College Football Week 6 Odds, Picks & Predictions (Saturday)
Gear up for another awesome weekend of college football action with BettingPros! We’ll have you covered with all of our top picks for the week along with our projected spreads and totals to help guide your college football bets. Below are our top picks and predictions for Saturday’s games.
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Top College Football Odds & Picks: GAME
Oklahoma vs. Texas
The Red River Rivalry gets reinvigorated as both teams come in ranked in the top 12. For Oklahoma, Quarterback Dillion Gabriel continues to excel as he came into this year throwing for over 3,000 yards in three of his four seasons. The defense has played its part by being third-best in points allowed, but this matchup will be their first test because it's the first one against an opponent ranked within the top 40. Texas looks fantastic at 5-0 with two wins against ranked opponents. The offense is showing balance, with Quinn Ewers having a 66.0% completion rate and ten touchdowns to one interception, while Jonathan Brooks has efficiently filled in for Bijan Robinson with 6.9 yards per carry and six total touchdowns. There was no rivalry last year as the Longhorns put a beating to the Sooners 49-0, but Oklahoma didn't have Gabriel in that game due to an injury. You should be catering to the over.
Pick: Over 60.5 (-110)
-John Supowitz
Maryland vs. Ohio State
This is a deceptively good matchup. Both teams are undefeated, and while the Terrapins haven’t played any real competition, the Buckeyes’ offense hasn’t done enough to prove they can run away from a team like this. The Terrapins are tied for the best turnover margin in college football. They have an average margin of 2.3 per game. These turnovers have allowed them to win each of their five games by at least 18 points. Ohio State hasn’t been turnover-prone, but they haven’t taken the ball away much either. They’re sitting at a turnover margin of 0.3 this season. While the Buckeyes’ defense was very impressive against Notre Dame their last time out, the offense wasn’t. In a game of inches, the defense made huge play after huge play, and if a single one of them had gone in favor of the Fighting Irish, then the Buckeyes’ offense wouldn’t have been able to spring the comeback. This is simply too many points for the Buckeyes to give to a solid football team with a really good offense.
Pick: Maryland +20 (-110)
-Phil Wood
LSU vs. Missouri
The spread for this game is weird. LSU is favored by six on the road even though they have not looked good away from home this season. Additionally, Missouri is undefeated, and they have a nice win over Kansas State. With all of that said, we’re going to avoid the spread because neither one of these teams has done enough to warrant trust. Instead, we’re going with the over. LSU is averaging 551.4 yards per game, and they have scored at least 31 in four of their five games. Additionally, their defense can’t stop anyone. They’re allowing 429.4 yards per game. Missouri has scored at least 30 in four of their five games, and they have allowed quite a few points as well. Four of their five opponents have scored at least 19, with Memphis and Kansas State each scoring 27. Neither one of these defenses is good enough to make enough stops to keep the other team out of the 30s. Because of that, the over is the best play.
Pick: Over 64.5 (-110)
-Phil Wood
Rutgers vs. Wisconsin
Rutgers will travel to Camp Randall in what should be a closer matchup than the spread would suggest. Rutgers is a much better team than the outfits we’ve seen out of Piscataway in recent years. Defensively the Scarlet Knights have excelled. Their schedule hasn’t been a murder’s row, but they’ve shut down every offense they’ve played sans a Michigan team that didn’t pull away until the second half. Rutgers will look to slow down the Wisconsin run attack, and they should have some success. Forcing the Badgers to put the ball in QB Tanner Mordecai’s hands won’t make this a walk in the park for them either. Rutgers has managed to give up only 169.2 yards per game in the air. The Rutgers defense will keep them in this game and more importantly, be the driving force behind them covering this two-touchdown spread.
Pick: Rutgers +13.5 (-110)
-Ryan Rodeman
Alabama vs. Texas A&M
Alabama has been recovering after their loss to Texas with a couple of important wins, including a win over No. 15 Mississippi. The quarterback situation hasn't been as solid as the previous two years with Bryce Young, but Jalen Monroe has been much better recently after being benched a few weeks ago. The Tide will always rely on their strong defense, especially up front with players like Dallas Turner and Deontae Lawson. Texas A&M has started the season off well at 4-1 and 2-0 in the SEC. They suffered a big loss, with quarterback Connor Weigman suffering a season-ending injury. Max Johnson was excellent last week, but they will rely on running back Le'Veon Moore to support this offense. This will be a team that identifies through their defense, and D. J. Durkin has changed the culture on that side of the ball as they're fifth in total defense and have allowed ten or the fewest points in three of five games this year. Both teams have great defensive lines, this will be decided in the trenches, and it will be a low-scoring result.
