College Football Week 6 Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Under-the-Radar Plays (2022)
After a 2-2 showing in Week 5, we’ll look to get back to our winning ways in a Week 6 that’s loaded with marquee matchups. As always, we’ll refrain from any of those and hone in on the best games that won’t show up on this week’s radar.
2022 season record: 9-8-1
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Missouri Tigers at Florida Gators -11, Total 55.5
This game is a really tough spot for the Tigers, who are coming off gut-wrenching losses to Auburn and Georgia in consecutive weeks. After giving the No. 1 Bulldogs everything they could handle at home, it’s fair to wonder if Mizzou will have enough in the tank for a trip to the Swamp.
Meanwhile, Florida secured an easy win over Eastern Washington that required very little energy. This also will be a revenge spot for the Gators after they lost to Missouri last season by one in the game that eventually led to Dan Mullen’s dismissal.
The primary concern is a Florida defense that ranks 77th in scoring defense and 108th in total defense. However, Missouri’s offense isn’t exactly prolific, ranking 89th and 90th in those respective categories.
Anthony Richardson should have a field day against the exhausted Tigers.
The pick: Florida -11
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders at UAB Blazers -9.5, Total 52.5
This is a tough matchup for a Middle Tennessee team that we successfully faded last week. Middle Tennessee’s strength on offense is via the air, where it ranks 40th nationally in passing yards per game. That plays right into UAB’s strength, as the Blazers 13th against the pass, holding opponents to just 161.8 yards per game aerially.
Where UAB can be exposed is on the ground, where it’s allowing more than 151 yards per game. However, the Blue Raiders have struggled in that department, ranking 114th with a paltry 3.1 yards per carry average.
UAB is looking to bounce back after a somewhat fluky road loss to Rice. If they can clean up their penalties, they should have no issues covering at home.
The pick: UAB -9.5
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at UT-San Antonio Roadrunners -6.5, Total 73
Kickoff: Saturday, 6 ET
Last year’s participants in the Conference USA title game will renew pleasantries in San Antonio. We could be in store for a true shootout, as these are the highest-scoring teams in CUSA. And while this should be one of the most entertaining overs to root for, the number has steamed a bit too much for my liking.
The key to this game will be the defenses. And Western Kentucky has the superior unit. The Hilltoppers allow 22.2 points per game and 352.6 yards per game. That’s drastically better than the Roadrunners, who have allowed 34 points per game and 441 yards per game. The UTSA secondary could struggle, particularly against a high-powered WKU passing game.
I expect both of these teams to trade blows back and forth in what should be a tight affair throughout.
The pick: Western Kentucky +6.5
Iowa Hawkeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini -3.5, Total 36.5
Kickoff: Saturday, 7:30 ET
Who’s ready for a good old-fashioned Big Ten West rock fight? The Illini are coming off a massive road upset against Wisconsin, while Iowa is licking its wounds after a relatively uncompetitive loss to Michigan at home. With everyone in the division except Wisconsin sitting at 1-1, this is a massive game for both teams.
That said, I wouldn’t expect too many fireworks in Champaign. These defenses allow five yards per pass attempt, the top two in the country. The Illini and Hawkeyes also rank top three nationally in scoring defense, with Illinois allowing just 8.4 points per game and Iowa surrendering a measly 10 points per game.
Have I mentioned these offenses rank outside the top 75 in scoring and passing offense? The only respectable facet is the Illinois running game, which ranks 30th nationally. However, they’ll have their hands full against a Hawkeyes front that ranks 13th against the run.
This should be a closely contested game and an entertaining one if you like defensive struggles. These two teams are a combined 3-7 to the under this season and 2-4 in games against Power 5 foes.
The pick: Under 36.5
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