College Football Week 7 Picks & Predictions: Bogman’s Best Bets

by Scott Bogman |
Oct 12, 2023

Finally, back to .500! It was a bittersweet week for me with my Longhorns losing, but getting back even was nice. The deeper we get into the Conference schedules, the more we learn about these teams, and the better Iâ€™m feeling!

Hereâ€™s what I like for Week 7 of the College Football season!

College Football Week 7 Picks & Predictions

Week 6 Record: 6-4 | 2023 Record: 30-30 | Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Arkansas @ #11 Alabama

These teams have the firepower to go over this total, but Iâ€™m going to lean on the defensive side for both teams. Arkansas has been relying on KJ Jefferson too heavily. He leads the team in passing and rushing. Raheim â€˜Rocketâ€™ Sanders is back and had eight carries against Ole Miss, but they only went for 15 yards. He doesnâ€™t seem to be quite right yet. Alabama is currently 14th in scoring, 24th in rushing and 30th in passing on the defensive side of the ball. PFF has Bama as the No. 1 graded team on defense after theyâ€™ve allowed only 10 PPG in their last three games.

Offensively, Alabama is nowhere near their peak, although they are improving. The Tide put up 40 against Mississippi State two weeks ago and 26 on a tough Texas A&M defense. Jalen Milroe has been better recently. He put up over 300 yards passing against Texas A&M and only has one turnover in the last two weeks.

Offensively, Bama is 55th in scoring, 85th in passing and 84th in rushing. They are building, but they arenâ€™t there yet, especially with an SEC schedule. Arkansas is tied for the most pick-sixs in the nation with three, but I donâ€™t think Bama will put the ball in harmâ€™s way too often in this one. Arkansas is a little above average in plays per game, but I expect Alabama to set the tone, and they are a bit below average. This should be a low-scoring, punt-heavy, field position type of battle that bleeds the clock and cruises to the Under.

Bet: UNDER 47.0 (-110)

#18 UCLA @ #15 Oregon State

Betting Unders may not be the most fun part of betting, but winning money is, and Iâ€™ll go with another in this game! UCLA is eighth in scoring defense, third against the run (the Beaversâ€™ strength), and 24th against the pass. UCLA only allowed Washington State to score 17 points last week when their previous low was 31 against Wisconsin. This team is also getting turnovers, with 13 already in games.

Oregon State saw a nice burst of offense in two of the last three weeks, putting up 35 against Wazzu and 52 against Cal last week. QB DJ Uiagalelei looked awesome in that game, going 19/25 with 275 and five TDs. The rushing attack is ranked 16th in YPG and is the strength of this team behind RBs Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick.

UCLA is middle of the road in scoring offense at 63rd, 44th in passing offense, and 23rd in rushing. At least the Oregon State defense is above average. The Beavers are 35th in scoring, allowing just under 20 PPG, 16th against the run, and a little below average at 77th against the pass. I like UCLA in this game straight up, but I think itâ€™s going to be fairly low-scoring, and both teams offensively feed into the strength of the opposing defense. It will be a close one that could be impacted by some ugly weather, as well. Give me the Under!

Bet: UNDER 54.0 (-110)

Syracuse @ #4 Florida State

I will take the Seminoles in this game. Syracuse has been getting torched on defense. North Carolina just put up 644 yards on them â€“ 442 passing and 202 rushing. This is the hardest part of the Syracuse schedule. They played Clemson at home and got stomped, went on the road to UNC and got stomped and now they are on the road again against Florida State. This is a big number for a Florida State team that hasnâ€™t been playing at their peak yet, but I think they can cruise past this number as the Tar Heels did.

Jordan Travis hasnâ€™t been perfect, but he has 12 TDs and only one INT this season. He has some big-time targets in Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson (questionable, but he says heâ€™ll play). Transfer TE Jaheim Bell hasnâ€™t even gotten going yet, and he could be dangerous for this offense too. RB Trey Benson is averaging 7.6 YPC and had two of the top -0 fastest timed plays last Week against VaTech, finally going over 100 yards with 200 and two TDs. Syracuse has played well on defense. They forced 10 turnovers and grade well on PFF, but they have allowed 31 to Clemson and 40 to UNC in their last two games against ACC opponents.

Syracuse has the same results on offense as defense in that they averaged 44 PPG in their non-conference schedule and have only scored 21 points against Clemson and UNC. Florida State is the best team that Syracuse will play this season. While the cash in on Syracuse this week, signaling the public thinks FSU might be looking ahead to Duke, I think itâ€™s more likely Syracuse is looking ahead to the bye week. The Noles are clicking on offense, and Syracuse wonâ€™t be able to keep up. Florida State wins big.

Bet: Florida State -17.5 (-110)

Auburn @ #22 LSU

Auburn is getting the love. Theyâ€™ve had two weeks to prepare for this game, and they are a solid SEC team. However, LSU is clicking on offense and is favored by double-digits because of it. LSU has scored 41, 34 and 49 twice against SEC opponents. Their low score of the season was 24 in Week 1 against Florida State. I donâ€™t think they will hang 40 on Auburn, but 35 is likely.

Auburn should be able to score on LSU, but the team is as inept on offense as LSU is on defense. Auburn is inefficient and currently ranks 121st in passing yards per game. PFF has them at 79 in pass grade. LSU ranks 123rd against the pass, but I donâ€™t think Auburn has enough juice to get it going. The most passing yards Auburn has in a game against an FBS opponent this season is the 230 they put up against California. They have been held under 100 in both the SEC games theyâ€™ve played against Texas A&M and Georgia.

LSU will load up the box on defense to stop the run. They might give up big plays, but Auburn being one-dimensional gives LSU a big advantage. This will be the hardest battle of the season for the LSU offense. Still, I feel like they can score on anyone. If they get up and force Auburn to go to their weak passing game, they win going away, and the total will be less than 60. LSU wins, and Auburn has a hard time scoring, making this a low-scoring SEC battle that ends in the neighborhood of 30-17 to hit both sides of this bet!

Bet: LSU -11 (-110) + UNDER 61.0 (-110)

Other Bets I Like:

Stanford @ Colorado -11 (-110)
Ohio State @ Purdue OVER 49.0 (-112)
Arizona @ Washington State -8.0 (-110)
Marshall +1.0 @ Georgia State (-110)
Missouri @ #23 Kentucky OVER 51.5 (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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