College Football Week 7 Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Under-the-Radar Plays (2022)
We returned to our winning ways with a 3-1 Week 6 that was relatively stress-free. The Week 7 slate is absolutely loaded with six matchups between top-25 teams and a handful of other intriguing games. But you know by now that we’re not going to be talking about those games here. In fact, some of the games mentioned in this week’s column probably won’t be talked about anywhere else.
Here are my under-the-radar picks for Week 7:
2022 season record: 12-9-1
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kent State Golden Flashes at Toledo Rockets -7.5, Total 61.5
We begin with some Saturday afternoon MACtion. Toledo is seeking a 3-0 start to conference play, while Kent State looks to win its first road game in five tries this season.
For those unfamiliar with Kent State, they utilize a strong rushing attack that’s averaged more than 200 yards per game this season. That’s even more impressive when you consider Kent State has played Washington, Oklahoma and Georgia this season.
The problem is Toledo’s run defense has been stout during conference play, allowing just 173 yards on 67 carries in wins over Central Michigan and Northern Illinois. The Rockets should have no trouble stopping the run and forcing Kent State to go to the air more than it prefers to.
Toledo’s top 50 defense should control this game, presenting value on the under. I also don’t mind a play on Toledo if at -7.5 or better.
The pick: Under 61.5
Arkansas Razorbacks -1.5 at BYU Cougars, Total 66.5
Who would’ve thought a few weeks ago that this game would qualify as an under-the-radar play? Both teams enter this game off a loss, and Arkansas has dropped three in a row in SEC play. The Razorbacks will look to get right against a Cougars squad that lost a tight game in Las Vegas to Notre Dame.
The key to beating Arkansas is shutting down its 10th-ranked rushing offense led by dual threat quarterback K.J. Jefferson, who missed last week’s loss to Mississippi State with a concussion. While it isn’t official yet, signs point to Jefferson playing this weekend in Provo. And if he’s good to go, the Razorbacks could run wild on a BYU defense that’s surrendering 172 rushing yards per game and just allowed the Fighting Irish to run for 234 yards last weekend.
BYU’s offense got star receivers Gunnar Romney and Puka Nacua back, but neither made a significant difference in the loss to Notre Dame. If both wideouts are at full strength, then BYU’s offense could have a field day against a dreadful Razorbacks defense that ranks 128th against the pass.
Arkansas has the more talented roster and enters this game as the more desperate team. But I’m more confident in this game being a shootout.
The pick: Over 66.5, lean Arkansas ML
Arizona Wildcats at Washington Huskies -14, Total 73
After starting the season 4-0, the Washington Huskies have dropped two straight games in PAC 12 play, including an inexplicable loss to Arizona State last week.
This handicap is pretty simple. Washington’s biggest weakness is its pass defense. The Huskies have given up 291 passing yards per game in its four games against Power Five conference foes. That plays right into the hands of an Arizona offense that thrives through the air, ranking 10th nationally with 323.5 passing yards per game.
Arizona should have no problem moving the ball against Washington. And if the Wildcats can come up with a stop or two on defense - which won’t be easy considering Arizona ranks 109th in total defense - they should be able to stay within a couple of touchdowns.
The pick: Arizona +14.5
Nevada Wolf Pack -6.5 at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, Total 49.5
Does it get any more under-the-radar than betting the Hawaii game that kicks off at 11 p.m. ET? Unfortunately for anyone not on the West Coast, this game could put you to sleep, even if you have money on it.
These offenses are both dreadful. The Rainbow Warriors rank 118th in total offense, averaging 318 yards per game. On the other side, Nevada ranks 122nd and averages 293.3 yards per game. Both teams rank 110th or worse in passing offense and barely crack the top 100 in rushing offense.
You know where I’m headed here. Points will be hard to come by. And if you decide to stay up to watch this game, let’s hope it’s so boring that it puts you to sleep.
The pick: Under 49.5
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