College Football Week 7: Early Lines, Odds, & Predictions

Week 7 is set to be the most entertaining college football slate in 2024, despite multiple top-ten teams, including No. 1 Alabama, losing outright in Week 6. No. 1 Texas and No. 18 Oklahoma face off in the Red River Rivalry game, No. 9 Ole Miss plays No. 13 LSU at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and No. 2 Ohio State travels to take on the No. 3 Oregon Ducks on Saturday night in a battle of undefeated Big Ten teams.

Week 6 saw us go 1-3 with my Week 6 best bets, losing Oregon -24 on a last-minute field goal conversion from Michigan State, while Missouri laid an egg in an ugly 41-10 loss on the road against Texas A&M. Cal scored at will against Miami but couldn’t hold onto a 25-point lead in the second-half, ruining under 54.5 total points early in the fourth quarter, while Washington’s 27-17 win over Michigan cashed our lone winner at over 41.5 total points.

Let’s get back to earning profit in Week 7 with my latest line movement analysis to help us place three winning wagers on a loaded Week 7 college football slate.

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College Football Early Line Movement: Week 7

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Away	Home	Open Spread	Current Spread	Open Total	Current Total	Spread +/-	Total +/-
Texas	Oklahoma	+14.5	+14.5	51	49	0	-2
Ole Miss	LSU	+1.5	+3.5	64	63.5	-2	-0.5
Ohio State	Oregon	+2	+3	51.5	53	-1	+1.5

Texas (1) vs. Oklahoma (18)

Texas and Oklahoma are a combined 9-1 in 2024, with the Longhorns sitting at No. 1 in the AP poll rankings. Texas QB Quinn Ewers is expected to make his return from injury against the Sooners at the neutral field Cotton Bowl site on Saturday afternoon, while Oklahoma has committed to freshman QB Michael Hawkins Jr. after Jackson Arnold failed to produce against Tennessee during their 25-15 loss at home in Week 4.

Texas has the second best scoring defense in the FBS, allowing 7 points per game, while Oklahoma isn’t far behind at No. 19, allowing 16 points per contest. This may be a much more smash-mouth, physical game than we’ve seen between these two opponents in recent years, resulting in fewer points.

The point spread remains -14.5 in favor of Texas, while the point total has dropped from 51 to 49. Winning by 15 points is a tall task for Texas, who hasn’t played a difficult schedule outside of a dominant 31-12 road win against Michigan back in Week 2. Oklahoma is more battle-tested based on their schedule played thus far.

I like taking the points with Oklahoma at +14.5 against Texas. The Sooners have a great dual-threat quarterback in Hawkins and a lot of talent on defense to contain Ewers during his first game back from injury. Their one loss was by a 10-point margin to Tennessee and despite Texas going 4-1 ATS and winning every game by at least 15 points this season, I expect a much more competitive game against Oklahoma on a neutral field, especially with momentum gained rallying on the road to beat Auburn in their last outing.

Best Bet: Oklahoma +14.5 (-110)

Ole Miss (9) vs. LSU (13)

Ole Miss and LSU should provide a highly entertaining matchup in Death Valley on Saturday night as a pair of top-15 SEC opponents collide in Baton Rouge. The Rebels lost 20-17 at home against unranked Kentucky a couple of weeks ago, while LSU dropped their first game of the season 27-24 to USC.

Ole Miss has looked much more pedestrian on offense during conference play, failing to score more than 27 points against Kentucky or South Carolina. Their defense remains stout, ranked third in points per game (7.5), so it’ll be interesting to watch how LSU’s high-octane passing attack fares against a stingy Ole Miss pass defense.

LSU is now getting +3.5 on the point spread against Ole Miss, making the Tigers home underdogs. LSU has won both of their previous matchups against Ole Miss at home outright, and its defense, which has been susceptible to big plays, may fare better against an Ole Miss offense that hasn’t been able to generate as much explosive scoring compared to what we saw during their first few weeks against bad opponents.

63.5 total points is the current total, and while it’s tempting to bet under this line, I’d prefer to back LSU on the point spread catching +3.5 as a home underdog. Ole Miss’ defense hasn’t faced an offense this good yet in 2024, while LSU’s defense should be able to do enough to stop QB Jaxson Dart and the rest of the Rebels’ offense on Saturday night.

Best Bet: LSU +3.5 (-112)

Ohio State (2) vs. Oregon (3)

Ohio State and Oregon is the matchup of the Week 7 slate, as the Buckeyes travel to Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon to play the 5-0 Oregon Ducks. Both teams are undefeated and have National Championship aspirations in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff format.

The Buckeyes defense is No. 1 in the FBS in points allowed (6.8), meaning Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel may continue to struggle in the red zone, following two interceptions thrown against Michigan State in this area of the field. Gabriel has been very good at completing passes from the pocket but he’ll face a lot of pressure from Ohio State’s defensive front, which could lead to more bad decisions and turnovers forced by the Buckeyes.

On the other side, Ohio State’s offense is fully loaded, ranging from RB Quinshon Judkins, to star freshman WR Jeremiah Smith. QB Will Howard has been great under center for the Buckeyes, executing OC Chip Kelly’s system with high efficiency metrics. Kelly returns to Eugene, where he previously coached, so this is a bit of a revenge game narrative for him.

Oddsmakers have Ohio State favored at -3 on the point spread, where they’ve gone 3-2 ATS, covering two straight weeks against Big Ten opponents. Oregon has not been profitable as a big favorite in 2024, going 1-4 ATS, while cashing 3-2 on the point total under.

The Buckeyes have gone from -2 to -3 since opening, while the point total has crept up from 51.5 to 53. It’s tough to beat Oregon at home, but there’s added pressure on Ohio State, who assembled the most expensive roster via NIL deal money amongst any FBS program leading into the regular season. Head coach Ryan Day is no stranger to big games, so we’ll take on a bit of juice and opt to bet on the Buckeyes at -155 moneyline odds, as they have a better offense and a significantly better defense than the Ducks.

Best Bet: Ohio State Moneyline (-155)