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College Football Week 6 Rush-Rate Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Welcome back to one of my favorite College Football columns from last year, the “Top-30 Rush-Rate Picks!”

Our angle in this article is straightforward:  We are looking at teams with a rushing identity or teams facing these rushing-oriented teams.

We are working with some new data this year via SIS Sports Inc., which I hope will take us to another level when it comes to finding value. The new metric I am working with is Rush Rate Over Expectancy (RROE). This gives us a more nuanced look at teams rather than just saying, ” They rush the ball a lot.” Anyone can look up a team and see that they run the ball at a high volume, what I want to find is teams that rush the ball at a high frequency in certain situations compared to the average team.  We will be looking at RROE on Standard Downs and Passing Downs.

Let’s dive into the matchups for Week 6 of the College Football season!

College Football Week 6 Top-30 Rush-Rate Picks

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Overview

The thought process for anyone reading this for the first time is simple:  We target teams with a top-30 RROE in Standard Downs and Passing Downs. We will look at six main advanced defensive statistics to measure how successful the matchup is: Defensive Stuff Rate, Defensive Line Yards, Defensive Rush Success Rate, Defensive Power Success Rate, Defensive IsoPPP (explosiveness), Standard Downs Rate and PFF Rush Defense.

There are several angles at play:

  • An underdog with a high RROE vs. an opponent who is below average in the defensive rush categories. They will have the opportunity to limit possessions and control the game script.
  • A favorite with a top-30 RROE vs. an opponent who is stout against the run. They will be forced to employ a game plan that does not fit their overall identity. A favorite’s plan B strategy will never be as dangerous as its preferred method of offense.
  • An underdog with a top-30 RROE vs. a stout defense. The favorite in this scenario has the opportunity to blow a game out of reach and leave the underdog behind the proverbial eight-ball.
  • A favorite with a top-30 RROE vs. an opponent that is lackluster in the aforementioned categories. In this scenario, we prefer the favorite to be, at most, a 10-point favorite.

The reason for this thinking is that high RROE will always lead to fewer possessions and overall points. The overall margin for error will be slimmer. This allows us to simplify the handicapping perspective and focus on unbalanced teams.

Here’s a summary of the teams we are looking for:

  • Underdogs with a top-30 RROE vs. below-average defenses
  • Underdogs with a stout defense vs. a top-30 RROE favorite
  • Favorites with a stout defense vs. a top-30 RROE underdog
  • Favorites with a top-30 RROE (not greater than -10) vs. a below-average defense

Glossary

  • Stuff Rate: Tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage
  • Def Line Yards: Yards directly influenced by the defensive line
  • Def Rush Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on second down and 100% on third and fourth down.
  • Rush IsoPPP: Explosive rush plays allowed (15 yards or more)
  • Def Power Success Rate: The percentage of running plays on third or fourth down from two yards or less in which an offense either converted into a first down or scored a TD. First and second down and goal plays within the two-yard line are also included.
  • PFF Rush Defense: PFF film-graded metric
  • Standard Downs: First down, second and six or less, third/fourth and four or less (Average rush rate is 60%)
  • Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average rush rate is 40%)
  • RROE: Rush Rate Over Expectancy (Percentage over expected rush rate in situations)

North Texas @ Navy

Navy

  • 2nd in RROE on Standard Downs (+27.5%)
  • 3rd in RROE on Passing Downs (+26.6%)

North Texas

  • 78th in Def Power Success Rate
  • 100th in Def Stuff Rate
  • 120th in Def Line Yards
  • 125th in Def Rush Success Rate
  • 121st in Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 99th in Def PFF Rush Grade
  • 131st in Standard Downs Rate

This is a premier matchup for Navy. North Texas ranks bottom 35 in every advanced rushing category except for Power Success Rate, and they are barely average in that. The most concerning thing is North Texas is 131st in Standard Downs Rate, this means Navy will be in an optimal situation all game long. This is a classic smash spot for an academy team.

Bet: Navy -5.5 (-110) + Navy ML for Parlays (-230)

Boston College @ Army

Army

  • 3rd in RROE on Standard Downs (+21.9%)
  • 2nd in RROE on Passing Downs (+28.1%)

Boston College

  • 91st in Def Power Success Rate
  • 75th in Def Stuff Rate
  • 71st in Def Line Yards
  • 97th in Def Rush Success Rate
  • 55th in Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 69th in Def PFF Rush Grade
  • 77th in Standard Downs Rate

Staying true to form, we have another academy team. Boston College isn’t abysmal in these advanced rushing statistics, but being average or slightly below it isn’t good enough against the likes of Navy, Army or Air Force. The most concerning area is the ranking of 97th in Defensive Rush Success Rate. This is where Army lives and excels. Three-yard rush here, then a three-yard rush there, and then another four-yard rush; before you know it, you have been on the field for 12 plays and seven minutes. It is a 1,000 paper cuts and exhausting to play against.

Bet: Army -2.5 (-110) + Army ML for parlays (-155)

Arkansas @ Ole Miss

Arkansas

  • 13th in RROE on Standard Downs (+12.3%)
  • 33rd in RROE on Passing Downs (+5.7%)

Ole Miss

  • 130th in Def Power Success Rate
  • 128th in Def Stuff Rate
  • 119 in Def Line Yards
  • 92nd in Def Rush Success Rate
  • 53rd in Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 76th in Def PFF Rush Grade
  • 72nd in Standard Downs Rate

Ole Miss is coming off a game-of-the-year candidate against LSU. The drama in that game was palpable. This week, they face off against a different style of offense that is looking to physically dominate in the trenches. If you want to beat Ole Miss, you cannot try to outpace them; you have to slow the game down and limit possessions. Arkansas will look to implement exactly what Alabama did, which happens to have a similar RROE profile.

