pittman thought Jefferson was playing on Saturday, heâd know â not think â Jefferson was traveling to said game.
A reporter halfway through the presser asked a clever question that revealed another telling Pittman quote. Asked what practice day during the week was most important in terms of deciding on an injured playerâs availability, Pittman said: âWednesday is always our day, they have to do something by Wednesday, or we pretty much count them out for the game.â Again: Jefferson did not practice on Wednesday.
No way to sugarcoat it: Arkansasâ quarterback situation is ugly if Jefferson canât go. The team previously moved former QB Malik Hornsby to WR, leaving transfer Cade Fortin as the primary backup. Fortin could not hold onto the starting job at USF. In 131 career attempts, Fortin has completed less than 50% of his passes for fewer than five yards per attempt and a 1/3 TD/INT ratio. The prospect of QB depth without Jefferson was so bad at the position that Pittman elected to move Hornsby back to QB this week.
Cade Fortin is not an FBS-caliber quarterback. Pittman referred to Fortin as the âthrowingâ backup, which tells you all you need to know about Hornsbyâs passing development if you didnât get the referendum from the move to receiver.
Pittman became less cagey when discussing hypothetical QB plans if Jefferson is out against MSU, stating that both Fortin and Hornsby would take snaps. It seemed like he had thought that one through.
My tea-leaf reading says Jefferson has little chance of playing, barring an enormous late-week breakthrough. If he doesnât, Arkansas wonât be able to pass. This would allow Mississippi Stateâs strong defense to devote all its resources to shutting down the run.
On the other side of the ball, Mississippi Stateâs passing offense finally appears to be close to achieving singularity under Mike Leach for the first time. The Bulldogs get the ball into space and force the defense to tackle one-on-one.
Arkansasâ biggest team weakness â when Jefferson is healthy â is either the pass defense (SP+ No. 102) or tackling (PFF No. 122). Arkansas is without both starting safeties from last year, one to transfer and the other to a season-ending injury, and its corners have been poor.
It would be shocking if Mississippi State couldnât do anything it wanted on offense. And if Jefferson doesnât play, Arkansas will play offense against a good defense with both hands tied behind its back.
Lastly, Mississippi State has outscored opponents 52-7 in the first quarter this year â first-quarter and/or first-half bets should also be considered.
Pick: Mississippi State -9 (1Q: MSU -3)
- Thor Nystrom
#21 Washington (-13.5) @ Arizona State
Arizona State seems pretty lost, which isnât surprising to anyone paying attention to their recent storylines. Head Coach Herm Edwards was fired after the embarrassing loss at home to Eastern Michigan, and while the opponents havenât been easy, Utah and USC, the Sun Devils havenât shown much fight. UCLA beat Washington State by harassing QB Michael Penix and converting 3rd downs. The blueprint is there, but itâs doubtful to me that ASU can pull it off.
Washington only allowed 2 sacks to UCLA but allowed a season-high 15 pressures against, their previous season high was 8 against FCS Portland State. Arizona State has the 2nd fewest sacks in the country so far this season, with only 3. The Bruins converted 10/14 first downs against Washington, which is probably a little fluky, but the Bruins are one of only 19 teams in FBS with a 3rd down conversion rate of 50% or better. Arizona State has converted only 20 of 59 3rd downs on the season, ranking them 104th in the nation. The one game the Sun Devils converted 50% of 3rd downs was last week against USC, a game they lost by 17 points.
The bigger issue I see for ASU is the offense as they rank well below average statistically, 104th in scoring, 91st in passing, and 77th in rushing. PFF also grades them below average in every single offensive stat that they grade. Washington is right around average to below average on defense, but Arizona State just doesnât have the offense to take advantage. QB Emory Jones has been ok but still only has 4 passing TDs over ASUâs 5 games. Jones also only has 5 turnover-worthy plays, according to PFF but also only 3 big-time throws. Washington can be beaten, UCLA proved that, but ASU isnât going to be the team to even come close, in my opinion. The on-field obstacles are too big, not to mention the coaching changes. I think the Huskies dominate this one!
