College Football Week 6 Picks & Predictions: Bogman’s Best Bets

by Scott Bogman |
Oct 05, 2023

The beat of College Football marching bands rolls on into October. Oklahoma vs. Texas will have most of my attention, but with some tickets out, I'll also be paying attention to these other games!

Here are my picks for Week 6 of the season!

College Football Week 6 Picks & Predictions

Week 5 Record: 5-5 | 2023 Record: 24-26 | Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

#23 LSU @ #21 Missouri

The Tiger Bowl will be an offensive battle, and I'm pumped for it. LSU is coming off a tough loss at Ole Miss last week, but they still put up 49 points and allowed the Rebs to score 55.

LSU is seventh in scoring, averaging 44 PPG. Their low total was 24 in Week 1 against Florida State, which is currently ranked #5. The LSU passing offense (sixth in Passing YPG) is led by QB Jayden Daniels, who is third in passing yards, second in TDs and fourth in passer rating so far in 2023. Danielsâ€™ No. 1 target, Malik Nabers, is getting a ton of draft buzz and is also second in the Country in receiving yards. Brian Thomas Jr might be the No. 2 option for Daniels, but he's eighth in receiving yards and tied with Michigan WR Roman Wilson for the most receiving TDs in the nation.

Missouri might not be LSU on offense, but they have scored at least 30 points in four of five games so far this season and are 15th in passing yards per game, averaging over 300 YPG. QB Brady Cook is 15th in yards, 16th in TDs, seventh in passer rating and has not thrown an INT yet this season. Missouri star WR Luther Burden is the only player ahead of Nabers in receiving yards, leading the Nation with 644. Burden is also second in receptions with 43.

These teams aren't â€œweakâ€ on defense, but they can and have been beaten this season. LSU held Mississippi State to 14 points and dominated time of possession, but the other three P5 teams they've played have scored at least 31. Missouri hasn't played a great offense yet but has been strong against the run (ninth) but 91st against the pass.

I think this will be a classic offensive shootout. LSU should control the pace, and Missouri is built to compete with anybody offensively. I trust Missouri to do enough offensively to hold up their end, and LSU can score on anyone. Lots of fun and lots of points, give me the Over!

Bet: OVER 63.0 (-110)

#2 Michigan @ Minnesota

Michigan finally beat the spread last week, which made me happy, but they also found so much rhythm on offense they blew the Under away. Nebraska was easily the best defense they have played, and they shredded the Huskers for 436 yards and 45 points. Michigan didn't have a ton of turnovers, but the defense got one INT and stopped Nebraska on fourth down twice. Michigan just chewed up the clock, holding the ball for 38 minutes. They were very efficient passing and had five players run for 25+ yards.

Minnesota has put up some points this season, and they have a strong run game that has gone over 200 yards in the last two weeks. Still, Michigan is stout against the run. Michigan is 14th in the nation against the run, allowing just over 85 YPG, and ranks third in run defense, according to PFF. Nebraska (106) and ECU (103) are the only teams that have gone over 100 yards against the Wolverines in their first five games. Minnesota averages 31 PPG in the three games they have rushed for 200 or more yards but are down to 11.5 PPG in the two games they didn't hit that mark.

Michigan is peaking on offense, and Minnesota doesn't have the passing firepower to come back after getting down. Yes, 19.5 is a big number for Michigan to clear, but their average margin of victory this season is 28.4 points. The Wolverines will continue to feast on the Big Ten until they go to Penn State in November.

Bet: Michigan -19.5 (-110)

Georgia Tech @ #17 Miami

This is a bad matchup for the Georgia Tech defense. Miami ranks 10th in rushing yards per game (222.5 YPG), and Georgia Tech ranks 131st in rushing defense, allowing over 224 YPG. Miami was forced to go pass-heavy when they played Texas A&M in Week 2, and QB Tyler Van Dyke responded by going 21/30 for 374 yards and five TDs. Leading Miami RB Henry Parrish is 12th in YPC, and that's without many big explosive runs.

Georgia Tech has been surprisingly decent on offense this season, coming in at 50th in PPG at 32.4, which is a big improvement from 127th last year (17.2 PPG). Texas A&M transfer QB Haynes King has improved the Jacketsâ€™ passing offense from below 100 last season to 17th in 2023. Miami isn't deficient against the pass, but they are about middle of the pack at 63rd in YPG and a grade a little lower than that in coverage, according to PFF.

I expect Miami to do the heavy lifting here and put up 40 or more. The run game should move them up and down the field quickly and allow for some big passing plays. They are also rested up coming off a bye week. I think three TDs is what we'll need from Georgia Tech, and while Miami is tough, Tech scored 23 on Ole Miss and 34 on Louisville. Give me the Over in this one, too!

Bet: OVER 57.5 (-110)

#15 Oregon State @ California

I'm following the money a bit in this game, but this is really about the Oregon State defense to me. Oregon State did allow Washington State to score 38, but in the other four games, they have given up an average of 10 PPG. In the Wazzu game, Oregon State gave up 422 passing yards, but Cal is not going to match that total or come anywhere near it. Cal has had QB issues. I think Sam Jackson is the better QB, but Ben Finley could get some reps as well. Cal has had a few 300-yard passing games but hasn't had any receiver go over 100 yards in a game yet.

Oregon State averages over 35 PPG, despite some behind a killer run-blocking OL. The Beavers rank fifth in run-blocking grade on PFF, and RB Damien Martinez is eighth in the nation in breakaway yards. Cal has been pretty decent against the run and held Auburn to only 14 points and under 150 rushing yards. Still, Auburn is way more one-dimensional than Oregon State. D.J. Uiagalelei might make some mistakes but he's also good for some big plays.

Cal wonâ€™t lie down in a home game against a Pac-12 opponent, and I don't expect them to, but Oregon State beat Utah by 14 (21-7), and I think they are a better version of this Cal team. Oregon State will put up way more than the 21 they put up last week, and Cal isn't equipped to go point for point with them. I got Oregon State controlling the ball, playing tough defense and winning by over 10.

Bet: Oregon State -9.5 (-110)

Other Bets I Like:

#24 Fresno State @ Wyoming OVER 44.5 (-110)
Texas Tech -1.5 @ Baylor (-110)
Vanderbilt @ Florida OVER 52.5 (-110)
#11 Alabama -2.5 @ Texas A&M (-110)
#10 Note Dame @ #25 Louisville UNDER 5.04 (-110)
TCU -6.5 @ Iowa State (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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