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College Football Week 6 Totals Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

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This article’s focus is to take a look at betting totals in a more nuanced approach. Instead of being like, “The over/under is 65 points. Team A scored 35 points per game (PPG), and Team B scored 40 PPG. I’ll take the over.” We will use several advanced statistics and techniques that might be overlooked in the betting landscape.

So, let’s dive into a quick overview of what we will focus on.

College Football Week 6 Totals Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

Overview

The average over/under total for a college football game is 57.5 points, regardless of the teams, pace, weather, etc. The common thought process for most bettors and fans will be to look at the red zone statistics and see if you have two efficient teams who convert into a lot of TDs. While it is a fine thought process, it is incredibly archaic. The difference between the best team in the red zone and the worst team in the red zone isn’t that significant because you are only dealing with 20 yards of variance.

Also, looking at efficiency on points on a per-game basis assumes each game will be the same, which is entirely false. You need to look at it from an opportunity standpoint with more variance. We will use several advanced statistics to measure how successful the game environment is: PPO (Points Per Opportunity), IsoPPP (explosive plays), Pace, Rush Rate, Projected PPO, and Projected PPO difference.

PPO, also known as finishing drives, is a statistic that extends the “Redzone” from the 20-yard line to the 40-yard line. An incredible 78 percent of a college football game points are scored inside the opponent’s 40-yard lines. I know you are saying,” Well, yeah, that’s not surprising.” The great thing is that it’s a predictable point of emphasis. We can predict PPO based on the offensive/defensive matchup.

Essentially, you can look at a total and say, “The projected PPO needed for this total is X, and that is a difference of +/- what we need.” This will determine whether or not to lean over or under on a total. Now, the other 22% of points scored are volatile, but that’s where IsoPPP (explosive plays) come in. We can simplify betting over/under by looking at it from a numbers-needed standpoint and building the game script with other advanced statistics.

Glossary

  • PPO (Points Per Opportunity): Points scored on each drive inside an opponent’s 40-yard line
  • IsoPPP: Explosive plays typically over 20 yards for passing plays and over 15 yards for rushing plays
  • PPO Projected: Projected opportunity points that are matchup-adjusted
  • PPO Projected Total Difference: Projected opportunity points difference needed to reach the total. Positive differences would lean over, and negative differences lean under
  • PROE: Pass Rate over Expectancy
  • Pace of Play: Plays/sec a higher ranking means a faster pace of play
  • Standard Downs: First down, second and six or less, third/fourth and four or less (Average pass rate is 40%)
  • Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average Pass rate is 60%)

Let’s dive into the eight games we will target this week.

Kansas State @ Oklahoma State over 54.5

  • Average Projected Off IsoPPP Matchup for both teams
  • Average Projected Standard Downs IsoPPP for both teams
  • Average Projected Passing Downs IsoPPP for both teams
  • Projected PPO combined points 47.18
  • Projected PPO difference +5 points
  • Kansas State 44th in Pace
  • Oklahoma State 112th in Pace
  • Kansas State +13.9% in PROE on Standard Downs (15th)
  • Kansas State -6.6% in PROE on Passing Downs (107th)
  • Oklahoma State +10.6% in PROE on Standard Downs (18th)
  • Oklahoma State +9.09% in PROE on Passing Downs (29th)

Several variables are working to our advantage for this game to go over its total. The combined PPO of +5 points is crucial because there isn’t an optimal matchup from an explosive point. Neither team plays at a torrid pace, but they both have high PROE on Standard Downs. This lets us know that both teams want to pass the ball in optimal situations.

Another positive note is Oklahoma State is the underdog in this matchup and has a high PROE on Passing downs, so if they get behind in this game, they will stay aggressive when the situation calls for it.

Bet: Kansas State/Oklahoma State over 54.5

LSU @ Missouri over 64.5

  • Average Projected Off IsoPPP matchups for both teams
  • LSU projected Top 20 Standard Downs IsoPPP matchup
  • Missouri average projected Standard Downs IsoPPP matchup
  • LSU average projected Passing Downs IsoPPP matchup
  • Missouri Projected Top 30 Passing Downs IsoPPP matchup
  • Projected PPO combined points 54.5 points
  • Projected PPO difference +4.6 points
  • LSU 55th in Pace
  • Missouri 71st in Pace
  • LSU +6.1% in PROE on Standard Downs (31st)
  • LSU +5.3% in PROE on Passing Downs (43rd)
  • Missouri -4.3% in PROE on Standard Downs (101st)
  • Missouri +9.3% in PROE on Passing Downs (26th)

This feels like a square take after the massive total that LSU and Ole Miss put up last week, but the numbers indicate it could very well happen again. There are several solid IsoPPP matchups paired with a positive projected PPO difference that could set up a huge game. Both teams are average in Pace but are above average in PROE on Passing Downs. Missouri does want to run the ball in optimal situations but is not afraid to ramp it up when in Passing Downs.