Bet: Arkansas +11.5 (-110) & Arkansas ML (+350)

Alabama @ Texas A&M

Alabama

  • 15th in RROE on Standard Downs (+11.6%)
  • 21st in RROE on Passing Downs (+8.1%)

Texas A&M

  • 76th in Def Power Success Rate
  • 14th in Def Stuff Rate
  • 10th in Def Line Yards
  • 11th in Def Rush Success Rate
  • 50th in Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 65th in Def PFF Rush Grade
  • 2nd in Standard Downs Rate

Anyone who watched Tommy Rees call plays in Notre Dame (constantly disappointed Notre Dame Fan right here) knows that he calls a conservative, vanilla game. That is exactly what he has implemented at Alabama. It worked wonders against a porous Ole Miss defense and was horrendous against Texas. Texas A&M checks pretty much every box when it comes to a stout rush defense. Their PFF Grade leaves room for desire, but they excel in four other major categories. The most sticky one is that they are second in Standard Downs Rate, which means teams are constantly in passing situations. Rushing-oriented teams do not want to be in Passing Downs. I see Texas A&M stopping this limited Alabama attack.

Bet: Texas A&M +2.5 (-110) & Texas A&M ML (+114)

Michigan @ Minnesota

Minnesota

  • 17th in RROE on Standard Downs (+10.1%)
  • 18th in RROe on Passing Downs (+8.1%)

Michigan

  • 1st in Def Power Success Rate
  • 16th in Def Stuff Rate
  • 2nd in Def Line Yards
  • 1st in Def Rush Success Rate
  • 78th in Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 4th in Def Rush PFF Grade
  • 4th in Standard Downs Rate

Normally, I would not advocate for taking such a large favorite, but Minnesota plays right into Michigan’s defensive strengths. I honestly cannot see how they will score 14 or more points. Minnesota’s lackluster, run-straight-into-the-pile plays and short RPO game will be suffocated all day.

Bet: Michigan -19.5 (-110)

Old Dominion @ Southern Mississippi

Old Dominion

  • 20th in RROE on Standard Downs (+7.8%)
  • 14th in RROE on Passing Downs (+9.2%)

Southern Mississippi

  • 97th in Def Power Success Rate
  • 101st in Def Stuff Rate
  • 96th in Def Line Yards
  • 48th in Def Rush Success Rate
  • 129th in Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 72nd in Def PFF Rush Grade
  • 95th in Standard Downs Rate

What is puzzling to me in this matchup is that Southern Miss is horrendous in every underlying metric except Def Rush Success Rate. They struggle at forcing negative plays and get manhandled in the trenches regularly. Let’s not get it twisted here. ODU is not a juggernaut in the trenches, but this angle we are looking at is simple. They run the ball at a high rate, and Southern Miss is objectively bad at stopping that.

Bet: ODU +1.5 (-110) + ODU ML (+102) for Teasers

Rutgers @ Wisconsin 

Rutgers

  • 26th in RROE on Standard Downs (+6.6%)
  • 24th in RROE on Passing Downs (+7.1%)

Wisconsin

  • 8th in Def Power Success Rate
  • 23rd in Def Stuff Rate
  • 81st in Def Line Yards
  • 61st in Def Rush Success Rate
  • 98th in Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 110th in Def PFF Rush Grade
  • 59th in Standard Downs Rate

Two categories stand out to me in this matchup:  Wisconsin is 98th in Def Rush IsoPPP and 110th in Def PFF Rush Grade. Wisconsin could possibly stifle Rutgers in certain situations, but they will also give up some big plays and be out of position in others. Rutgers’ RROE protects their defense from being on the field against this Air Raid attack of Wisconsin. They will look to shorten the game and limit Wisconsin’s possessions. Rutgers +14 is a strong play.

Bet: Rutgers +14 (-110)

South Florida @ UAB

South Florida

  • 27th in RROE on Standard Downs (+6.4%)
  • 7th in RROE on Passing Downs (+13.9%)

UAB

  • 131st in Def Power Success Rate
  • 119th in Def Stuff Rate
  • 132nd in Def Line Yards
  • 131st in Def Rush Success Rate
  • 101st in Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 107th in Def Rush PFF Grade
  • 111th in Standard Downs Rate

South Florida is a rare team with a higher RROE on Passing Downs than Standard Downs. The great thing about that is they have a concrete identity of what they want to do. They want to run the ball at all costs. Lucky for them, they have a matchup against arguably the worst rush defense in the entire country. If South Florida gets up two scores, the route will be on. I could see them rushing for 300-plus yards in this matchup in dominating fashion.

Bet: South Florida -3.5 (-110) + South Florida (-170) ML for Parlays

The Bets

ML Parlay

  • South Florida ML (-170)
  • Navy ML (-230)
  • Arkansas +11.5 (-110)

Parlay Odds: +327 for 1.5u

Teaser (6pts)

  • Texas A&M +2.5 to +8.5
  • Michigan -19.5 to -13.5

Teaser Odds: -110 for 2u

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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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