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College Football Week 7 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Long Shot Bets (2023)

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We've reached the unofficial halfway point of the College Football regular season. We now have a better picture of the identity of many teams across the country. However, due to the unbalanced scheduling that makes College Football beautiful, there is still a lot to learn. More importantly, there is a lot of opportunity for long shot upsets.

Here are a few of my favorite upset spots for Week 7 of College Football:

Best College Football Week 7 Long Shot Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Akron Zips (+375) at Central Michigan Chippewas (-11)

I'm not going to lie; this one is ugly. Record-wise, Akron has been one of if not the single-worst programs in FBS over the last few years. However, HC Joe Moorhead is showing signs of having this team turn around. The Zips, in back-to-back weeks, took Indiana and Buffalo to overtime before falling just short. These moral victories were short-lived, as Akron lost their QB DJ Irons in the Buffalo game to a torn ACL.

Akron came out last week to NIU, and after scoring on their first drive, they were outpaced 48-7 for the remainder of the game. Obviously, this doesn't bode well for their expectations going forward, but I think it's an opportunity to take them at a discount. The loss of Irons hurts, but we really don't know how it'll affect the Zips because it was the defense that fell apart last week. This Central Michigan offense doesn't scare me, though. They rank 120th in SP+ offense and have struggled to run the ball, something Akron had difficulty stopping against NIU. So long as the Chippewas can't have their way on offense, Akron has a shot to stay in this.

As bad as the CMU offense is, the defense is even worse. They've given up 23 or more to each opponent they've faced and 30+ to all but one. This includes a New Hampshire team from the FCS ranks that dropped 42 on them. This is the perfect opportunity to break in a new QB in the offense for the Zips. They should be able to have success and stay close in this game. Matchups in the MAC like to get weird and there's nothing weirder than a huge upset!

Wyoming Cowboys (+300) at Air Force Falcons (-10.5)

We need to talk about Wyoming. The Cowboys got off to a great start with big wins over Texas Tech and Fresno State. However, both of these came at home in Laramie at night. Going on the road has been a different story. The Cowboys only have one road game on the resumé so far, and it was a loss at Texas 31-10. Still, the final score doesn't tell the whole story. Wyoming entered the fourth quarter tied 10-10, outgaining the Longhorns 235-175. Things fell apart late, but they were right in it.

Air Force will present its own challenges to this Wyoming team. The Falcons have managed to move the ball quite well all season, although their schedule leaves a bit to be desired. Per SP+ rankings, this will be the toughest matchup the Falcons offense has played all year. The closest comparison is a Sam Houston State defense that held Air Force to just 258 yards of total offense, even though they dominated the time of possession battle. The Bearkats held Air Force to a season-low 13 points.

This is a really well-coached Wyoming team, and that type of discipline is critical to beating a service academy. Both of these teams are dark horses to earn the Group of 5 NY6 Bowl invite. A win by either program will be huge in meeting that goal. With a win by the Cowboys, coupled with wins over Fresno and Texas Tech, this could be a springboard for a really special season in Laramie.

UAB Blazers (+305) at UTSA Roadrunners (-10)

Coming off of two historical seasons for UTSA, they've fallen off a bit in 2023. Star QB Frank Harris isn't healthy. He looked the best he's looked all year last week against Temple, but that's not a world-class defense. Many of the weapons that Harris has had at his disposal over the last few years have moved on either through graduation or the portal. Their offensive results all year have shown that this just isn't the same offense, and the defense has been underwhelming as well. Ranked 87th in SP+, they've allowed 34 or more in three consecutive games. UAB has shown an ability to put up points this year and should have success again here.

QB Jacob Zeno has been phenomenal for the Blazers, averaging over 300 yards per game in the air with 12 TDS. The Blazers' overall record isn't terribly impressive, but that's a product of a difficult schedule that has included the likes of Georgia and Tulane. What has impressed me about the Blazers is that they've been able to put up points against even those stout teams. They're a team that has covered three straight games by an average of 15.7 points, playing their best ball of the year and outperforming Vegas’ expectations. I don't think we've found the peak yet for UAB and I'm selling high on a UTSA team that isn't what they used to be. I like the Blazers outright.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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