Pick: Under 46 (-110)
-John Supowitz
Purdue vs. Iowa
The Iowa Hawkeyes continue to find ways to win. Cade McNamara is done for the season after a season-ending injury last weekend. But Iowa still defeated Michigan State with a timely offense and fantastic defense. That's always the case with Iowa. On the other hand, Purdue has relied heavily on its run game. The Boilermakers have added nearly 400 yards of offense, with 150.2 yards on the ground. Tyrone Tracy Jr. has rushed for 6.3 yards per game and has five touchdowns. However, Iowa's run defense is typically excellent despite allowing 138.2 yards per game. Iowa will find a way, at home, against Purdue.
Pick: Iowa -2 (-110)
–Jason Radowitz
UCF vs. Kansas
The UCF Knights haven't had the best quarterback play without John Rhys Plumlee. The offense has still earned 545.5 yards per game, with 255.2 yards on the ground. But they've also lost back-to-back games against Kansas State and Baylor. The loss to Baylor was embarrassing. Timmy McClain couldn't close the game out after completing 52% of passes on 25 attempts. On the other hand, Kansas lost its first game to Texas without Jalen Daniels. Daniels is still listed as day-to-day, meaning we could have a game between two backup quarterbacks. Both teams have combined for nearly 1,000 yards of offense. However, both defenses have allowed about 370 yards on defense. With two experienced backups, I still like the Over in this game.
Pick: Over 64 (-110)
–Jason Radowitz
Kentucky vs. Georgia
Everyone complains that Georgia doesn't play a hard schedule. Well, they've got No. 20 Kentucky at home this weekend. Kentucky is undefeated, with only one impressive win against Florida. But the Wildcats earned a convincing 33-14 win at home in that game. On the other hand, Georgia has escaped both SEC matchups against South Carolina and Auburn. Most recently, the Bulldogs only defeated Auburn by seven points. The Bulldogs have more offensive potential. However, Kentucky has held teams to 75.8 yards per game on the ground and has a secondary that is probably just as good as Georgia's. I think Georgia escapes another one. But I'll take Kentucky and the points.
Pick: Kentucky +14.5 (-110)
–Jason Radowitz
Michigan vs. Minnesota
The Michigan Wolverines have been elite this year. Michigan hasn't played any tough competition. Rutgers is probably the best team they've played. However, the Wolverines have earned at least 31 points in every game this season. They've also held each team to no more than seven points this year. On the other hand, Minnesota escaped Louisiana with a 35-24 win. But the Gophers were trailing in that game and lost their previous two games to North Carolina and Northwestern. The opponents have earned 127.2 yards per game on the ground against Minnesota. Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards should have a field day.
Pick: Michigan -18 (-110)
–Jason Radowitz
Notre Dame vs. Louisville
Notre Dame is coming off another game that came down to the wire, but this time, it would be the Irish coming out on top thanks to an impressive 4th & 16 run by Sam Hartman. The offense looks great, especially with Audric Estime as the nation's leading rusher, but they also boost one of the best defenses, as they're 15th in points allowed. Louisville is 5-0, but they've barely scathed by on some under-performing teams. Jack Plummer, in his third program, has some good numbers with a 65.5% completion rate and 11 touchdowns but struggles with turnovers and has an interception in five of six games. The Cardinals get their first test, and seeing they've barely won against average teams, they should struggle against a good team.
Pick: Notre Dame -6 (-110)
-John Supowitz
Texas Tech vs. Baylor
Both of these teams have disappointed compared to preseason expectations. Further review of Texas Tech’s schedule shows close games against some rather solid opponents, and a blowout of Houston last week. Baylor’s defense has looked non-competitive until UCF shot themselves in the foot and blew an enormous lead. The Bears are the home team, but their defense is just so bad. Texas State moved the ball down the field all day on them, along with Texas. Utah actually looked competent on offense when facing Baylor. I can’t in good faith back this team. Texas Tech’s record is a result of a strong early schedule. The Red Raiders will again start backup QB Behren Morton, but I still love backing them against this Baylor defense.
Pick: Texas Tech -1 (-110)
-Ryan Rodeman
Arizona vs. USC
USC comes into the game as the top-scoring team in the nation and has put up more than 40 points in each. Going into last week, some sportsbooks had Michael Penix Jr. favored in the Heisman Trophy race, but after Caleb Williams threw for 403 passing yards and six touchdowns against Colorado, he jumped back into the odds favorite across the board. While Arizona couldn’t secure a win last week against Washington, they kept the game competitive, even with their backup quarterback, Noah Fifita, stepping in due to Jayden De Laura’s ankle injury. Head coach Jedd Fisch states that De Laura will start if he’s healthy, but confirmation may not come until near game time. Neither quarterback can match Williams and the USC offense, and the Trojans should have control of this game.