Bet: LSU/Missouri over 64.5 points

Western Michigan @ Mississippi State over 56.5

  • Western Michigan average projected Off IsoPPP matchup
  • Mississippi State projected Top 20 Off IsoPPP matchup
  • Western Michigan average projected Standard Downs IsoPPP matchup
  • Mississippi State projected Top 30 Standard Downs IsoPPP matchup
  • Western Michigan average projected Passing Downs IsoPPP matchup
  • Mississippi State projected Top 30 Passing Downs IsoPPP matchup
  • Projected PPO combined points 49.3
  • Projected PPO difference +5.6 points
  • Western Michigan 8th in Pace
  • Mississippi State 95th in Pace
  • Western Michigan -1.2% in PROE on Standard Downs (85th)
  • Western Michigan -6.2% in PROE on Passing Downs (104th)
  • Mississippi State -2.2% in PROE on Standard Downs (88th)
  • Mississippi State -4.4% in PROE on Passing Downs (98th)

This is a tricky matchup, but a couple of areas lean toward a fruitful scoring environment. Mississippi State has fortuitous IsoPPP matchups across the board, while Western Michigan’s are not horrendous, just average. Also, Western Michigan plays at an elite pace that could drive the entire game. If Western Michigan sees success with that pace, it will lend to Mississippi State having more possessions, too. Neither team has a high PROE on Standard Downs or Passing Downs, but the high projected PPO difference tells us that can be made up for in pure opportunities.

Bet: Western Michigan/ Mississippi State over 56.5

Maryland @ Ohio State under 58.5

  • Average projected Off IsoPPP and Standard Downs IsoPPP matchups for both teams
  • Maryland bottom 30 projected Passing Downs IsoPPP matchup
  • Projected PPO combined points 37.6
  • Projected PPO difference -7.5 points
  • Maryland 75th in Pace
  • Ohio State 125th in Pace
  • Maryland +14.8% PROE on Standard Downs (14th)
  • Maryland +3.6% PROE on Passing Downs (52nd)
  • Ohio State +3.6% PROE on Standard Downs (47th)
  • Ohio State +9.4% PROE on Passing Downs (25th)

There are several factors leaning towards a possible slog of a game. Firstly, Ohio State plays at a monotonous pace. Pair that with average to below-average IsoPPP matchups, and we could be looking at elongated, time-consuming drives. The projected PPO difference of -7.5 points is alarming for anyone thinking this could be a shootout. Both teams do pass at a high PROE on both Standard Downs and Passing Downs, but the lack of explosive plays makes that a moot point. This game sets up for a plethora of field goal attempts and stalled-out drives.

Bet: Maryland/Ohio State under 58.5

Northern Illinois @ Akron under 43.5

  • Northern Illinois average projected Off IsoPPP and Passing Downs IsoPPP matchups
  • Northern Illinois bottom 30 projected Standard Downs IsoPPP matchup
  • Akron bottom 30 projected Off IsoPPP and Standard Downs IsoPPP matchups
  • Akron average projected Passing Downs IsoPPP matchup
  • Projected combined PPO points 27.6
  • Projected PPO difference -5.9 points
  • Northern Illinois 60th in Pace
  • Akron 120th in Pace
  • Northern Illinois -10.8% PROE on Standard Downs (118th)
  • Northern Illinois +2.1% PROE on Passing Downs (63rd)
  • Akron +9.5% PROE on Standard Downs (22nd)
  • Akron +1.2% PROE on Passing Downs (69th)

This could possibly be one of the ugliest games of the week. Luckily, we do not discriminate against ugly games. We embrace them for the value that we can get on the under. The -5.9 projected PPO paired with bottom 30 IsoPPP matchups for both teams sets up a possible paint-drying game. Another positive for the under is Northern Illinois -10.8% PROE on Standard Downs. Having a favorite with a low PROE on Standard Downs means they will run the ball with the lead and take little risks to extend that lead.

Bet: Northern Illinois/Akron under 43.5

Arkansas State @ Troy over 52.5

  • Average projected Off IsoPPP, Standard Downs IsoPPP, and Passing Downs IsoPPP matchups for both teams
  • Projected PPO combined points 47.6
  • Projected PPO difference +7.1 points
  • Arkansas State 42nd in Pace
  • Troy 36th in Pace
  • Arkansas State -.001% PROE on Standard Downs (77th)
  • Arkansas State +12.4% PROE on Passing Downs (17th)
  • Troy +7.9% PROE on Standard Downs (27th)
  • Troy +9.1% PROE on Passing Downs (28th)

Here, we have a total that could be crushed by halftime. Both teams play at a high pace and have a high PROE. Even with the IsoPPP matchups being average, the PPO difference is significant. Arkansas State’s QB Jaylen Raynor has turned the entire offense around and has provided a spark that could drive this game script. Expect a lot of passes and a lot of opportunities inside the 40s.

Bet: Arkansas State/Troy over 52.5 

Arkansas @ Ole Miss under 63.5

  • Arkansas average projected Off IsoPPP, Standard Downs IsoPPP, and Passing Downs IsoPPP matchups
  • Ole Miss average projected Off IsoPPP and Standard Downs IsoPPP matchups
  • Ole Miss top 30 projected Passing Downs IsoPPP matchup
  • Projected PPO combined points 43.3
  • Projected PPO difference -5.8 points
  • Arkansas 108th in Pace
  • Ole Miss 57th in Pace
  • Arkansas -12.3% in PROE on Standard Downs (121st)
  • Arkansas -5.7% in PROE on Passing Downs (116th)
  • Ole Miss -2.5% in PROE on Standard Downs (90th)
  • Ole Miss +3.7% in PROE on Passing Downs (50th)

I know what you are thinking: under on an Ole Miss game after last week’s offensive explosion? Well, the thought process is simple. Arkansas is a high-rush-rate team with a plodding pace and will limit possessions from the Ole Miss offense. Does this sound familiar? Yes, it does because it just happened against Alabama several weeks ago. Alabama plays at a nearly identical Pace and has a similar PROE profile. I know it is scary to take this under, but if you lean into the tendencies of the teams playing, there is a clear path to victory here.

Bet: Arkansas/Ole Miss under 63.5

The Bets

Favorite Plays

  • Maryland/Ohio State under 58.5
  • Arkansas/Ole Miss under 63.5

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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