Pick: Washington -13.5 (-115)
- Scott Bogman
#9 Ole Miss (-16.5) @ Vanderbilt and UNDER 61.5
Vanderbilt is a very improved team overall, but they are still at the bottom of the SEC and arenât ready to compete with the top teams in the SEC, as evidenced by the 55-3 beating Bama put on them two weeks ago. Vandy has some dominant wins over Hawaiâi, Elon, and Northern Illinois but has been pounded by the two P5 opponents theyâve played so far in Wake Forest (45-25) and Alabama. Vandy has established itself as a run-first offense behind transfer RB Ray Davis and even ranks top 25 in PFFs run grade.
Mississippi has been a bit bipolar in run defense this season which has given them middling statistics and grades against the run this season. Tulsa, who beat the spread and made the game close against Ole Miss, ran for 262 yards against Ole Miss. Tulsa ran the ball 43 times and had some big chunk runs of 47 and two of 17, making up 31% of that total. This doesnât scare me because Ole Miss fixed the issue last week against Kentucky, holding the Wildcats to 108 rushing yards on 37 attempts.
While the run game could be an issue for Ole Miss, the rest of the game is a mismatch. Ole Miss hasnât been crisp passing the ball, and transfer QB Jaxson Dart has been anything but sharp so far, but Vandy doesnât pressure QBs enough. Vandy only has seven sacks on the season and ranks dead last in pass rush grade from PFF. The biggest issue that Vandy is facing is the Ole Miss run game. The Rebs have a season-low of 186 rushing yards, and that was against a ranked opponent last week in Kentucky. Ole Miss has gone over 300 yards rushing twice, and the only team that Vandy has held to under 150 yards was Hawaiâi in Week 1 when they got up 38-10 early in the 3rd, and Hawaiâi ended up with 55 pass attempts and only ran 26 times. The extra week to prep might help Vandy for a little bit, but once Ole Miss starts running downhill, theyâll be hard to stop. Once again, Iâm threading the needle a little bit, laying the points and taking the under, but I think the run-first identity of both teams will lead to burning the clock, and I donât think Vandy will score much at all. I see this as a Rebs Win in the neighborhood of 35-10 or 42-17, which would hit both sides. The public money is on our side, too, so letâs ride with them and add to the W column!
Bet: Ole Miss -16.5 (-115) and Under 61.5 (-106)
- Scott Bogman
Miami (FL) vs. UNC o65.5
My system absolutely loves the over in this game, and Iâm going along for the ride. The market seems to be a bit down on UNCâs offense after the Notre Dame loss and is, of course, way down on Miamiâs following the MTSU loss. Sharp bettors also may be bracing for a weather game: Current forecasts call for 16 mph during gametime, with a decent chance of precipitation.
All of this may have opened a window of value for us. Wind affects point totals, but not to the degree that ATT shows value on the over. For both offenses, this is an awesome get-right opportunity. UNCâs offense has scored 35 points or more in all five games. It ranks top-5 in both explosiveness and finishing drives.
Miami has consistently been burned by big plays. The Hurricanes rank No. 118 in defensive explosion. Itâll be strength-on-weakness when UNCâs top-10 passing offense throws into Miamiâs No. 129 SP+-rated pass defense.
On the other side, Miami hasnât generated explosive plays all season. But theyâve shown an ability to move the ball between the 20s, and the offensive line has played well. The lack of points in scoring opportunities â see Texas A&M game â wonât be a problem against UNCâs defense, one of the most generous in the nation.
Miamiâs offensive line â a bright spot so far â will manhandle UNCâs defensive front. Thatâll keep the Canes on schedule throughout the game. And against UNCâs rotten secondary (No. 110 PFF coverage grade), expect a get-right game for QB Tyler Van Dyke. Van Dyke, who came into this season as an R1 hopeful, was benched against MTSU.
Miami has had two weeks to prepare after last weekâs bye. I expect a big bounce-back from the Canesâ offense. The gameâs outcome could go either way, but I expect the winner to prevail in a shootout.
Pick: OVER 65.5
- Thor Nystrom
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