Pick: USC -21.5 (-110)
-John Supowitz
Fresno State vs. Wyoming
Wyoming (4-1) will host Fresno State (5-0) in what figures to be the best Group of 5 matchup of the weekend. Fresno State has picked up two Power 5 wins on the season against Purdue and Arizona State, though those wins don't seem to carry the same weight as they did at the time as both teams have combined for just 3 wins so far. Wyoming has played two Power 5 teams as well, picking up an impressive OT win against Texas Tech and going on the road to give Texas all they could handle with a tied ballgame entering the 4th Quarter. The rest of Fresno State's schedule includes an OT win against FCS Eastern Michigan and two wins against Kent State and Nevada, who have combined to tally 1 win on the season and figure to be bottom feeders in the FBS. The Bulldogs numbers look great on paper, but they've been bolstered by a horrible strength of schedule and I think they're in for a rude awakening in Laramie on Saturday night against a Wyoming defense that ranks in the top half of the Mountain West despite playing against much tougher opponents. I'll take the points with the Cowboys, and I wouldn't be shocked at all to see them pull off the outright upset.
Pick: Wyoming +6.5 (-115)
-Austin MacMillan
Arkansas vs. Ole Miss
The Rebels just finished up back-to-back games against Alabama and LSU. The emotional toll it takes to get up for those two games isn’t something that can be overlooked. This is a classic letdown spot for Ole Miss and the biggest opportunity to disappoint is on the offensive end. Arkansas comes to town, and to say they’re disappointed with the start to the season would be an understatement. The offense struggled out of the gate but it’s looked a bit better due to some weak defensive opponents. BYU, LSU and Texas A&M have already shown they can give up crooked numbers, so the Razorbacks putting up some points isn’t indicative of them turning a corner. All of this is to say, the under is the play here.
Pick: Under 62.5 (-110)
-Ryan Rodeman
Georgia Tech vs. Miami
It’s been a topsy-turvy year for the Yellow Jackets, who followed up a road upset over Wake Forest with an embarrassing 11-point loss at home to Bowling Green as 21-point favorites thanks to three costly turnovers. As disgusting as this is, it feels like a good buy-low spot on a Georgia Tech team that's been much more competitive under Brent Key. Miami is off to a tremendous 4-0 start, but only one of those wins came against a respectable Power 5 opponent (Texas A&M). Both teams have high-powered passing attacks, but I actually trust Georgia Tech's 40th-ranked pass defense over Miami's, which is surrendering 20 more passing yards per game this season against weaker competition. In Miami's lone game against a legitimate opponent, it yielded 336 passing yards to Texas A&M. It's ugly, but take the Yellow Jackets at +21 or better.
Pick: Georgia Tech +20.5 (-110)
-Matt Barbato
Vanderbilt vs. Florida
This is a battle between two bottom-feeders in the SEC East. Florida can't go five plays without a mind-numbing mistake. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt is an impressive 0-6 ATS on the year. Vandy's passing offense is its only real strength this year, as it ranks 61st in the country averaging 7.7 yards per pass attempt. But against the best defense it played, Kentucky, the Commodores only averaged 4.9 yards per attempt. That spells trouble against a Florida defense that's allowing only 6.2 yards per attempt (26th in the nation) and 144 passing yards per game. Backing Graham Mertz as a big favorite is a terrifying ask, and the Gators are just 2-6 ATS as a home favorite under Billy Napier. But the Gators are 4-3 ATS after a loss with Napier at the helm, and they're in both a bounce-back spot after last week's embarrassing loss to Kentucky, as well as a revenge spot after losing to Vandy on the road last year. It's far from my favorite pick of the week, but I'll go with the Gators against a Vandy defense that ranks outside the top 80 in both rushing and passing yards allowed per attempt.
Pick: Florida -18 (-110)
-Matt Barbato
Washington State vs. UCLA
When conference realignment dominated the headlines late in the summer, Washington State was one of the teams that ended up without a seat at the table. They became the butt of the jokes when it comes to Power 5 programs, but the Cougars are looking to get the last laugh. Washington State has come out the gate hot, especially on offense. They’ll come up against a UCLA defense that has performed better than any unit they’ve faced by EPA per play. In fact, UCLA may have an elite defense and they’ve had two weeks to get ready for this matchup. On the other side of the ball, the Bruins still have things to work on. The rotation of quarterbacks finally ended against Utah, but not with great results as QB Dante Moore and the whole offense struggled. They should have a little more success against Washington State, but I’m still targeting the under in this game.
Pick: Under 60.5 (-110)
-Ryan Rodeman
Virginia Tech vs. Florida State
Undefeated Florida State will play host to Virginia Tech, who's coming off an impressive multi-possession win against Pittsburgh after dropping 3 consecutive games to Purdue, Rutgers and Marshall. Florida State's offense has been downright explosive, averaging over 43 points per game and carrying them to impressive wins over LSU on a neutral field and Clemson in Death Valley. As good as FSU has looked, I actually think that Virginia Tech and their ACC-leading pass defense could give the Seminoles a bit of a challenge. Jordan Travis has been a little bit banged up in recent weeks and this game is sandwiched in between Florida State's big win at Clemson and two upcoming games against Syracuse and Duke, who are both 4-1. We've already seen the Seminoles almost get caught in a sleepy spot against Boston College, and I think they could be in for the same sort of game this weekend. I don't see FSU getting upset, but this is too many points to be laying with a banged up QB against a Virginia Tech squad with a great passing defense that's coming off their best offensive output of the season.
