College Football Week 7 Early Lines, Odds & Predictions: Oklahoma vs. Kansas (2022)
Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 7 odds, picks, and predictions for this week’s game: Oklahoma vs. Kansas.
Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 7 College Football Power Rankings >>
College Football Week 7 Early Odds, Picks & Prediction: Oklahoma vs. Kansas
Decimated by injury on Saturday, Oklahoma was demoralized by Texas on the field 49-0.
OU QB Dillon Gabriel sat out with a concussion. Injuries also withheld safeties, Billy Bowman and Damond Harmon. In the days leading up to the game, LB Shane Whittier was announced out for the year with a left shoulder injury.
OU HC Brent Venables has expressed optimism that Gabriel will return this weekend against Kansas. Gabriel might be worth 10 points on the spread for OU – his status is enormous for this handicap. My adjusted number above is with Gabriel – if he’s out, I’d favor Kansas. The drop-off to Davis Beville is that large.
The interesting thing about Venables’ public optimism about Gabriel’s status is it would seem to contradict the old Oklahoma policy of a mandatory two-week sit-out period for a confirmed concussion diagnosis. I will do more digging this coming week to ascertain if Venables’ regime has done away with that policy or if a loophole is available (if, say, Gabriel wasn’t officially medically diagnosed – though Gabriel being in the concussion protocol would seemingly contradict that).
OU’s health outlook on the defensive side is also not the best. Without OU S Bowman prowling deep, Texas had no problem hunting for the long ball. Venables has already said Bowman is out this weekend.
Meanwhile, Venables was terrified of LB depth publicly before Shane Whittier’s injury. The Sooners’ depth is now in a perilous spot and is down to four active, healthy linebackers on scholarship. One walk-on was already being used off the bench.
Venables is famous for replacer concepts (disguising blitzes/coverages by having defenders “replace†a blitzer or someone replacing someone else, which causes confusion post-snap for young quarterbacks and puts pressure on offensive lines because heat can come from any direction). He gives his linebackers lots of responsibility.
Inexperience and a dearth of talent among healthy OU linebackers will be a problem for the rest of the season. For the obvious reason, and also because it’s either going to stretch the remaining healthy LB to play the way Venables traditionally wants to play, or Venables will be forced to go vanilla, neutering his long-time schematic advantage on defense.
The Jayhawks also have a quarterback injury to monitor. Kansas QB Jalon Daniels suffered a throwing shoulder injury against TCU. His status is currently unknown. Daniels’ backup, Jason Bean, lit up TCU off the bench in the second half, going 16-for-24 for 262 yards, four TD, and one INT.
Bean started in 2020 at North Texas and also started the first nine games for KU last season before suffering an injury. Bean has a solid arm, and he’s a former Texas prep track star who is one of the fastest players on the team (some, including Bean himself, believe he’s the fastest).
As crazy as this sounds in lieu of Daniels’ great start… Bean isn’t much of a downgrade. That’s not a knock on Daniels. Bean is just one of the FBS’ best backup quarterbacks.
Long story short: Arrow way down on OU defense. Monitor the QB statues on both sides. Gabriel-to-Beville is worth around 10 points to OU. Daniels-to-Bean is maybe worth a point to KU.
Kansas is a live underdog.
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting “against the spread†refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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