Top 5 College Football Week 7 Picks & Predictions (2024)
College football betting expert Scott Bogman will provide his top picks and predictions for each and every week of CFB action. Let’s get ready for this weekend’s games with Bogman’s best college football bets for Week 7. Check out all of his top picks and predictions below.
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College Football Week 7 Picks & Predictions
UNLV vs. Utah State (Friday)
Utah State has been as bad as anyone on defense this season, but they have at least added some scoring by giving the reigns to Iowa transfer QB Spencer Petras. Petras passing line in his two starts has been 53/86 for 665 yards, 5 TDs, and 1 INT. UNLV has allowed 300-yard passers in back-to-back games, and Utah State doesn't quit; they put up 507 yards against Boise State last week and 30 points. The Utah State defense has been one of the worst in the country, and this week isn't likely to help. The Aggies are 131st in scoring defense (41.4 Points Allowed Per Game), 123rd in rush yards allowed (216.2), and 120th in passing yards allowed (266.6). UNLV comes into this game with a Top 10 scoring and rushing offense and are likely to continue the embarrassment of this defense. Utah State will be throwing the ball a lot to try to catch up to UNLV's lead, which will likely lead to either more points for them or turnovers and short fields for UNLV. This is a big number, but UNLV will do the majority. Utah State has looked much improved on offense with the change at quarterback, and this game has a chance to be one of the week’s highest-scoring games.
Pick: OVER 65.5
Penn State vs. USC
Penn State is a road favorite across the country against USC, but this is not a late start, and Penn State is deserving of its #4 ranking. USC has improved defensively from last season but is still losing the battle against the run, ranking 87th (158 YAPG) in rush yards allowed. Penn State is averaging over 200 rush yards per game and is 9th in rush attempts over 10 yards. Penn State is getting back their best RB, Nicholas Singleton, this week after missing last week’s game with a stomach bug. USC also has issues on the OL, which ranks 128th in Pass Blocking Grade and 119th in Run Blocking Grade on PFF. Penn State has a Top-10 DL roster strength, has 13 sacks, and is 4th in rushing yards allowed per game and yards per attempt. Penn State has held four of their five opponents to season-low totals. USC has faced a Top-5 strength of schedule through five games and this is still the best defense they have faced. Penn State is stronger at the line of scrimmage on both sides, and home-field advantage doesn't seem like enough for USC.
Pick: Penn State -4
Mississippi State vs. Georgia
This will not be a crazy SEC upset, but anything with 30 points is a lot to cover for any team. Mississippi State isn't a great team, but they have experience in a road game against a Top-10 opponent already in Texas two weeks ago. Mississippi State did allow 522 yards, was sacked six times, and lost a fumble, but they still covered. Georgia is in a look-ahead spot with Texas next week and has failed to cover in 3 straight games. Mississippi State QB Blake Shapen went down for the season, and they have slowed down the tempo with new starter Michael Van Buren. Jeff Lebby said they will be 'week-to-week' in slowing the pace down and attempting to control the clock, but it will likely be employed in this challenging road game. Mississippi State has had two weeks to prepare for this game and is getting back some players on defense, and while this one isn't likely to be pretty for them, they should have enough to cover this massive spread.
Pick: Mississippi State +33.5
Ole Miss vs. LSU
This matchup has been rough for Ole Miss when on the road in their recent history with seven straight road losses against LSU. The BP Systems still shows value toward Ole Miss in this game, as Ole Miss has been one of the best defenses in the country. The Rebs defense is currently 3rd in Points allowed Per Game and 1st against the run. The Rebs are only 57th in pass yards allowed per game but are also 15th in Yards/Attempt Allowed and 22nd in Opponent Passer Rating. Ole Miss shines brightest rushing the passer; 24 sacks lead the nation, and they got South Carolina QB Sellers six times last week all without their best pass rusher, Princely Umanmielen. LSU has allowed only two sacks this season, but both came against their only SEC opponent, South Carolina. LSU might have enough defense to keep this close for a bit, but this secondary is leaky, ranking 93rd in passing yards allowed and 103rd in completion percentage allowed. The Tiger’s pass rush is legit with 15 sacks, the run defense is slightly above average, but the secondary is the significant weakness that Ole Miss will likely exploit in this game if the pass rush isn't getting home, they have been strong in coverage as well. This is a difficult environment at night for the road team but it seems like they have the advantage on both sides and this line isn't high enough, lay the points.
Pick: Ole Miss -3
Iowa State vs. WVU
West Virginia's offense has been hot after the Week 1 loss to Penn State. WVU is 14th in rushing and has the 25th-fastest pace on offense this season. Iowa State has been strong in coverage but weak against the run and has only nine sacks (89th) this season. The Cyclones have been in the top 10 in scoring defense, but the schedule has been filled with weak offensive opponents (Iowa, Arkansas State, Houston, Baylor). The Mountaineers have been rough defensively allowing 25.6 PPG (84th). Iowa State isn't the most imposing offense but they will put up points if allowed with totals of 52 (Arkansas State) and 43 (Baylor) so far this season and have been extremely balanced on offense in terms of playing calling. Iowa State could be the beneficiary of some turnovers as WVU has given away the ball 8 times (t-81st) and the Cyclones have collected 11 (t-11th). Turnovers lead to short fields and more points. WVU has won more with offense (39.6 PPG in wins) and Iowa State keeps the pedal down late (10 PPG in the 4th quarter, 14th Nationally). The Over is the play here.
Pick: OVER 53.5