Pick: Virginia Tech +24 (-110)
-Austin MacMillan
Syracuse vs. North Carolina
As someone who backed Syracuse against Clemson last weekend, I came away completely unimpressed with Dino Babers' squad. The offense looked lost against a defense of actual caliber. And the Orange defense couldn't stop the pass or refrain from taking foolish penalties. Against the first real defense it played all year, Cuse QB Garrett Shrader morphed into a pumpkin, and the Syracuse passing game averaged a season-low six yards per pass attempt. On the flip side, Syracuse's defense allowed a season-high 7.1 yards per attempt to Cade Klubnik. If you can't stop Cade Klubnik, I'm not sure how Syracuse will stop a far more efficient Tar Heels passing game led by Drake Maye. And while UNC isn't quite as elite defensively, the Tar Heels ranks inside the top 40 nationally in yards allowed per pass attempt. It's clear Syracuse's start to the year was a mirage, and while UNC isn't an elite team, it's good enough to win with margin.
Pick: North Carolina -9.5 (-110)
-Matt Barbato
Oregon State vs. California
This game has the makings of a hard-nosed, low-scoring affair. Both teams rank top-50 in the country in rushing offense, and top-40 in stopping the run. The difference comes when these teams go to the air, as Oregon State ranks 45th in passing yards per attempt, while Cal ranks 96th in pass defense per attempt. The Golden Bears also don't offer much explosiveness in the passing game, ranking 111th in yards per attempt. That being said, Oregon State could enter this game a bit sleepy, as they just dominated Utah at home last week and host UCLA for a critical PAC-12 showdown next week. I trust coach Justin Fuente to keep this game within the number and like a lean on the under as well.
Pick: Cal +9.5, lean under 51.5 (-110)
-Matt Barbato
Best Ways to Bet College Football for Beginners
Game Total
Bettors new to the hobby can be confused by spreads, but game totals are simple. Every football game has a total posted for the combined final score between the two teams. Bettors have the option to choose the OVER or UNDER, generally at -110 odds (risk: $110; win: $100). So if the total is 42 and you take the OVER, you need 43 points to win the bet. If you put a bet down on the over to win $100 and it goes over, you get back the money you initially risked, plus $100. If it stayed under, you would have lost your $110 and that's it. If by chance the game ended with 42 total points, it's called a push; when a game pushes, you get the money you risked back but nothing more.
ie: California vs. Illinois, Over 42 or Under 42
tip: Over bets can be a really fun social event with your buddies. Have everyone throw in a few bucks, then take the over together. Instead of getting pumped when one side scores, everyone is pumped for ANY score, all game.
Moneyline
The moneyline is the easiest way to test your college football knowledge: who will win the game? That's it. The moneyline doesn't use favorites or underdogs, it's totally straight up. That said, the risk-reward can be challenging because they're weighted. Instead of every game being around -110, like game totals and spreads, moneylines vary depending on the matchup.
For our example, California was favored by seven points over Illinois, meaning oddsmakers think the Golden Bears are a touchdown better than the Fighting Illini. If you took Cal on the moneyline, points don't matter, they just need to win the game. But because it's safer to take them straight-up without points, you'll have to risk more when you make the bet - remember, they're seven points better than Illinois in the eyes of the oddsmakers. In this case, Cal is -280 on the moneyline, so if you want to win $100, you have to risk $280. On the flip side, moneyline bets can be valuable when taking the underdog because it's a riskier bet - they're seven points worse than their opponent. In this case, Illinois is the underdog - +220 on the moneyline. You'd win $220 on a $100 bet if you picked Illinois on the moneyline and they pulled off the upset.
ie: California (ML -280) vs. Illinois (ML +220)
tip: Check their history against one another. Keep an eye on the injury report and the weather.
Player Props
Player props are some of the most exhilarating bets you can place during a college football game, but they're also easy to understand. For major conferences, you'll have a wide array of options to choose from. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, and sometimes tight ends will have props to choose from. It's simple, fun and easy to follow, and odds on player props don't vary as much as moneylines. Generally, prop bets are in the -110 range like generic spread and total bets.
ie: How many passing yards will Brandon Peters have against California? Over 250 or Under 250
tip: Check how players have performed in the situation they're going to be in. Use split stats on any reliable site to see their numbers at home, on a neutral-site, in December, etc.
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